In order for Japan to ensure its national interests in the political, diplomatic, security, and economic domains, to maintain and develop an international order based on universal values and principles such as freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, as well as to prevent crises, and proactively create a peaceful and stable international environment, Japan needs to strategically advance its foreign policy while grasping changes and trends in international affairs with clear eyes and adapting to them. This chapter outlines a broad overview of the international situation surrounding Japan and the outlook for Japan's diplomacy.

1 Overview of the International Situation

The international community is at a turning point in history.

For some time since the end of the Cold War, a free, open, and stable international order has extended throughout the world. Advanced democracies, including the overwhelmingly powerful United States and Japan, took the lead in maintaining and developing an international order based on universal values and principles such as freedom, democracy, respect for fundamental human rights, and the rule of law. A trend toward international cooperation to enhance fairness, transparency, and predictability of international relations grew stronger. Furthermore, on the premise of such an international order, economic globalization and interdependence have advanced, bringing a certain degree of stability and economic growth to the international community, including developing countries.

However, although globalization has reduced disparities among nations around the world as a whole, some countries, such as Least Developed Countries (LDC), have not been able to fully enjoy its benefits. On the other hand, in developed countries, domestic disparities have rather widened, which has led to political and social tensions and divisions. Furthermore, the rise of China and other emerging and developing countries that developed under the international order described above has brought about a shift in the power balance in the international community in recent years, and geopolitical competition among nations has intensified. Some states are strengthening their military power in a rapid and non-transparent manner, and are becoming more assertive and challenging, based on their own historical views and values, to the existing international order. Moreover, in recent years, the scope of security has expanded to challenges such as ensuring the resilience of the semiconductor and rare earths supply chain, the promotion and protection of critical and emerging technologies, cyber security, and countering disinformation.

As the existing free and open international order based on the rule of law is shaken, there is a growing tendency among nations to enhance their overall national power and compete for international influence to achieve their own national interests. In response to this situation, it is difficult to say that the United Nations (UN) and other international organizations have been functioning adequately. The interests of each country have become increasingly complex, making it extremely difficult to find a unified position, and the spirit of international cooperation is diminishing. As a result, polarizing forces are gaining power in the international community, and it is feared that the level of tension and confrontation will increase in the future.

At the same time, global issues such as climate change, the environment, infectious diseases, nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, and terrorism cannot be solved by any one major power alone, and cooperation by the international community is needed more than ever. The world economy is becoming increasingly globalized and interdependent, and complete decoupling is no longer possible. Thus, international relations have become a complex situation where confrontation, competition, and cooperation are intricately intertwined.

Against this backdrop, the following part explains the major international issues that have become visible and apparent in 2022.

(1) Russia's Aggression: A Blatant Challenge to the International Order

In February 2022, Russia launched its aggression against Ukraine. The principles of the international community, such as respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the general prohibition of the use of force, were blatantly trampled upon by a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Russia's aggression is an outrageous act that shakes the very foundation of the existing international order and symbolizes the end of the post-Cold War era. The international community must not allow such an outrageous act. It is extremely important that the international community unite in response to this aggression by Russia in order to deter any further attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by force.

Furthermore, Russia's repeated threats of use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine are inadmissible. The threat of use of nuclear weapons, as Russia is doing, let alone the use of nuclear weapons, in any form, must not be tolerated. Humanity must reflect on the weight of its 77-year history of non-use of nuclear weapons. In this regard, it is deeply regrettable that the Tenth Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in August failed to reach consensus on the final document due to the opposition of one country, Russia.

It has also been noted that Russia is exploiting emerging technologies including cyberattacks and spreading of disinformation to advance its military operations, and has repeatedly violated international law, including attacks on civilians and civilian facilities. Massacres of civilians near Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, such as in Bucha, and attacks against nuclear power plants have also been pointed out. Russia's aggression has also caused problems such as the global food and energy crisis, and has brought multifaceted turmoil to many countries, including developing countries.

On February 23, 2023, a resolution calling for peace in Ukraine was adopted by a majority of 141 votes in favor at the Emergency Special Session of the UN General Assembly. The resolution clearly states that peace does not mean simply halting hostilities; it must be comprehensive, just and lasting, based on the principles of the UN Charter, such as sovereignty and territorial integrity.

(2) Emerging and Developing Countries with Growing Presence

The presence of emerging and developing countries, also known as the Global South, has been increasing through their responses to the challenges facing the international community in recent years, including Russia's aggression against Ukraine. The geopolitical position of these countries, their economic situation, and their relations with Russia and China vary from country to country. While some emerging countries, such as India, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey are members of the G20, there are vulnerable countries that are suffering from various challenges including development, poverty, regional conflicts, terrorism, and natural disasters, such as those in Africa and the Middle East. However, many of these countries share a commonality in that they take a middle ground between the Western countries and Russia by abstaining from voting on resolutions at the UN General Assembly or showing a reluctance to impose sanctions against Russia. These countries have voiced doubts that developed countries are enthusiastic about the European agenda but do not pay enough attention to the challenges they face, or that the developed countries' responses are double standards in the application of universal values. These current conditions indicate that an era is dawning in which it is no longer possible for the international community to converge under a single set of values and principles. On the other hand, in finding solutions to the major challenges facing the international community, it is extremely important to work with as many emerging and developing countries as possible under multilateralism through an inclusive approach that overcomes differences in values and interests. From this perspective, as a developed country, Japan needs to strengthen its involvement in these countries and take a diplomatic stance to seek cooperation that they truly need.

(3) Rebuilding Global Governance¹

As the international community is reaching a historic turning point, the ideal system of global governance should now be well discussed from the perspective of upholding peace, security, and prosperity of the international community as well as maintaining a free and open international order based on the rule of law.

Against this backdrop, the UN is facing a time of trial. The UN Security Council, which has primary responsibility for international peace and security, has not been functioning effectively in response to the aggression against Ukraine by Russia, a permanent member of the Council. Furthermore, North Korea's nuclear development and repeated ballistic missile launches are clear violations of relevant UN Security Council resolutions, but due to the resistance of China and Russia, including their exercise of veto, neither a new UN Security Council resolution nor even a Presidential Statement has been issued. On the other hand, the UN General Assembly has played a role in demonstrating the collective will of the international community against Russia's aggression by holding the emergency special session based on the “Uniting for Peace” resolution. Six General Assembly resolutions, including the ones condemning Russia, were adopted within one year after the aggression began. In addition, the adoption of a General Assembly resolution that, in effect, requires the vetoing country to be accountable to the UN General Assembly when the UN Security Council fails to exercise its expected responsibilities due to the veto of the permanent member, is part of the efforts by the Member States to strengthen the functions of the UN.

In contrast to the UN, in response to Russia's aggression against Ukraine, unity and coordination among like-minded countries, including the G7, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the European Union (EU) are remarkable. In particular, the G7 shared a sense of urgency since immediately after the crisis broke out, and has continuously provided broad support for Ukraine and imposed strict sanctions against Russia, holding 11 foreign ministers' meetings and six leaders' meetings, both online and in person, in the year 2022 alone. The importance of the G7, whose presence in the international community was said to be declining in recent years, is now reaffirmed in the face of Russia's aggression, which is a blatant challenge to the rule of law.

On the other hand, the G20, a framework that includes Russia and emerging countries, received attention on how to deal with Russia's aggression. At the G20 Bali Summit, hosted by Indonesia in November, the Leaders' Declaration was adopted, agreeing on the language, “Most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine” included after rigorous coordination, thanks to the leadership of President Joko Widodo. The phrase “strongly condemned the war in Ukraine” was carried over to the subsequent APEC Leaders' Declaration hosted by Thailand.

A move to rebuild global governance on global issues has been observed. In the field of global health, based on the lessons learned from the response to COVID-19 pandemic, efforts are underway to strengthen international norms to respond to pandemic under the World Health Organization (WHO), to coordinate a future medical countermeasures platform on the existing capacity of the ACT Accelerator², and to establish the Pandemic Fund under the World Bank. These efforts to strengthen global health architecture for prevention, preparedness, and response to future health emergencies, are in full swing.

The 27th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27) adopted the “Sharm el-Sheikh Implementation Plan,” which called for Parties to strengthen actions in each area to address climate change. It was also decided to establish new funding arrangements, including a fund, for assisting developing countries that are particularly vulnerable in responding to loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change.

• 1 Global Governance: The totality of institutions, policies, norms, procedures, and initiatives that provide predictability, stability, and order in dealing with inter-state issues in an international community where there is no higher level of government unlike domestic system.
• 2 ACT Accelerator (Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator): an internationally coordinated platform for research, development, manufacturing, and equitable access to vaccines, diagnostics, and therapeutics for COVID-19

(4) Increasingly Severe Security Environment Around Japan

Challenges by force to the existing international order based on the rule of law are no longer a challenge unique to Europe, but one that can arise anywhere in the world, including East Asia. In reality, the security environment surrounding Japan is the most severe since the end of World War II, with North Korea's ongoing rapid progress in its nuclear and missile development and China's ongoing unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion in the East China Sea and the South China Sea.

At the 20^th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in October, General Secretary Xi Jinping was confirmed for his third term as General Secretary. In the Central Committee Report of this Party Congress, General Secretary Xi Jinping reiterated that China is aiming to become a strong, modernized socialist country by the mid-century, stating that “Momentous changes of a like not seen in a century are accelerating across the world. A new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation is well under way, and a significant shift is taking place in the internal balance of power, presenting China with new strategic opportunities in pursuing development.” China also continues to promote the mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, and continues the rapid buildup of military power without adequate transparency. China has reinforced its unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion in the maritime and airspace areas of the East China Sea and the South China Sea, including intrusions into the territorial sea and airspace surrounding Japan's Senkaku Islands, and has expanded and intensified its military activities in the Sea of Japan, the Pacific Ocean, and elsewhere. In addition, while maintaining its policy of peaceful unification of Taiwan, China has not denied the possibility of the use of force, and it has been intensifying its military activities in the sea and airspace surrounding Taiwan, including the launch of ballistic missiles into the waters near Japan in August. Concerns about the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait are growing rapidly not only in the Indo-Pacific region, including Japan, but in the international community as a whole. China's current external stance and military activities are a matter of serious concern to Japan and the international community. It is unprecedented and represents the greatest strategic challenge to ensuring the peace and security of Japan and the peace and stability of the international community, as well as to strengthening the international order based on the rule of law, to which Japan should respond with its comprehensive national power and in cooperation with its allies, like-minded countries and others. At the same time, it is important to seek responsible actions from China to build a “constructive and stable relationship” by the efforts of both sides through frank communication at a high level, including with leaders and foreign ministers.

North Korea has repeatedly launched ballistic missiles with an unprecedented frequency and in unprecedented manners, in violation of relevant UN Security Council resolutions, including the ballistic missile launched in October that flew over Japan and the Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM)-class ballistic missile launched in November that landed within Japan's exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Furthermore, North Korea has not shown any attitude toward responding to calls for dialogue, but rather has strengthened its hostile posture toward the U.S. and other countries, and has made clear its policy of mass-production of tactical nuclear weapons and an exponential increase of nuclear arsenal. This series of North Korea's activities is a grave and imminent threat to Japan's national security and a clear and serious challenge to the international community.

In addition, Russia is accelerating its external and military activities in the Far East and East Asia, which, especially together with its strategic coordination with China, is of strong security concern.

(5) New Issues Such as Economic Security

In addition to traditional security, addressing economic security as a new challenge is now recognized as an urgent issue for each country. With the deepening of economic interdependence and the development of science and technology, the scope of security has expanded to the fields of economy and emerging technologies. Furthermore, the boundary between military and non-military fields has become blurred. Technological innovations such as the fifth-generation mobile communications systems (5G), artificial intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), quantum technology and others are not only bringing about substantive changes in society and daily life, but are also directly linked to national competitiveness, as well as to moves to strengthen military power as dual-use technologies for both military and civilian applications. In addition, cyberattacks to disable or destroy critical infrastructures, interference in foreign elections, ransom demands, and theft of sensitive information are constantly being carried out, even in the form of state-sponsored cyberattacks.

COVID-19 and the crisis in Ukraine have revealed the vulnerabilities of the global supply chain. The fact that some countries do not hesitate to use economic dependencies and their own large markets as tools for coercion shows that these risks are not temporary. The challenge of theft of intellectual property and sensitive technologies is also evident.

Addressing these economic security concerns and unfair trade practices are new challenges for the multilateral trading system that has supported the expansion of a free and fair international economic order since the end of the Cold War.

Furthermore, new challenges in the domain of economic cooperation, such as development finance that ignores other countries' debt sustainability, are also emerging.

Rapidly advancing informatization, which has benefited from digital technology, has enabled a society in which anyone can freely collect and disseminate information. On the other hand, it has also given rise to problems such as cyberattacks and the spreading of disinformation. In addition, not only intentional attacks, but also the formation of confirmation bias³ through social media has made it more difficult to form public opinion based on correct information and healthy debate.

The effects of the social divisions thus created are particularly severe in democracies, affecting the process of foreign and general policy consensus formation. There are also concerns that this situation may be exploited to assert the superiority of authoritarian regimes over democracy.

• 3 Confirmation bias: Refers to the tendency, when testing a hypothesis, to have a bias for selecting information that supports the hypothesis from among many pieces of information, and to devalue or ignore information that does not support the hypothesis. (Source: imidas)