Japan aspires to ensure its national interests in the political, security and economic domains, as well as to maintain and develop a desirable international order that is based on universal values such as freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law. To this end, Japan needs to pursue strategic diplomacy, while rationally accounting for and adapting to changes in the international situation.

Below is a broad overview of the international situation surrounding Japan and outlook for its diplomacy.

1-1 Overview of the International Situation

The world is undergoing epoch-making changes. Changes in the balance of power in the international arena are accelerating and becoming more complex, while there is a broadening and diversifying array of security challenges, such as emerging challenges related to economic security and others as well as threats in new domains, including outer space and cyberspace. Today, no single country can protect its peace and security on its own.

At the same time, protectionism and inward-looking trends are becoming conspicuous in reaction to rapid globalization, even in countries that have enjoyed the benefits of free trade, such as the U.S. and Europe. Furthermore, the international order based on universal values such as freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law, which has underpinned the stability and prosperity of the world, is being challenged by unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion, as well as by the spread of terrorism and violent extremism.

Against this backdrop, the global spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has threatened human security and exacerbated the trends described above, transforming economies and societies in many parts of the world.

(1) Changes in the International Situation in the Mid- to Long-term

A Changes in the Balance of Power

The balance of power in the international community is shifting dramatically due to the rise of emerging countries, among other factors. Inter-state competition, in which states seek to shape an international order to their advantage as well as to increase their influence, is emerging more prominently. Meanwhile, universal values are facing severer challenges, with the COVID-19 crisis being used to attempt to change the status quo, and there is growing uncertainty over the existing order.

B Diversification and Increased Complexity of Threats

The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles, as well as escalating international terrorism, remain grave challenges for the international community.

At the same time, the scope of national security has further broadened to encompass economic and technological fields in recent years, requiring the enhancement of security policy efforts in these fields. In particular, progress has been made in a new paradigm of technological innovation which can bring about essential changes to the nature of society and people's lives, such as the Internet of Things (IoT), the fifth-generation mobile communications system (5G), artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum technology. Countries are vying with each other to develop technologies linked to national competitiveness and are stepping up efforts to apply these technologies in the security domain. The success or failure of innovations is anticipated to have considerable implications for the security environment.

Furthermore, recent advances in science and technology are ramping up activities in outer space and cyberspace. While this presents major opportunities, it also brings about new risks and threats, making international rule-making an imperative from a security perspective.

C Global Economic Trends (the Emergence of Protectionism, Inward-Looking Trends and Economic Friction)

The world economy has become more interdependent than ever through the development of the global supply chain and financial systems, in line with the progress of globalization and innovation, such as digital technology. Thus, factors such as economic shocks and fluctuations in commodity prices in one region have increasing impacts on other regions or the entire global economy. Moreover, innovative progress in information and communication technologies by the Fourth Industrial Revolution, represented by AI, robotics and Big Data, has been driving further transformation of the international economic order. Furthermore, to enable smoother cross-border economic activities, the maintenance and promotion of a rules-based economic order has become all the more indispensable.

Meanwhile, protectionism and inward-looking trends that have spread as a backlash against globalization are still observed across the world. The backgrounds of such trends are diverse: growing domestic income inequality, job losses, a rise in migrants, global environmental problems, etc. These trends have become even more pronounced as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

D Increasing Seriousness of Global Challenges

Ending poverty is the first goal of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which are development goals for the entire international community. Around the world, the COVID-19 crisis pushed more people into poverty and deepened impoverishment, exacerbating the situation for more vulnerable populations. In such circumstances, efforts to eradicate poverty must be accelerated from the perspective of human security as well.

Infectious diseases threaten human life and health and profoundly impact society as a whole. With the globalization, cross-border movements of people have increased dramatically, and outbreak and transmission of infectious diseases have become a more serious threat. COVID-19 has been raging across the globe since December 2019 with unabated vigor. In January 2021, the world's cumulative cases of COVID-19 infection surpassed 100 million. The virus continues to have a substantial impact on the global economy, and hopes are pinned on the resumption of socio-economic activities as vaccines are rolled out.

In addition, the severity of natural disasters is forecast to continue to intensify with the effects of climate change, and there is a concern that this will have a profound impact, especially on people in vulnerable environments. Climate change measures are drawing attention also in the context of recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.

To resolve these global challenges, it is crucial to steadily make efforts on the SDGs and address social, economic and environmental issues in an integrated manner, making active use of science and technology and innovations.

(2) The Very Severe Security Environment in East Asia

The security environment surrounding Japan is becoming more testing and uncertain at a remarkably faster speed. Furthermore, countries with outstanding military capabilities both in terms of quality and quantity are concentrated around Japan, and there is a clear tendency of further reinforcement of military capabilities and acceleration of military activities.

A Nuclear and Missile Development by North Korea

North Korea has not carried out the dismantlement of all weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles of all ranges in a complete, verifiable and irreversible manner, in accordance with a series of relevant United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions. Following on from 2019, North Korea launched ballistic missiles four times in March 2020 and again in March 2021. It also displayed possible new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) at the military parade celebrating the 75th anniversary of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) in October and at the military parade celebrating the 8th Congress of the WPK in January 2021.

B China's Strengthening of Military Power without Transparency and Unilateral Attempts to Change the Status Quo

The peaceful development of China should be welcomed by Japan and the entire international community. China, however, continues to increase its defense budget and has been strengthening and modernizing its military power extensively and rapidly without transparency. It also aims to secure superiority in new domains, such as outer space, cyberspace and the electromagnetic spectrum. China continues actions based on its assertions that are incompatible with the existing order of the law of the sea and unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion at sea and in the airspace in areas such as the East and South China Seas.

In the East China Sea, amid the continuation of intrusions by China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels into Japan's territorial sea around the Senkaku Islands, the number of hours for which such vessels were inside Japan's territorial sea and the number of days for which they sailed inside Japan's contiguous zone reached the record high. CCG vessels also repeatedly approached Japanese fishing vessels. Moreover, activities by Chinese military vessels and aircraft expanded and intensified. In addition, China has been continuing unilateral development of resources in the maritime areas pending delimitation of the Exclusive Economic Zone and the continental shelves. Furthermore, in recent years China has been carrying out numerous surveys without Japan's consent or in a manner that deviates from Japan's consent in the waters around Japan, including the East China Sea.

The issue over the South China Sea is a legitimate concern of the international community that is directly linked to the peace and stability of the region. China has announced the establishment of new administrative districts in the South China Sea called the “Nansha District” and the “Xisha District” and has pursued further militarization of reclaimed features, all of which are unilateral attempts to change the status quo that run counter to the rule of law and openness, and attempts to make the results of these actions a fait accompli. Additionally, China has continued actions that increase tensions in the region, including conducting repeated military exercises and missile launches.