Climate Change

Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC): Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Target in FY2030

September 8, 2016

1 Background

Conference of Parties, in its decision 1/CP.19 in 2013, invited all Parties to initiate or intensify domestic preparations for their intended nationally determined contributions (INDC) well in advance of COP21 in 2015. After conclusion of the Paris Agreement, INDCs will be considered as nationally determined contributions (NDC).

On July 2015, Global Warming Prevention Headquarters decided Japan’s INDC.

2 Japan’s INDC

Japan’s INDC towards post-2020 GHG emission reductions is at the level of a reduction of 26.0 % by fiscal year (FY) 2030 compared to FY 2013 (25.4 % reduction compared to FY 2005) (approximately 1.042 billion t-CO2eq. as 2030 emissions), ensuring consistency with its energy mix, set as a feasible reduction target by bottom-up calculation with concrete policies, measures and individual technologies taking into adequate consideration, inter alia, technological and cost constraints, and set based on the amount of domestic emission reductions and removals assumed to be obtained.

3 Fairness, Ambition, Contributions to the Achievement of Article 2 Targets and Clarity, Transparency and Understanding of INDC

  • Japan’s INDC is an ambitious target that compares well internationally. It will improve emissions per GDP by more than 40% and emissions per capita by approx. 20%, which will maintain one of the best levels in the world.
    • At present, Japan’s energy consumption per GDP is approximately 30% less than the average of other G7 countries, and is one of the best levels in the world. Japan is aiming at a 35% increase in energy efficiency by 2030.
    • With the above energy mix, the ratio of renewable energy within the total electric power generated will be around 22-24%, and the ratio of nuclear power will be around 22-20% (Solar is expected to increase 7X and wind/ geothermal energy 4X from the current level) in 2030.
  • Japan’s INDC is consistent with the emission pathways up to 2050 to achieve the 2 degrees Celsius goal as presented in the Fifth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and with the goal the country upholds, namely, "the goal of achieving at least 50% reduction of global GHG emissions by 2050, and as a part of this, the goal of developed countries reducing GHG emissions in aggregate by 805 or more by 2050".
  • The Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM) is not included as a basis of the bottom-up calculation of Japan’s emission reduction target, but the amount of emission reductions and removals acquired by Japan under the JCM will be appropriately counted as Japan’s reductions.

4 Proposed emission reduction targets of each Country

  Proposed emission reduction target from 2020 [Reference] 2020 Target and Action based on Cancun Agreements
Details Submission period (2015) Reduction Targets and Action
Japan 2030: -26% (compared to 2013)

(2030: -25.4% (compared to 2005))
July 17 -3.8% (compared to 2005)
United States 2025: -26% to -28% (compared to 2005)

Maximum effort to reach -28%
March 31 Around -17% (compared to 2005)
EU 2030: -40% (compared to 1990) March 6 -20% (compared to 1990)
Russia 2030: -25% to -30% (compared to 1990) March 31 -15 to -25% (compared to 1990)
Canada 2030: -30% (compared to 2005) May 15 -17% (compared to 2005)
Australia 2030: -26% to -28% (compared to 2005) August 11 -5% (compared to 2000)
Switzerland 2030: -50% (compared to 1990) February 28 -20% (compared to 1990)
Norway 2030: -40% (compared to 1990) March 27 -30 (compared to 1990)
China CO2 emissions to peak in around 2030. Efforts will be made to peak earlier.
CO2 emissions per GDP unit in 2030: -60 to -65% (compared to 2005)
June 30 CO2 emissions per GDP unit: -40 to -45% (compared to 2005)
India Emissions per GDP unit in 2030: -33 to -35% (compared to 2005) October 1 Emissions per GDP unit: -20 to -25% (compared to 2005)
Mexico -22% in 2030 (compared to BAU), conditionally -36% in 2030 (compared to BAU) March 30 Conditionally -30% (compared to BAU)
South Africa -398 to -614 Mt by 2025 and 2030 (compared to BAU) September 25 -34% (compared to BAU)
Brazil -37% in 2025 (compared to 2005). -43% in 2030 (compared to 2005) September 28 -36.1 to -38.9% (compared to BAU)