In order for Japan to ensure its national interests in the diplomatic, security, and economic domains, to prevent crises, and to secure the safety and prosperity of the lives of its citizens, including Japanese nationals living abroad, it is necessary to maintain and develop an international order based on universal values and principles such as freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, as well as to proactively create a peaceful and stable international environment. To this end, Japan needs to advance its foreign policy strategically and flexibly, while grasping trends in international affairs with a clear view and adapting to changes. This chapter outlines a broad overview of the international situation surrounding Japan and the outlook for Japan's diplomacy.

1 Overview of the International Situation

Looking at the international situation since the end of the Cold War, the international community is currently at a major turning point in history once again. For some time since the end of the Cold War, a stable international order has expanded throughout the world. Advanced democracies, including the overwhelmingly powerful United States (U.S.) and Japan, took the lead in maintaining and developing an international order based on values and principles such as freedom, democracy, respect for fundamental human rights, and the rule of law. A trend toward international cooperation to enhance fairness, transparency, and predictability of international relations grew stronger. Furthermore, on the premise of such an international order, economic globalization and interdependence have advanced, bringing a certain degree of stability and economic growth to the international community, including developing countries.

Although globalization has reduced the overall disparities among nations, some countries, such as Least Developed Countries (LDC), have not been able to fully enjoy its benefits. On the other hand, in some developed countries, domestic disparities have rather widened, which has led to political and social tensions and divisions, destabilizing democratic political systems. Furthermore, the rise of emerging and developing countries that developed under the international order described above has led to the diversification of the international community in recent years. Some of these countries, also known as the Global South, are aware of this shift and are seeking greater influence and a stronger voice commensurate with their national power.

In addition, some states are strengthening their military power in a rapid and non-transparent manner, and are becoming more assertive and challenging the existing international order based on their own historical views. There also exists a tendency to “weaponize” economic dependencies to achieve their own political goals. On the other hand, the scope of security has expanded to fields such as ensuring resilience of supply chains for semiconductors and critical minerals, promotion and protection of critical and emerging technologies, cybersecurity, and countering disinformation. Against the backdrop of these changes in the power balance and security environment, competition among nations has become more intense and complex.

Turning to the entire international community, global issues such as climate change, the environment, infectious diseases, nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, and terrorism and transnational organized crime remain extremely important. In recent years, informatization and digitization have made these issues more visible and widely recognized throughout the world, but these issues cannot be solved by any one major power alone, and cooperation within the international community is needed more than ever. In addition, economic globalization and interdependence, which have advanced in the post-Cold War world, persistently remain in the era of competition among nations, in which complete decoupling is not possible. These developments show the complexity of the international relations where confrontation, competition, and cooperation are intricately intertwined.

Against this backdrop, Russia launched its aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, shaking the very foundation of the international order that had supported peace, stability, and prosperity in the post-Cold War era. Furthermore, in October 2023, the situation surrounding Israel and Palestine has worsened after the terror attacks against Israel by Hamas and others, making the axis of confrontation in the international community more complex. It is difficult to say that the United Nations (UN) is adequately fulfilling the expected functions in face of the crises to which the international community urgently needs to respond, including serious humanitarian crises due to the continuation of conflicts. It is said that some countries, including those in the Global South, have accumulated distrust toward the existing global governance¹ system.

With international relations complexly intertwined today, conflicts in the two regions of Europe and the Middle East are not only problems in themselves, but have also revealed new threats such as cyberattacks and spread of disinformation, thus hampering international cooperation in solving global issues and affecting the stability and prosperity of all regions of the world, including Japan. Under these circumstances, the international situation will enter a critical phase in 2024, in which important elections are scheduled to be held in various parts of the world, from the perspective that each country's domestic politics and international relations mutually influence one another.

Against this backdrop, the following part explains the major international issues facing the international community.

• 1 Global Governance: The totality of institutions, policies, norms, procedures, and initiatives that provide predictability, stability, and order in dealing with interstate issues in the international community where there is no higher level of government unlike domestic system.

(1) Challenge to the Free and Open International Order based on the Rule of Law

With conflicts raging in two of the three regions that have been important to global stability in history ─ Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia ─, the stability of the Indo-Pacific region, including East Asia, is more important than ever.

Russia has been continuing its aggression against Ukraine since February 2022. The act of a permanent member of the UN Security Council blatantly violating the principles of the UN Charter, such as sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the general prohibition of the use of force, is an outrageous act that shakes the very foundation of the existing international order, which the international community has built up over a long period of hard work and much sacrifice, and the international community must not allow such an act. Furthermore, Russia has repeatedly threatened Ukraine with its use of nuclear weapons, but the international community must firmly reject Russia's threat of use of nuclear weapons, let alone any use of nuclear weapons.

In 2023, at the G7 Hiroshima Summit hosted by Japan, the leaders of the G7, with the participation of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, affirmed to continue strong support for Ukraine and severe sanctions against Russia, emphasized that peace cannot be achieved without the withdrawal of Russian troops, and confirmed that they would make every effort to bring peace to Ukraine. The G7 leaders also communicated to the international community their determination to uphold and reinforce the free and open international order based on the rule of law, to protect peace and prosperity, and to realize a world without nuclear weapons. Currently, some indicate fatigue in support of Ukraine and others point to a relative decline in interest in the situation in Ukraine, coupled with the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East. However, the achievement of a just and lasting peace in Ukraine, premised on the complete and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops, is essential to upholding the rule of law in the international community.

In today's international community, where international relations are intricately intertwined, Russia's aggression against Ukraine and unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force in East Asia are not geographically separate and distinct issues. The security of Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific are inseparable, and cooperation with a wide range of like-minded countries, including European countries, the European Union (EU), and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), is important to maintain and strengthen a free and open international order based on the rule of law.

In fact, in East Asia, including the area surrounding Japan, North Korea has been advancing its nuclear and missile development, including the launches of the Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM)-class ballistic missiles. In addition, China has been continuing and intensifying its unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, including the waters surrounding the Senkaku Islands, and has continued and intensified a series of military activities around Japan. The security environment surrounding Japan is as severe and complex as it has ever been since the end of World War II. Peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait are also important. At the G7 Hiroshima Summit, the G7 concurred on the importance to convey to China the common concerns of the G7 and call for action as a responsible member of the international community, while working with China on global issues such as climate change, and areas of common interest, and building constructive and stable relations through dialogue.

Against this backdrop, the leaders of Japan and China reaffirmed to comprehensively promote a “Mutually Beneficial Relationship Based on Common Strategic Interests” at their summit meeting in November, and confirmed a broad direction of establishing “constructive and stable Japan-China relations.” For ensuring the stability of the Indo-Pacific, cooperation with like-minded countries that share fundamental values, such as Australia, India, the Republic of Korea (ROK), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the Pacific Island countries, is also becoming increasingly important.

(2) Challenges Posed to Global Governance by the Shift in the Power Balance

The international community is witnessing a historic shift in the power balance, as many developing countries have achieved economic development under the stable international order that developed throughout the post-Cold War era. In recent years, the share of developing and emerging economies in the size of the global economy has increased rapidly, with symbolic changes such as India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) overtaking that of the United Kingdom (UK) to become the world's fifth largest in 2023.

Developing and emerging countries, also known as the Global South, are becoming increasingly aware of these changes and tend to have a stronger presence not only in the economic but also in the diplomatic and security spheres. In 2023, the world witnessed moves among the Global South to increase their unity: India, as the G20 Presidency, hosted the “Voice of Global South Summit,” and the expansion of BRICS² membership was announced at the BRICS Summit under the chairmanship of South Africa.

The geopolitical position and economic situation of these countries vary from country to country. While some emerging countries are members of the G20, there are vulnerable countries that are suffering from various challenges, including poverty, conflicts, terrorism and transnational organized crime, natural disaster, and climate change. Each country has diverse interests and agendas. In recent years, this has been revealed particularly over their response to Russia's aggression against Ukraine, including their voting attitudes on UN General Assembly resolutions and their reluctance toward sanctions against Russia. It is not appropriate to treat the “Global South” as a single entity, and it is important to engage with each country in a fine-tuned manner, taking into account different needs of each country.

The UN is facing a time of trial as values in the international community become diverse and geopolitical competition between states intensifies. The UN Security Council, which has primary responsibility for peace and security of the international community, has not necessarily been functioning effectively in response to the situation in Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian situation due to the exercise of veto by permanent members, and there are growing calls to strengthen UN functions, including UN Security Council reform. Although the UN General Assembly has made various efforts, some say that the confrontation has become even more complex after the deterioration of the Israeli-Palestinian situation.

While the multilateral frameworks centered on the UN face difficulties, cooperation among allies and like-minded countries such as the G7, Japan-Australia-India-U.S., Japan-U.S.-ROK, is becoming increasingly important. In particular, the G7 has continuously provided broad support for Ukraine and imposed severe sanctions against Russia since the launch of Russia's aggression against Ukraine. The G7 Hiroshima Summit also set out strengthening engagement with international partners beyond the G7, including the Global South, and Japan has worked so that its outcomes to be fed into the G20, in which many Global South countries also participate. As it is no longer possible for the international community to converge under a single set of values and principles, Japan needs to take an inclusive approach that overcomes conflict in values and interests and extend a fine-tuned diplomacy to seek cooperation that is truly needed by each country.

• 2 BRICS: Term used to refer to Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. In this context, at the BRICS Summit in August, BRICS announced the invitation of Argentina, Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (UAE) to become new members (Argentina withdrew its membership application due to a subsequent change of administration.).

(3) Impacts of Economic Globalization and Continuing Interdependence

Despite the above-mentioned situation, the global economic network that developed during the post-Cold War era continues to support growth as the common foundation of the international community, and the global interdependence is further deepening against the background of economic development of emerging countries, technological innovation and increased human exchange.

In particular, food and energy supply shortages have hit the world, particularly the most vulnerable countries, and the vulnerabilities of the global supply chains have been revealed due to COVID-19 and Russia's aggression against Ukraine. In addition, some countries attempt to expand their own interests and power by leveraging economic dependencies and their own large markets as tools for coercion. This shows that in an era when complete decoupling is no longer possible, economic globalization and interdependence can bring not only positive aspects of growth and prosperity, but also security threats. Challenges such as theft of intellectual property and sensitive technologies, and development finance that ignores other countries' debt sustainability have also been identified, and the scope of security has expanded to include the fields of economy, and critical and emerging technologies.

In light of such demands of today, at the G7 Hiroshima Summit, Japan set up a specific session on economic security for the first time on the agenda of the G7 Summit. During the Summit, the G7 leaders affirmed that the G7 will be united in responding to issues such as enhancing resilience of supply chains and critical infrastructure, strengthening responses to non-market policy and practices and economic coercion, as well as appropriately managing critical and emerging technologies.

In order to counter economic coercion and unfair trade practices and to expand the free and fair international economic order, it is also becoming increasingly important to maintain and strengthen the multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organization (WTO) at its core, and to create new rules adapted to the times. Integrating social and environmental sustainability into the economy is also a need of the times, and it is necessary to address the environment, human rights, and gender equality with the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in mind, while aiming for economic growth. In response to these global challenges, there have been calls for reform of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), including the World Bank, particularly from the countries of the Global South.

(4) New Challenges Posed by Complex Global Issues and Science and Technology

There are a number of global challenges that commonly threaten humanity, including climate change, environmental pollution, international health challenges, including infectious diseases, and poverty. In particular, as extreme weather events and natural disasters, such as heavy rains, floods, droughts, and wildfires, are becoming severe and more frequent in recent years, the impact of climate change is more and more seriously recognized. In addition, Russia's aggression against Ukraine and other factors have created and exacerbated further crises, such as food and energy shortages, a growing number of refugees, including internally displaced persons, thus creating further humanitarian crisis. In 2023, the international community marked the half-way point to the deadline of achieving SDGs. Nevertheless, international cooperation to achieve SDGs faces major challenges as the international community becomes increasingly divided and confrontational.

As the international community faces complex crises, there is a renewed focus on “human dignity” as the common starting point of humanity, which no one can doubt, that human life and dignity are of paramount importance, in order to lead the world toward cooperation rather than division and confrontation. Furthermore, women and girls in particular have been seriously affected in armed clashes, including in Ukraine and the Middle East. The perspectives of Women, Peace and Security (WPS), the foundational concept that the international community has a better chance to achieve sustained peace by having women actively participate as leaders in conflict resolution, reconstruction and peacebuilding while also protecting and helping women and girls, has renewed emphasis placed on it.

Turning to scientific and technological developments, technological innovations such as the fifth-generation mobile communications systems (5G), the Internet of Things (IoT), quantum technology and others have brought about substantive and irreversible changes in society and daily life, while the development of social media has ushered in an era where geographically distant places are instantly connected through information. Digitalization and information technology have improved the convenience of human life and facilitated cross-border communication, while global issues such as climate change have become more visible. In particular, while Artificial Intelligence (AI), which has developed rapidly in recent years, provides us with the opportunity to transform human society for the better, security risks such as cyberattacks and information manipulation, including the spread of disinformation, have been identified, particularly for advanced AI systems, including generative AI. Such technological advances are also directly linked to national competitiveness leading to moves to strengthen military power as dual-use military and civilian technology, and democracy itself is being put to the test as the formation of confirmation bias³ through social media has made it more difficult to form public opinion based on correct information and sound debate.

Against this background, at the G7 Hiroshima Summit, the G7 launched the “Hiroshima AI Process” to discuss the international governance of generative AI, and in December agreed on the “Hiroshima AI Process Comprehensive Policy Framework” that comprehensively sets out the rules to be followed by relevant actors for the first time globally. The AI Safety Summit was also held in the UK in November, where discussions were held on international cooperation on AI safety assessment.

That peace and development in the international community now cannot be achieved solely through the development of globalization and interdependence is evident in Russia's protracted aggression against Ukraine and the rapid deterioration of the Israeli-Palestinian situation. At the same time, cross-border international cooperation and the active use of science and technology, and innovation are essential to overcome the common global challenges of humanity. The international community needs to overcome differences in values and interests and promote international cooperation while appropriately addressing the risks posed by technology, with an emphasis on cooperation with a wide range of stakeholders, including the private sector, civil society, and youth.

• 3 Confirmation bias: Refers to the tendency, when testing a hypothesis, to have a bias for selecting information that supports the hypothesis from among many pieces of information, and to devalue or ignore information that does not support the hypothesis. (Source: imidas)