(Tentative Unofficial Translation)

II. International Situation

The following trends in the international situation were considered in the drafting of these new guidelines.

1. With the end of the Cold War, which led to the demise of the structure of military confrontation between East and West, backed by overwhelming military capabilities, the possibility of a global armed conflict has become remote in today's international community. At the same time, various unresolved territorial issues remain, and confrontations rooted in religious and ethnic differences have emerged more prominently. Complicated and diverse regional conflicts have been taking place. Furthermore, new kinds of dangers, such as the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction including nuclear arms, and of missiles, are on the increase. Thus,unpredictability and uncertainty persist in the international community.
2. On the other hand, as interdependence among nations intensifies, efforts are underway in various areas, such as political and economic spheres, to promote international cooperation and to further stabilize international relations. An emphasis has been placed on preventing destabilizing factors from escalating into serious international problems. In the area of security, continued progress is being made in arms control and disarmament, based on agreements between the United States and Russia and within Europe. Efforts are also being made toward enhancing regional security frameworks, expanding multilateral and bilateral dialogues and promoting the role of the United Nations.

   Major countries are making active efforts to reorganize and stream-line their military capabilities, which used to be aimed at countering large-scale aggression, and taking account of their respective strategic environments, to secure adequate capability to properly respond to regional conflicts and other various situations. These efforts constitute important factors toward the establishment of a more stable security environment, in combination with the initiatives based on international cooperation, including those launched by the United Nations. In this context, the United States, with its great power, continues to play a significant role for world peace and stability.

3. In the surrounding regions of Japan, the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union have brought about a reduction of the military force level and changes in the military posture in Far East Russia. At the same time, there still remain large-scale military capabilities including nuclear arsenals and many countries in the region are expanding or modernizing their military capabilities mainly against the background of their economic development. There remain uncertainty and unpredictability, such as continued tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and a stable security environment has not been fully established. Under these circumstances, the possibility of a situation in this region, which could seriously affect the security of Japan, cannot be excluded. At the same time,various activities are being pursued to deepen cooperative relations among nations and to achieve regional stability, such as promotion of bilateral dialogues and search for a regional security framework.

   The close cooperative relationship between Japan and the United States, based on the Japan-U.S. security arrangements, will help to create a stable security environment, provide the foundation for securing the engagement of the United States and the U.S. military presence which are necessary for peace and stability in this region,and thus will continue to play a key role for the security of Japan,as well as the stability of the international community.