2 Russia and Belarus

(1) Situation in Russia

A Internal Situation in Russia

In 2024, domestic politics continued to focus on the “special military operation” (hereinafter referred to as the “operation”). Since the beginning of the year, President Putin has demonstrated his support for participants in the “operation,” as well as bereaved families through means such as meeting with soldiers injured in the “operation,” celebrating the New Year with those who participated in the “operation” at the Presidential Residence, and spending a Russian Orthodox Christmas with the bereaved families. In his annual address to the Federal Assembly in February, Putin stressed that those who serve Russia are the “genuine elite.” A human resources development program was launched for participants in the “operation,” and some graduates of the program as well as individuals involved in the “operation” have been appointed to high-ranking federal and local government positions, and elected to assembly member. Russia has significantly increased the lump-sum payment it gives to contract soldiers at the time of contract signing, as well as one-time payment given to participants in the “operation” when they become injured or disabled.

In the presidential election held in March, in which opposition candidates were not allowed to participate, President Putin was elected with the highest voter turnout and percentage of votes in the Russian presidential elections. He invited participants in the “operation,” as well as their children, to his overall fifth presidential inauguration in May, and gave an inaugural address in which he called for national unity in support of the “operation.” With the start of the new presidential term, Russia's cabinet was reshuffled, with Mikhail Mishustin continuing in his role as Prime Minister and First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, an economic expert, appointed Minister of Defense. Russia has significantly increased its defense budget following its aggression against Ukraine.

In February, a regional department of the Federal Penitentiary Service announced that opposition figure Alexey Navalny had died in a penal colony. At his funeral, held in Moscow, a large number of citizens lined up to offer flowers amid strict security measures from Russian authorities. In March, a few days after the presidential election, an attack involving gunfire and explosions occurred at a concert hall in a shopping complex in Moscow Oblast, leaving more than 140 people dead. The Russian government initially claimed that Ukraine was responsible. In early August, there was a slight, temporary drop in President Putin's approval rating and a slight increase in social unrest following Ukraine's advance into Russia's Kursk Oblast. Meanwhile, as the Russian government has maintained and strengthened restrictions on freedom of speech and the press, the situation has not led directly to instability in the country.

In the meantime, in March, an event was held to celebrate the “10th anniversary of Crimea's reunification with Russia.”

B Russian Foreign Policy

In order to stop Russian aggression as soon as possible, Western countries continue to provide robust support to Ukraine in 2024 and take measures that include maintaining severe sanctions against Russia. High-level dialogues between Russia and the West remain limited, with a few exceptions.

Against this backdrop, Russia is seeking to strengthen its ties with China, India, North Korea, and others, as well as developing and emerging countries known as the Global South.

Russia has made particular progress in its relationship with China in various fields, including politics, economy, and military affairs. In May, President Putin paid a state visit to China on his first overseas trip since taking office for his overall fifth term as president, and said that Russia-China relations have reached the highest level ever. With regard to economy, the proportion of bilateral transactions settled in yuan and ruble has increased, and de-dollarization continues. On the military front, the two countries are ramping up the frequency of their military cooperation, with continued joint navigation (July, October) and joint flights with bombers (November) by the two militaries in the vicinity of Japan, as well as mutual participation in military exercises (September). The joint statement issued at the China-Russia summit in May also clearly stated that they would strengthen military cooperation, expand the scale of exercises, and conduct regular joint maritime and air patrols. From the perspective of Japan's security, these developments must continue to be closely monitored with serious concern.

In June, President Putin visited North Korea for the first time in about 24 years and signed the “Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership,” which entered into force in December and stipulates the provision of mutual assistance in the event of an attack on either participating “country.” Moves to advance Russia-North Korea military cooperation, such as Russia's procurement and use of weapons and munitions, including ballistic missiles, from North Korea, and the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia and their engagement in combat against Ukraine, are of grave concern, not only lead to a further deterioration of the situation in Ukraine, but also affect the security of the region surrounding Japan. The G7, including Japan, strongly condemns these moves.

In October, Russia hosted the 16th BRICS Summit as the chair. At the summit, President Putin stated that delegations from 35 countries, including four new member states, and six international organizations had participated in the Summit, and asserted that the role and authority of BRICS are growing. In November, the first Ministerial Conference of the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum was held, further invigorating frameworks involving the Global South.

Also in November, shortly after reports of Ukraine's use of Western-supplied weapons on Russian territory, the Presidential Administration of Russia issued a presidential decree approving the “Fundamentals of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence,” the first such document since 2020. In retaliation for the use of said weapons, Russia launched what was said to be a new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) into Ukraine in what it called a “test.” Russia has repeatedly made statements and moves that suggest the use of nuclear weapons in the context of its aggression against Ukraine. Japan, as the only country to have ever suffered atomic bombings during war, has taken every opportunity to convey to Russia its position that Japan firmly reject Russia's threat to use nuclear weapons, let alone any use of nuclear weapons, and has also appealed to the international community as well.

C Russian Economy

Russia continues its aggression against Ukraine, and has significantly increased defense spending to continue the war. The government's budget proposal calls for an increase of about 25% over the previous year in defense spending for 2025, accounting for just over 30% of the annual budget and about 6.3% of gross domestic product (GDP).

As a result of increased investment and consumption owing to, including, fiscal stimulus measures by the Russian government and improvement in income situation, the GDP growth rate was positive at 3.6% in 2023, with similar growth predicted for 2024 (as of the end of 2024). Although sanctions have caused a significant reduction in energy exports to Europe, Russia has increased exports to countries such as China, India, and Türkiye that are not participating in sanctions against Russia, and has taken measures to circumvent these sanctions. Russia is moving away from the U.S. dollar for trade settlement, and in response to export restrictions on advanced components from Western countries, it appears to be facilitating indirect import of these components through friendly countries.

Meanwhile, within Russia, inflationary pressures continue due to increased import costs caused by sanctions and currency destabilization (weakened ruble), and the Russian central bank has continued to raise its key interest rate, which reached 21% in October, the highest since the start of the aggression. The country also continues to face a severe domestic labor shortage. Restrictions on access to advanced technology due to sanctions imposed by Western countries could have medium- to long-term effects on the economy and society.

(2) Japan-Russia Relations

A Overview

Russia's aggression against Ukraine that began in February 2022 continues to have a serious impact on Japan-Russia relations. In order to stop Russia's aggression as soon as possible, Japan, in cooperation with the international community including the G7, has been taking measures such as imposing severe sanctions against Russia. At the same time, Japan has been appropriately dealing with issues that need to be addressed by Japan and Russia as neighbors, such as those related to fishing and other economic activities as well as maritime and air safety, from the perspective of what is in Japan's national interest in the overall diplomacy of Japan.

With regard to fisheries, even after Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the Government of Japan has been holding discussions with Russia to maintain and secure Japan's interests related to fishing activities. In 2024, fishing operations continued under the “Agreement between the Government of Japan and the Government of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on Mutual Relations in the Field of Fisheries off the coast of Both Countries” and the “Agreement between the Government of Japan and the Government of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics concerning cooperation in the fields of fisheries,” as well as fishing operations based on the Kaigara Island Kelp Agreement, a private agreement. As for the Framework Agreement Concerning Operations of Japanese fishing vessels in the Waters Around the Four Northern Islands,⁽³⁾ in January 2023, Russia notified Japan that it could not arrange for intergovernmental consultations based on the agreement due to Japan's policy toward Russia regarding the situation in Ukraine. The Government of Japan has protested this and continues to urge the Russian side to realize operations to be carried out under the agreement.

Regarding security issues, following the intrusion into Japan's territorial airspace three times in September by a Russian military patrol aircraft over Japanese territorial waters north of Rebun Island in Hokkaido, Japan has lodged a very severe protest with the Russian government and urged that it investigate the cause and prevent a recurrence of such intrusion. Japan has also conveyed serious concerns to the Russian government about the increasing frequency of joint operations between the Chinese and Russian militaries around Japan.

On the subject of cultural and people-to-people exchanges, Japan is conducting projects within an appropriate scope that includes accepting Russian students by the Japanese Government (MEXT) Scholarship and providing Japanese language education in Russia based on the belief that it is important to maintain contact with Russian civil society, especially the younger generation, and to provide Russian citizens with opportunities to gain international perspectives.

In January 2025, the Russian government decided to terminate the application of memorandums between the Japanese and Russian governments regarding the Japan Centers. Japan protested this, stating that the unilateral termination of the memorandums was unacceptable, and demanded that the Russian government's decision be revoked.

• (3) Agreement on the Operation of Japanese Fishing Vessels in the Waters Surrounding the Northern Territories.

B The Northern Territories Issue and Negotiations on a Peace Treaty

The greatest concern between Japan and Russia is the Northern Territories issue. The Northern Territories are islands over which Japan has sovereignty. The islands are an inherent territory of Japan but currently illegally occupied by Russia. The Northern Territories issue is yet to be resolved even after 79 years have passed since the end of World War II, and the Government of Japan firmly worked on the negotiations under the policy of concluding a peace treaty through the resolution of the issue of the attribution of the Four Northern Islands.⁽⁴⁾

However, in March 2022, the Government of Russia, considering the measures taken by Japan in relation to Russia's aggression against Ukraine, announced measures such as discontinuing negotiations on a peace treaty, suspending Free Visits and the Four-Island exchange program, and withdrawing from the dialogue on joint economic activities on the Four Northern Islands. In September, the Government of Russia also announced a government decree suspending the validity of the agreement on free visits and the Four-Island exchange program.

The current situation is entirely the result of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, and Russia's attempt to shift responsibility to Japan is extremely unjust and absolutely unacceptable, and the government has lodged a strong protest against the Russian side.

Although Japan-Russia relations are in a difficult situation due to Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the government will firmly maintain its policy of concluding a peace treaty through the resolution of the issue of the attribution of the Four Northern Islands.

In addition, the Four-Island exchange program,⁽⁵⁾ Free Visits and Visits to Graves in the Northern Territories have not been conducted since 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19 and the deterioration of Japan-Russia relations following Russia's aggression against Ukraine. Resuming the Four-Island exchange program, Free Visits and Visits to Graves in the Northern Territories is one of the highest priorities in Japan-Russia relations. In response to the earnest wishes of the elderly former residents of the islands, the Government of Japan will continue to strongly urge the Russian side to resume these programs, with particular emphasis on Visits to Graves in the Northern Territories.

Japan has also lodged protests against Russia over Russia's moves to build up its military forces in the Four Northern Islands and surrounding waters, including military exercises, stating that these moves are contrary to Japan's position concerning these islands and unacceptable.

• (4) Refer to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website for the position of the Government of Japan on the Northern Territories issue:
  https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/europe/russia/territory/index.html
  
• (5) Refers to Visits to Graves in the Northern Territories, Free Visits, and exchange visits/receptions to the Four Northern Islands

C Japan-Russia Economic Relations

Since Russia's aggression against Ukraine, Japan has continued its policy of suspending, for the time being, government projects related to economic cooperation with Russia while imposing severe sanctions against the country.

Against this backdrop, trade between Japan and Russia in 2024 declined by 16.8% from the previous year (Japan's total trade during the same period was approximately 1,188 billion Japanese yen). Due in part to Japan's sanctions against Russia, exports from Russia to Japan fell 16.7% from the previous year (especially coal), and exports from Japan to Russia also fell 17.2% from the previous year (all sources: Trade Statistics, Ministry of Finance).

With regard to sanctions against Russia, Japan, in cooperation with the G7 and the rest of the international community, has maintained and strengthened severe sanctions against Russia in order to demonstrate that outrageous acts that shake the very foundations of the international order come with a high price. These include sanctions against individuals such as Russian government and military officials, as well as individuals and organizations in Russia and occupied territories, along with sanctions in the financial sector that include freezing assets of several banks, and measures prohibiting imports and exports. Japan and like-minded countries, such as those in the G7, introduced a price cap system for Russian crude oil in December 2022 and for Russian oil products in February 2023, with the aim of stabilizing international oil prices while reducing Russia's energy revenues. In addition, based on a recognition of the importance of ensuring the effectiveness of sanctions amid Russia's prolonged aggression against Ukraine, the G7 leaders confirmed at the G7 Leaders' Video Conference in February 2024 and the G7 Apulia Summit in June that the G7 would further prevent evasion or circumvention of sanctions against Russia, and in June, designated additional entities in third countries suspected of involvement in the circumvention or evasion of sanctions. Russia's procurement of arms from North Korea is a violation of the relevant UN Security Council resolutions and could lead to a further deterioration of the situation in Ukraine. In response, Japan, in cooperation with like-minded countries such as the G7, introduced measures in May that include freezing the assets of individuals and organizations involved in these arms transfers. Furthermore, at the G7 Leaders' Video Conference in December, Prime Minister Ishiba stated that the government was considering imposing additional sanctions on organizations in third countries suspected of being involved in the circumvention or evasion of sanctions.

Regarding the energy sector, the Government of Japan intends to phase out its dependence on Russian energy, including coal and oil, and will take this step in a manner that minimizes adverse effects on Japanese people's lives and business activities. However, the government policy remains focused on maintaining Japan's interests in the “Sakhalin 1” and “Sakhalin 2” oil and natural gas development projects in Russia, as these projects are important to Japan's energy security from the perspective of ensuring a stable supply over the medium- to long-term.

(3) Situation in Belarus

Although Belarus did not take part in Russia's aggression against Ukraine, it supported Russian military action through the use of its territory at the beginning of the aggression. In response to this, Western countries strengthened sanctions against Belarus, while Japan also implemented sanctions against Belarus.

Since then, President Lukashenko has held a series of meetings with President Putin in Moscow and other places to maintain and enhance relations with Russia. Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov, who took up his post in June, visited China and North Korea in succession in July as part of efforts to strengthen ties with countries close to Russia.

In the meantime, Russia and Belarus have been making moves to contain Western countries, such as stating that Russia has completed the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. The international community condemned this as a further escalation of the situation as Russia continues its aggression against Ukraine.

In Belarus, elections for the House of Representatives (lower house) and local councils were held in February, but candidates with anti-government positions were not allowed to run, and only those loyal to the president were elected. No significant protests occurred on election day, but the U.S. pointed out problems such as a lack of democratic procedures and the absence of an Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) election observer mission. In the presidential election on January 26, 2025, President Alexander Lukashenko, who took office in 1994, was elected for a seventh term amid concerns that similar problems had arisen as in the parliamentary elections.