2 Russia and Belarus

(1) Situation in Russia

A Internal Situation in Russia

When Russia announced the start of its “special military operation” against Ukraine in February, there were various forms of anti-war movements in Russia. Small-scale protests were held in various parts of Russia, and some journalists, business people, academics, lawmakers, and others sent out anti-war messages and collected signatures. However, the administration severely suppressed the anti-war movement by further tightening restrictions on the freedom of speech and press, and some domestic independent news organizations, foreign NGOs, think tanks, and other organizations active in Russia were forced to suspend their activities and leave for foreign countries.

In September, after the Ukrainian military had recaptured some of the occupied territories, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a partial mobilization order, mobilizing some 300,000 people, according to the authorities. This triggered renewed anti-war activities in various parts of Russia, and at the same time, hundreds of thousands of people fled the country to escape the mobilization. There was also a growing outcry in support of the start of peace negotiations. Subsequently, these domestic movements died down.

In late September, the purported　“referenda” on “incorporation” into Russia were held in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson in Ukraine, and Russia illegally “annexed” these regions under the pretext of its results.

Given these circumstances, there are indications that Russia may transit to a wartime economy. In addition to implementing special economic measures to execute “military operations,” including a ban on the refusal of contracts for military supplies, the Government Coordination Council, chaired by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and responsible for responding quickly to the war situation and the needs of society, was established.

Since Russia's aggression against Ukraine, President Putin's approval rating has ranged between around 70 to 80%, up from the previous 60% range. Although there was a slight drop in support after the partial mobilization order was issued, this remains high.

B Russian Foreign Policy

In response to Russia's aggression against Ukraine, while the G7, the EU, and others have announced a series of various supports, including military aid to Ukraine, and sanctions against Russia, Russia is strengthening its confrontational stance with the West.

Since the reported buildup of Russian forces in areas along the Ukrainian border in the fall of 2021, the U.S. has continued dialogue with Russia to reduce tensions, but since the aggression against Ukraine, high-level talks between the U.S. and Russia have been extremely limited. Moreover, in February 2023, President Putin announced in his Address to the Federal Assembly the suspension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between the U.S. and Russia.

Political and economic relations with the EU are in the process of cooling, with European companies suspending or withdrawing their operations in Russia, reduced dependence on Russian energy, and mutually expelling staff of embassies and consulate generals. Although there are minimal contacts between Russia and Germany and between Russia and France, including at the summit level, these kinds of dialogues have failed to reach an agreement, and cooperation between Europe and Russia in practical fields has been greatly reduced.

Meanwhile, Russia is developing its own narrative on its aggression against Ukraine and is working to maintain and deepen relations with China, India, Turkey, the Central Asian and Caucasus countries (excluding Georgia), and other countries that have not imposed sanctions against Russia, but each country's position on the aggression against Ukraine is not the same.

Regarding China, the joint statement issued at the China-Russia summit in February stated that “Friendship between the two States has no limits, there are no forbidden areas of cooperation.” Since the start of the Russia's aggression against Ukraine, China has never condemned Russia and has opposed “unilateral” sanctions, as stated in a 12-point document entitled “China's Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis,” released by the Chinese Foreign Ministry on February 24, 2023, one year after the aggression. Close contact between China and Russia has been strengthened at the leader's and foreign minister's levels, and coordination in the military field, such as joint navigation and joint flights in the vicinity of Japan, has been strengthened even after the start of Russia's aggression against Ukraine. In addition, the volume of trade between the two countries is increasing, including greater imports of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia.

India, which has traditionally maintained friendly relations with Russia, has not directly condemned Russia. However, at the Russia-India summit meeting in September, Prime Minister Narendra Modi told President Putin that “today's era is not of war,” and publicly asserted the need for an early cessation of hostilities, dialogue, and diplomacy. However, India has been increasing its imports of crude oil and fertilizers from Russia, indicating the importance it attaches to maintaining economic relations with Russia.

Turkey, which maintains friendly relations with both Russia and Ukraine, supports the UN General Assembly resolutions related to Russia's aggression against Ukraine and condemns Russia's actions. At the same time, Turkey continues to engage in high-level talks with Russia and remains involved in the situation surrounding Russia's aggression against Ukraine, including brokering the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and working with the UN as a mediator on the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Russia attaches importance to Belarus and the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus, and continues to engage with these countries. The Central Asia-Russia Summit was held in Kazakhstan in 2022 for the first time. The Central Asian and Caucasus countries, with a few exceptions, have been absent from or abstained from UN General Assembly resolutions related to Russia's aggression against Ukraine, and many countries have avoided making their positions clear publicly.

President Putin shifted the Russian Army's deterrence forces to high combat alert immediately after the start of Russia's aggression, and nuclear threats have been made through various forms of transmissions from Russia. Thus, the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons continues to be a concern.

In the Indo-Pacific region, the Russian military's strategic command and staff exercise “Vostok 2022” in September marked the first time the Chinese military had three branches of the military (Army, Navy, and Air Force) participate in a Russian military exercise at once. Russia's Armed Forces have been strengthening their military coordination with China by conducting joint flights of their bombers and joint navigation by their naval vessels in the vicinity of Japan. The fact that the militaries of China and Russia continue to engage in joint activities with increasing frequency in the vicinity of Japan should be closely monitored with serious concern from the perspective of Japan's security.

C Russian Economy

GDP growth in Russia from January to March was +3.5%, but fell -4.1% from April to June and dropped another -3.7% from July to September due to the impact of sanctions against Russia and other factors. In addition, the 2022 budget fell from an expected budget surplus to a deficit, due in part to increased national defense spending, etc.. Significant increases in national defense and other spending are expected in the 2023 budget and beyond.

Following Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the Russian central bank took a wide range of monetary measures, including a significant increase in the policy interest rate, to mitigate the effects of sanctions against Russia. The ruble depreciated significantly immediately after the aggression, but over time the currency's value superficially recovered, and inflation peaked at the beginning of May and has trended downward since then.

On the other hand, the suspension and withdrawal of operations by foreign companies imposed restrictions on production as well as consumption behavior. Furthermore, the sanctions against Russia have reduced imports in the semiconductor and other high-tech sectors, disrupting supply chains and affecting production activities in the automotive and airline industries, among others. In response, Russia is attempting to address this by trying to produce substitutes domestically.

Russia has taken various “countermeasures” in the energy sector, such as forcing the transfer of underground resource development licenses from foreign companies to Russian corporations, and also restricting gas supplies to some countries.

(2) Japan-Russia Relations

A Overview of Japan-Russia Relations

At the Japan-Russia Summit telephone call held on February 17, just prior to Russia's aggression against Ukraine, Prime Minister Kishida told President Putin that Japan is monitoring the situation around Ukraine with grave concern, and that a solution acceptable to the countries concerned should be pursued through diplomatic negotiations, rather than an unilateral change of the status quo by force.

Russia's aggression against Ukraine, which began on February 24, has had a serious impact on Japan-Russia relations. In response to this aggression, Japan has been implementing severe sanctions against Russia (For details, see the Special Feature “Russia's Aggression Against Ukraine and Japan's Response” on page 16). In May, in connection with Japan's sanctions against Russian individuals, the Russian government announced an indefinite ban on a total of 63 Japanese individuals, including Prime Minister Kishida and Foreign Minister Hayashi, from entering Russia. In July, it similarly announced an indefinite ban on 384 members of the House of Representatives from entering Russia.

Furthermore, In April, Japan demanded the expulsion of eight diplomats and officials from the Embassy of the Russian Federation and the Trade Representation of the Russian Federation in Japan, as a result of Japan's comprehensive assessment, given the situation over Ukraine. In response, Russia demanded the expulsion of eight diplomats of the Embassy of Japan in Russia later that month. Japan protested to Russia, saying that it was absolutely unacceptable for Russia to take these measures, despite the fact that it was the Russian side that resorted to military means and caused the current situation, and that Russian side was fully responsible for bringing Japan-Russia relations to this state.

In the area of cultural and people-to-people exchanges, the opening ceremony of the “Japan-Russia Year of Regional Exchanges” was held in Sapporo in January. Subsequently, due to Russia's aggression against Ukraine, cultural and people-to-people exchanges between Japan and Russia at the governmental level have basically been put on hold for the time being.

In April, the sightseeing boat KAZU I was involved in a maritime accident off the Shiretoko Peninsula in Hokkaido. Regarding the three bodies found on Kunashiri Island and Sakhalin Island, Japan coordinated arrangements with Russia for the early handover of the bodies after confirming with the Russian side that the DNA information matched that of the missing persons in the accident. As a result, the bodies were handed over in September.

In September, a consular officer of the Consulate-General of Japan in Vladivostok was detained by the Russian authorities on the account of conducting illegal information collection activities and was declared as persona non grata (an undesirable person) and the officer's expulsion was demanded. There is no fact that the consular officer conducted an illegal activity, and the detention and intimidating interrogation conducted by Russia are clear and serious violations of the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations and the Japan-Soviet Consular Convention, and are absolutely unacceptable. The Government of Japan therefore lodged a strong protest and demanded a formal apology and prevention of recurrence from Russia. Furthermore, in October, as an appropriate measure in　response to the measures taken by Russia, Japan declared a consul at the Consulate-General of the Russian Federation in Sapporo as persona non grata, and demanded the expulsion of the consul from Japan.

In the fisheries sector, the Government of Russia unilaterally announced in June it would suspend the Framework Agreement concerning operations of Japanese fishing vessels in waters around the Four Northern Islands¹ on the grounds of the Cooperative Project with the Sakhalin Oblast government, but operations began in September as a result of subsequent adjustments. However, Russia has rejected negotiations for operations for 2023 based on this agreement. Since the start of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the Government of Japan has been holding discussions to maintain and secure Japan's fishing rights and interests, including those under other Japan-Russia fisheries agreements.

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• 1 Agreement on the Operation of Japanese Fishing Vessels in the Waters Surrounding the Northern Territories.

B The Northern Territories and Negotiations on a Peace Treaty

The greatest concern between Japan and Russia is the Northern Territories issue.　The Northern Territories are islands over which Japan has sovereignty. The islands are an inherent territory of Japan but currently illegally occupied by Russia. The issue is yet to be resolved even after 77 years have passed since the end of World War II, and the Government of Japan firmly worked on the negotiations under the policy of concluding a peace treaty through the resolution of the territorial issue².

However, in March, the Government of Russia, considering the measures taken by Japan in relation to Russia's aggression against Ukraine, announced measures such as discontinuing negotiations on a peace treaty, suspending free visits and the Four-island exchange program, and withdrawing from the dialogue on the joint economic activities on the Four Northern Islands. In September, the Government of Russia also announced a government decree suspending the validity of the agreement on free visits and the four-island exchange program.

The current situation is entirely the result of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, and Russia's attempt to shift the responsibility to the Japanese side is extremely unjust and absolutely unacceptable. The Government of Japan has lodged a strong protest against the Russian side and has strongly urged Russia to stop the aggression and withdraw its forces immediately.

Although Japan-Russia relations are in a difficult situation due to Russia's aggression against Ukraine, and now is not a moment in which Japan can talk about the prospects for the peace treaty negotiations, the Government of Japan will firmly maintain its policy of concluding a peace treaty through the resolution of the territorial issue. In addition, under the current circumstances, the situation does not allow the four-island exchange program and other programs³ to be conducted, and following on from 2020 and 2021, when Japan was unable to conduct these programs due to the circumstances surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic, it was also unable to conduct them in 2022. The resumption of the programs, including visits to graves in the Four Northern Islands, is one of the highest priorities for Japan-Russia relations in the future. The Government of Japan strongly hopes that the situation will become such that the programs can be resumed as soon as possible, and will continue to take appropriate measures.

Furthermore, Japan lodged protests against Russia over Russia's moves to build up its military forces in the Four Northern Islands, including military exercises, on the grounds that such moves are contradictory to Japan's position regarding the territorial issue.

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• 2 Refer to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website for the position of the Government of Japan on the Northern Territories issue:
  https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/europe/russia/territory/index.html
  
• 3 Refers to Visits to Graves in the Northern Territories, free visits, and exchange visits/receptions to the Four Northern Islands (including receiving patients and expert exchanges).

C Japan-Russia Economic Relations

From January to December 2022, trade between Japan and Russia increased by 6.2% year-on-year (total trade for the same period was approximately 2,563.7 billion Japanese yen (Source: Trade Statistics of Japan, Ministry of Finance)). This is believed to be due to the fact that while exports from Japan to Russia decreased due to Japan's sanctions against Russia, imports from Russia to Japan increased due to the effects of soaring global resource prices and the depreciation of the yen.

On February 15, prior to the Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the Co-chairs' meeting of the Japan-Russia Intergovernmental Committee on Trade and Economic Issues was held online, where Foreign Minister Hayashi informed Minister of Economic Development Maksim Gennadyevich Reshetnikov that Japan is closely monitoring the situation in Ukraine with serious concern. After conveying Japan's position that it seeks to reduce tensions and encourages the pursuit of a diplomatic solution under the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity, the co-chairs discussed the current status of Japan-Russia cooperation in economic relations and exchanges.

However, later that month, Russia started its aggression against Ukraine, making it difficult to continue bilateral relations as before, including in the economic sphere. For this reason, government projects related to economic cooperation with Russia, including the Eight-point Cooperation Plan for Innovative Reform in the Fields of Industry and Economy and a Favorable Living Environment of Russia proposed in 2016, are basically on hold for the time being.

In addition, in order to demonstrate that outrageous acts that shake the very foundation of the international order come with a high price, Japan, in cooperation with the G7 and the rest of the international community, is swiftly implementing severe sanctions against Russia, including sanctions against Russian individuals and organizations, sanctions in the financial sector such as freezing the assets of banks, and measures banning imports and exports. In the energy sector, in accordance with the G7 Leaders' Statement, Japan will phase out its dependence on Russian energy, including oil and coal, while maintaining its interests in the “Sakhalin 1” and “Sakhalin 2” oil and natural gas development projects in Russia, considering their importance for Japan's energy security.

(3) Situation in Belarus

Amidst increasing tensions in the region surrounding the Ukrainian border since the end of 2021 due to the buildup of Russian forces and other factors, Belarus started its engagement in a joint military exercise with Russia on February 10. In Russia's aggression against Ukraine that began on February 24, Belarus supported Russia by allowing the use of its own territory. In light of Belarus' obvious involvement in the aggression by Russia, Japan strongly condemned Belarus and imposed sanctions against the country, including sanctions against President Lukashenko and other individuals and entities, and export control measures. Since then, Belarus has allowed Russian troops to remain in its territory, and the two countries have conducted joint military exercises and other activities.

A referendum on constitutional amendments was held in February, and the majority voted in favor of the amendments, which included the deletion of the provision that Belarus should be a denuclearized region and a neutral state, the reinstatement of the provision prohibiting the president from being elected three times, and the tightening of qualifications for presidential candidates.

In July 2022, the Council of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) adopted a decision that Belarus had violated the Convention on International Civil Aviation (Chicago Convention) regarding the forced landing of a civilian aircraft flying over Belarus that occurred in May 2021. In October, the ICAO General Assembly approved the decision and adopted a resolution condemning the actions of the Government of Belarus.

The Nobel Peace Prize for 2022 was awarded to Ales Bialiatski, founder of the Belarusian human rights organization Viasna (Spring), along with human rights organizations from Russia and Ukraine, for representing his country's civil society and promoting over the years things such as the right to criticize power and protect the fundamental rights of citizens, and other reasons.

Sviatlana Heorhiyeuna Tsikhanouskaya and other Belarusian political activists continued to appeal to the international community for support, from their bases in the countries surrounding Belarus. In August, they gathered in Lithuania for a meeting where they announced the creation of a “United Transition Cabinet” with the goals of restoring constitutionality and order, ensuring the transition from a dictatorship to a democratic government, and creating conditions for holding fair and free elections.