1-2 Developments Centered Around the U.S. and China

(1) Transition from the Trump Administration to the Biden Administration

A The U.S. under the Trump Administration

In 2020, the final year in office for President Trump, the U.S. faced significant challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic and racial divides.

In late January, the first COVID-19 case in the U.S. was confirmed, and on the 31st of that month, President Trump declared a public health emergency. However, infections spread rapidly in the U.S. in March, and by the end of the month, the cumulative number of cases surpassed that of China, making the U.S. the country with the highest number of COVID-19 cases in the world. Accordingly, curfews and restrictions on economic activities were imposed throughout the U.S. While the U.S. economy had a strong performance until then, it suffered a major blow following such measures. The unemployment rate, which had hit a 60-year low in February before cases spread (3.5%), rapidly declined to the worst level in the postwar period in April (14.8%). The real GDP growth rate for 2020 decreased by 3.5% compared to the previous year, marking the second lowest growth rate in the postwar period after that in 1946 (-11.6%).

Meanwhile, protests against racial discrimination, which had been casting a dark shadow over the American society, intensified across the country. In May, a black man, Mr. George Floyd, was neck restrained by the knee of a white police officer in Minnesota and died. A video showing Mr. Floyd being pinned to the ground and pleading, “I can't breathe,” went viral, and a protest against racial discrimination developed into a nationwide Black Lives Matter movement. Clashes with police led to many arrests, casualties and injuries in some cities, and the removal and destruction of statues of historical figures, including bronze statues of Civil War Confederate generals. In August, protests were reignited by the shooting of a black man, Mr. Jacob Blake, by a white police officer in Wisconsin. With regard to the Black Lives Matter movement, President Trump stated that to protect the people from riots by the far-left and anarchists, he would take stern measures by giving top priority to maintaining “law and order.” As a result, racial disparities and the maintenance of “law and order” became major issues in the presidential election.

In the face of these major domestic challenges, the Trump administration advocated an “America First” diplomacy and promoted its unique foreign policy. The Trump administration had seceded or withdrawn from multilateral arrangements, including the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the United Nations Human Rights Council, and the Paris Agreement. In July, the U.S. notified the United Nations (UN) of its intention to also withdraw from the World Health Organization (WHO) in one year. Furthermore, in July, it announced plans to reduce the number of U.S. troops stationed in Germany, further distancing the U.S. from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

B Inauguration of the Biden Administration

In the presidential election on November 3, former Vice President Joseph Biden received more than 81 million popular votes, the most in history, and the Biden administration was inaugurated on January 20, 2021. Even before taking office, President Biden announced that he would cooperate with other countries, and outlined the priorities of the new administration including measures against COVID-19, reconstruction of the economy, racial equity and response to climate change. On his first day in office, President Biden signed 17 executive actions, including executive orders, and demonstrated a new U.S. at home and to the world. This included reversing the measures taken by the previous Trump administration, such as reversing the decision to withdraw from the WHO and returning to the Paris Agreement. On February 8, 2021, the U.S. announced its return to the UN Human Rights Council, which the U.S. had withdrawn from under the Trump administration.

While expectations for the Biden administration are high in and outside of the U.S., the new administration faces a difficult task at the helm. The U.S. has the highest number of COVID-19 cases in the world (over 28 million as of March 2021), and the prolonged fight against COVID-19 is casting a shadow on the U.S. economy. The Democratic Party secured a majority in both the House and Senate in the congressional elections held on the same day as the presidential election. Although this was a boost for the new administration, the difference in the number of seats between the two parties is minimal in both houses, and it remains to be seen whether the new administration will be able to cooperate with the Republicans in Congress to advance its campaign promises. In addition, the fragmentation of U.S. society is becoming more serious, as was shown by the January 6, 2021, mob attack on the U.S. Capitol, and the administration is charged with the task of uniting the American people.

(2) The Further Rise of China

In recent years, China has made a remarkable rise in various fields, including economy, military and security, and diplomacy.

Due to COVID-19, China's economy temporarily recorded negative growth for the first time since 1992. However, the economy recovered, driven by production, investment and exports. While the economies of major countries experienced negative growth, China had a positive real GDP growth rate in 2020 of 2.3%.

In addition, China's defense spending has increased about 44-fold over the past three decades. According to an annual report released by the U.S. Department of Defense in September, China has already gained capabilities equal to or exceeding those of the U.S. in a number of areas, including shipbuilding, land-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles, and integrated air defense systems.

Furthermore, China sought to expand its international influence in diplomacy while the former Trump administration advocated “America First.” For example, in April, after President Trump announced the suspension of contributions to the WHO, the Government of China announced an additional contribution of 30 million US dollars to the WHO. In addition, China has actively used provision of medical supplies and vaccines for its diplomacy in response to the global spread of COVID-19, with President Xi Jinping announcing that vaccines are a “global public good.” Moreover, China has developed legislation to protect its maritime interests. In January 2021, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress passed the China Coast Guard (CCG) Law, which stipulates the CCG's duty of law enforcement to protect its maritime interests, and this law entered into force the following February.

(3) U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-China relations during the former Trump administration became more tense in 2020. Following on from 2019, the two countries had intense confrontation in a variety of areas, including trade issues and competition over advanced technologies. Their confrontation also extended to the realms of politics, diplomacy, military and security, media and education, and the two countries frequently condemned and sanctioned the other country. For example, the U.S. Congress passed the Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act in June and the Hong Kong Autonomy Act in July, raising calls for strict sanctions and other measures against China. Furthermore, tighter regulations were imposed on many Chinese companies on the grounds of security concerns and other reasons. In addition, when the U.S. closed the Chinese Consulate General in Houston at the end of July, citing it as a base for espionage and intellectual property theft, China responded by closing the U.S. Consulate General in Chengdu. Furthermore, President Trump emphasized China's responsibility for spreading COVID-19, describing it as a “Chinese virus.” In January 2021, the U.S. determined the human rights situation in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region as constituting “genocide.”

The Biden administration, while maintaining a tough stance toward China, is expected to explore cooperation with China wherever possible, such as issues related to international health and climate change. In February 2021, the first U.S.-China Summit telephone call was held since President Biden took office. The U.S. Department of State announced that President Biden underscored his concerns about China's coercive and unfair economic practices, crackdown in Hong Kong, human rights abuses in Xinjiang, and increasingly assertive actions in the region, including toward Taiwan. On the other hand, according to the Chinese announcement, President Xi Jinping stated that cooperation is the only right choice for both sides and proposed the reestablishment of various dialogue mechanisms. This shows his expectation to build cooperative relations with the new administration. The establishment of stable relations between the U.S. and China, the world's first and second largest economies, concerns not only Japan but also the international community as a whole, and future developments will continue to be closely watched.