Speech by Dr.Tatsuo Arima, the Representative, Government of Japan at the 37th Munich Security Council Meeting "Bilateral Relations with Russia from Japan's Perspective"

4 February 2001

1. Introduction

Mr. Chairman,
Distinguished Participants,
Ladies and Gentlemen,

I should like first to express my deep gratitude and respect to Dr. Teltscik for hosting, yet again, this valued conference with so many of the distinguished and influential leaders in the area of international security attending. It is thus a great honor for me to address this gathering once again after 1999 when I made a presentation on the security environment of the Asia-Pacific region.

Today, I should like to speak on Japan's perception and expectations of Russia's role in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in East Asia. My theme is this: Russia is a major power in this vast region. She has great potentialities to make contributions towards the region's peace and stability. At the moment, however, her contributions are not par with her potentialities. As we believe that for Russia to play a greater and a more constructive role in this region would be of benefit to the Russians themselves as well, Japan expects and encourages the further and responsible involvement of Russia in enhancing the region's stability and prosperity.

2. Challenges for the Asia-Pacific Region in the 21st Century

As the new century begins, Asia-Pacific faces opportunities and challenges of the dynamic developments taking place within. We welcome the rapprochement taking place on the Korean Peninsula. Unification is perhaps no longer an unrealistic goal of this century. The People's Republic of China, achieving annual economic growth of 7-10% and considerable population growth, will become even more of a major political and economic presence than it already is. How to ensure stability and prosperity amidst these vast changes will be an important but difficult agenda. Mutual cooperation between Japan, the U.S., China, and Russia, will play a key role in dealing with this challenge.

3. Current State of Russia's Participation in the Asia-Pacific Region

Historically, Russia has considered itself a Eurasian country. The fact that the Russian culture originates in Europe makes Russia a part of Europe, but at the same time, Russia's enormous territorial expanse into Asia makes it a member of the Asia-Pacific region as well. However, because of the paucity of the Russian participation in the region's affairs, she has not enjoyed the possible benefits of being an Asian nation.

We are aware, however, that since the late 1980s, the Russians have made clear their intention to participate more actively in the political and economic flows of Asia-Pacific, and has, in fact, undertaken efforts to strengthen her relations with the countries of the region. Russia now participates in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), which we all truly welcome. And yet, we feel we are not clear about the nature of the role Russia wants to play for the region's wellbeing or the concept upon which to play it.

In the economic sphere, Russia's presence in the region has remained limited. Russia's trade with APEC countries accounts for less than 20% of its total. The economic infrastructure in Siberia or Far East Russia is poorly developed, and her population here is small and even decreasing. In July 2000 President Vladimir Putin warned in his Blagoveshchensk address that "If practical efforts are not made towards development of the Far East Russia in the near future, the local Russian people will be speaking mainly Japanese, Chinese or Korean in a few decades." Be that as it may, the Russians have not taken concrete steps to integrate this area of Russia into the economic dynamism of the Asia-Pacific region, the most practical way to achieve the area's development.

4. The Importance of Russia's participation in the Asia-Pacific Region

Speaking of Russia's constructive engagement in the Asia-Pacific region to benefit both Russia and the region, how Russia behaves in such fields as arms control and disarmament, the uses and control of nuclear energy including the export of its technology, arms trade or response to missile defense greatly influences the region's security environment. Each one of these issues is our vital concern. In a similar vein Russia could constructively contribute towards the process of rapprochement on the Korean peninsula in consultation with the parties concerned. The west of the Urals, where 80% of the Russians live, has been incorporated into the European economy. The East of the Urals, wherein lies 75% of the Russian land-mass, however, possesses a great potential, but has fallen behind the times. In order to develop this area, further cooperation with neighbouring Asian countries would be essential. For the promotion of such cooperation, whether or not Russia can be accepted as a reliable partner in further promoting the region's security will be very important.

5. Expansion of Russian Diplomacy with the Asia-Pacific Region/Expectations for the Future

We are very much mindful that President Putin's administration is conducting active foreign policy towards the Asia-Pacific region. Japan has already twice welcomed President Putin. He has also visited Pyongyang and Beijing, and is said to be planning a visit to Seoul. Japan is paying close attention to Russia's "New Conception of Diplomacy," which emphasizes the importance of Asia as well as in the economic development of Siberia and the Far Eastern Russia.

We hope that Russia's policy to broaden diplomatic intercourse with us Asian countries will become a steadfast agenda of its diplomacy, and that Russia's involvement in the Asia-Pacific region will take an even more substantial and constructive form. During the 1990s, the main driving force of Russian diplomatic efforts seems to have been the reaction to such issues as NATO expansion and the shrinking of Eastern European markets and U.S. security initiatives including National Missile Defense (NMD). Yet today we are hoping that Russia will become a more proactive in her dealings with the countries of Asia-Pacific and become a more responsible partner with cost-sharing responsibilities for the benefits that she could accrue from the region.

I would now like to look specifically at what Japan expects from Russia. Politically and in terms of power and security, Russia has apprehension concerning U.S. influence, but the U.S. deterrence unquestionably plays an indispensable role in the peace and stability of the Asia-Pacific region. Japan hopes that Russia will forge a constructive relationship with the U.S. with regard to the region's security. We also want to ask Moscow to earnestly tackle issues of great concern to the region, such as the management of nuclear issues, arms trade or arms-control and disarmament. Japan, therefore, welcomes Russia's ratification of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty 2 (START2) and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). At the same time, we have serious concerns about Russia's weapons exports. We call upon Russia to take a responsible approach to this matter for the peace and stability of the region. Furthermore, Japan hopes that Russia will play a constructive role in future developments on the Korean Peninsula and will further promote confidence-building measures with Asia-Pacific countries through bilateral exchanges and multilateral dialogue and fora.

In the economic sphere, Japan hopes that the Russian government will promote their trade with the Asia-Pacific countries and improve its own economic environment conducive to foreign investments to Siberia and the Far East region. Specifically, Russia needs to formulate laws designed to enhance transparency and predictability of the market, further clarify investment regulations and standards, and strengthen the mutual understanding and the coordination between the central and local governments in their economic operations. We also hope that the central government will provide assistance to cooperative business activities so that successful cases could be presented to the outside world as proofs of the entrepreneurial opportunities Russia offers.

6. Japan-Russia Relations

Finally, I would like to speak on the Japan-Russia relations. During the course of the 1990s, Japan-Russia relations steadily developed along with growing Russia's interest in Asia. In the area of security, for example, during the latter half of the 1990s, exchanges were greatly increased and events such as mutual visits of defense and military officials, mutual visits of naval vessels and the implementation of joint exercises have become annual events. Today, both countries mutually regard each other as potential partners for cooperation in all fields across the political and economic spectrum.

In this relationship, one political issue remains unsolved, which is the conclusion of a peace treaty. In this context, both Japan and Russia are continuing negotiations based on an agreement that with the conclusion of the issue of the sovereignty of the four disputed islands, a peace treaty will be signed. Fifty-five years have passed since the end of the Second World War, but a national border has yet to be determined between Japan and Russia. Not only does this spell a loss to our two countries, it also constitutes a factor of instability in the Asia-Pacific region.

Of course, the Japanese side is not at all taking an approach whereby if a peace treaty remains unconcluded then other cooperation will not progress. The Government of Japan, based on the ideas I have put to you today, takes a policy to further deepen and strengthen Japan-Russia relations, actively encouraging constructive participation of Russia in the Asia-Pacific region. Japan was the original proposer of Russia's membership in APEC. Japan values and appreciates the close discussions and cooperation with Russia with respect to various regional and global issues.

Regrettably, however, we cannot deny that the painful history of the Second World War and the lack of a peace treaty to date do indeed affect the Japanese perception of Russia. According to an opinion poll taken last year, the percentages of the Japanese people who entertain some sense of affinity with other countries were as follows: with the United States, 74%; with the Republic of Korea, 51%; with the People's Republic of China, 49%; with the countries of Southeast Asia, 39%; with the countries of Europe 55%. For Russia, regrettably, the figure was 14%. Furthermore, economic exchanges in the private sector have not reached a satisfactory level. Looking at Japan's annual trade figures for 1999, our trade with the United States accounted for approximately US$200 billion, with China approximately US$67 billion, whereas our trade with Russia registered only US$4.3 billion.

Fortunately, however, the feelings of the Japanese people towards Russia have improved somewhat over the last several years, perhaps because of the highly visible promotion of high-level political dialogue and the activation of peace treaty negotiations.

If the leaders of Japan and Russia can resolve the difficulty lying between us and normalize our bilateral relationship on the basis of a peace treaty, the ties between the two peoples will become dramatically stronger. Such friendly Japan-Russia relations would greatly contribute to peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region and, indeed, of the entire world. With this belief, Japan intends to work for further strengthening of Japan-Russia relations.