2 Russia and Belarus

(1) Situation in Russia

A Internal Situation in Russia

As Russia's aggression against Ukraine became more protracted, the Russian government brought forward a narrative as if the “special military operation” (aggression against Ukraine) was a “homeland defense war” against the West, appealing to its people for their support and patriotism for the war. In Russia, the introduction of a patriotic curriculum into school education continued from the previous year, and the use of new history textbooks that include descriptions of the “special military operation” also began. At the same time, restrictions on freedom of speech and press have been further tightened, and anti-war movements and protests continue to be contained.

The Russian government has offered a series of preferential measures to support participants in the “special military operation,” and their families, including the creation of a fund, special treatment in higher education and employment, and other benefits. The Russian government has also repeatedly stated that there is no need for further mobilization at this stage, claiming that the number of contract soldiers and other applicants is increasing.

As part of further “Russification” efforts, President Putin himself visited the areas of Ukraine illegally “annexed” by Russia to publicize the progress of reconstruction, and “local assembly elections” were held in these areas in conjunction with Russia's nationwide local elections.

In May, a drone attack on the Kremlin was announced, and frequent drone flights against the city of Moscow and Moscow Oblast were observed, especially during the summer. In June, fighters from the private military company “Wagner,” which had reportedly been at odds with the Russian armed forces and the Ministry of Defense, came within 200 km of Moscow on what they called a “march of justice” (In August, an airplane reportedly carrying “Wagner” leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and some of its leaders crashed, killing all aboard.). However, these incidents did not appear to directly destabilize the domestic situation in Russia.

In December, President Putin announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election while maintaining an approval rating of over 80%.

B Russian Foreign Policy

In order to stop Russia's aggression as soon as possible, Western countries are continuing to make efforts that include support for Ukraine as well as severe sanctions against Russia. Meanwhile, Russia continued its “special military operation” in Ukraine and developed its own narrative blaming the West for international energy and food price hikes. The country's high-level dialogue with the West remains extremely limited, including the suspension of summit-level dialogues between Russia and Germany and between Russia and France that were held on a limited scale in 2022. Furthermore, Finland's accession to NATO has been completed, progress has been made in Sweden's accession to NATO, and the EU has decided to begin negotiations for Ukraine's accession to the EU, which have resulted in significant structural changes in Russia's relations with the West.

President Putin has also been withdrawing from international arms control and disarmament frameworks one after another, signing a law suspending the implementation of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between the U.S. and Russia in February, a law suspending participation in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) in May (the Russian Foreign Ministry announced in November that the withdrawal procedure was completed), and a law to revoke the ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in November. At the same time, the transfer of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia to Belarus has been reported since the spring.

In March, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued warrants of arrest for individuals including President Putin on the grounds that there was sufficient evidence proving their criminal responsibility for the deportation of children from Ukraine.

Against this backdrop, Russia is seeking to strengthen its ties with China, India, North Korea, and developing and emerging countries known as the Global South.

Russia has made particular progress in its relationship with China in various political, economic, and military fields. In March, President Xi Jinping visited Russia on the first foreign trip of his third term and stated that the development of China-Russia relations is a “strategic choice” for China. In October, President Putin visited China to attend the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, and the second face-to-face China-Russia Summit Meeting of 2023 took place. Total trade between China and Russia reached the nations' 200 billion U.S. dollars goal for 2024 in 2023, ahead of schedule. On the military front, Russia has made moves to strengthen ties with China, with its conducting military joint navigation with Chinese naval vessels (July to August) and joint flights with bombers (June and December) in the vicinity of Japan. The joint statement at the China-Russia Summit Meeting in March also stated that “joint maritime and air patrols and joint exercises will be conducted regularly” and that “mutual trust between the militaries of the two countries will be deepened.” The fact that the militaries of China and Russia continue to engage in joint activities with increasing frequency in the vicinity of Japan should be closely monitored with serious concern from the perspective of Japan's security.

In September, North Korea's President of the State Affairs Commission Kim Jong Un visited Russia's Far East region for the first summit meeting held in four years. In addition, mutual visits by the foreign ministers of the two “countries,” as well as the transfer of arms from North Korea to Russia were conducted among other moves to strengthen relations with North Korea. The government of Japan has strongly condemned Russia's procurement of arms from North Korea, urges North Korea and Russia to fully implement United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions, and is closely following Russia's possible military support to North Korea with concern, as it may lead to further deterioration of the situation in Ukraine and constitutes a violation of relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions (UNSCRs) prohibiting the transfer and procurement of all arms and related materiel to and from North Korea.

Russia continued to utilize the regional frameworks in which it participates, hosting the second Russia-Africa Summit in July (St. Petersburg, Russia), which was last held in 2019, as well as the BRICS Summit and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Heads of State Council Meeting.

Russia continues to emphasize relations with Belarus and the Central Asian and Caucasian countries, but there has been some friction in relations with Armenia because of handling of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.¹

In March, Russia revised the “Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation”, which outlines its foreign policy.

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• 1 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: A dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian settlement on Azerbaijani territory.

C Russian Economy

Russia continues its aggression against Ukraine, and has significantly increased defense spending to continue the war. The 2024 budget includes defense spending 1.7 times higher than the previous year (6% of GDP) and a roughly 20% increase in social policy spending, including benefits for soldiers and their families.

Real GDP growth in 2022 fell by 1.2% due to severe sanctions against Russia by the G7 and the EU. However, the government's fiscal stimulus measures and the resulting recovery in domestic consumption and improved production, especially in the manufacturing sector, have stimulated economic growth, and real GDP growth turned positive in the April-June period of 2023. Instead of a sharp decline in energy and other exports to Europe due to the sanctions, Russia is trying to shift eastward by increasing exports to countries that are not imposing sanctions against them such as China, India, and Türkiye. In addition, Russia is attempting to reduce dependence on the dollar by increasing the use of the yuan in trade settlements. In response to restrictions on exports of advanced components and other products from Western countries, the Russian economy is dealing with sanctions by attempting to reroute imports through friendly countries.

Meanwhile, there could be medium- to long-term effects on the economy and society due to continued inflationary pressures, policy interest rate hikes (the Russian Central Bank raised its policy interest rate sequentially from 7.5% to 16% between July and December), labor shortages due to partial mobilization for the “special military operation” against Ukraine and the exodus of the working population, and restrictions on access to advanced technology due to sanctions, and others.

(2) Japan-Russia Relations

A Overview of Japan-Russia Relations

Russia's aggression against Ukraine that began in February 2022 continues to have a serious impact on Japan-Russia relations. In order to stop Russia's aggression as soon as possible, Japan, in cooperation with the international community including the G7, has been taking measures such as imposing severe sanctions against Russia. One such measure in 2023, when Japan held the G7 Presidency, was Japan's leading of a united G7 response at the G7 Summits and Foreign Ministers' Meetings to impose severe sanctions against Russia and strongly support Ukraine. At the same time, Japan has been appropriately dealing with issues that need to be addressed by Japan and Russia as neighbors, such as those related to fishing and other economic activities as well as maritime safety, from the perspective of what is in Japan's national interest in the overall diplomacy of our country.

In June, a bill was passed in Russia to rename September 3 from “Day of the End of World War II” to “Day of Victory over Militaristic Japan and the End of World War II.” In response, the Government of Japan conveyed its position and has been requesting the Russian government to respond appropriately so as not to incite unnecessary emotional conflict between the two peoples.

On the subject of cultural and personal exchange, Japan is conducting projects within an appropriate scope that includes accepting Russian students by the Japanese Government (MEXT) Scholarship and providing Japanese language education in Russia based on the belief that it is important to maintain contact with Russian civil society, especially the younger generation, and to provide Russian citizens with opportunities to gain international perspectives.

With regard to fisheries, the Government of Japan has been holding consultations with Russia to maintain and secure Japan's interests in fisheries activities since Russia's aggression against Ukraine. However, in January, Russia informed Japan that it could not arrange the timing of intergovernmental consultations based on the Framework Agreement Concerning Operations in the Waters Around the Four Northern Islands² because of Japan's policy toward Russia regarding the situation in Ukraine. In response, the Government of Japan has protested and engaged in various communications with the Russian side to enable operations under the agreement, but at this point, no positive response has been received from the Russian side toward the implementation of the operations.

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• 2 Agreement on the Operation of Japanese Fishing Vessels in the Waters Surrounding the Northern Territories.

B The Northern Territories and Negotiations on a Peace Treaty

The greatest concern between Japan and Russia is the Northern Territories issue. The Northern Territories are islands over which Japan has sovereignty. The islands are an inherent territory of Japan but currently illegally occupied by Russia. The Northern Territories issue is yet to be resolved even after 78 years have passed since the end of World War II, and the Government of Japan firmly worked on the negotiations under the policy of concluding a peace treaty through the resolution of the territorial issue.³

However, in March 2022, the Government of Russia, considering the measures taken by Japan in relation to Russia's aggression against Ukraine, announced measures such as discontinuing negotiations on a peace treaty, suspending free visits and the Four-Island exchange program, and withdrawing from the dialogue on joint economic activities on the Four Northern Islands. In September, the Government of Russia also announced a government decree suspending the validity of the agreement on free visits and the Four-Island exchange program.

The current situation is entirely the result of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, and Russia's attempt to shift responsibility to Japan is extremely unjust and absolutely unacceptable, and the government has lodged a strong protest against the Russian side.

Although Japan-Russia relations are in a difficult situation due to Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the government will firmly maintain its policy of concluding a peace treaty through the resolution of the territorial issue.

In addition, the Four-Island exchange program⁴ and other programs have not been conducted since 2020 due to the impact of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the deterioration of Japan-Russia relations following Russia's aggression against Ukraine. The resumption of exchange and other programs involving the Four Islands, including visits to the graves in the Northern Territories, is one of the highest priorities in Japan-Russia relations. With a strong desire to somehow respond to the fervent pleas of the elderly former residents of the islands, the government will continue to strongly urge the Russian side to resume these programs, with particular emphasis now on the visits to the graves in the Northern Territories.

Japan has also lodged protests against Russia over Russia's moves to build up its military forces in the Four Northern Islands, including military exercises, on the grounds that such moves are contradictory to Japan's position regarding these islands.

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• 3 Refer to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website for the position of the Government of Japan on the Northern Territories issue:
  https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/europe/russia/territory/index.html
  
• 4 Refers to Visits to Graves in the Northern Territories, free visits, and exchange visits/receptions to the Four Northern Islands (including receiving patients and expert exchanges).

C Japan-Russia Economic Relations

Since Russia's aggression against Ukraine, Japan has continued its policy of suspending, for the time being, government projects related to economic cooperation with Russia while imposing severe sanctions against the country.

Against this backdrop, trade between Japan and Russia in 2023 declined by 44.3% from the previous year (Japan's total trade during the same period was approximately 1,435.9 billion Japanese yen). Due in part to Japan's sanctions against Russia, exports from Russia to Japan fell 47.2% from the previous year (especially crude oil and coal), and exports from Japan to Russia also fell 34.5% from the previous year (all sources: Trade Statistics, Ministry of Finance).

With regard to sanctions against Russia, Japan, in cooperation with the G7 and the rest of the international community, has maintained and strengthened severe sanctions against Russia in order to demonstrate that outrageous acts that shake the very foundation of the international order come with a high price. These include sanctions against individuals such as Russian government and military officials, as well as organizations in Russia and occupied territories, along with sanctions in the financial sector that include freezing bank assets, and measures prohibiting imports and exports. The G7 and Australia, including Japan, together with the EU, have introduced a price cap system for Russian crude oil since December 2022 and for Russian oil products in February 2023, with the aim of stabilizing international oil prices while reducing Russian energy revenues. In addition, based on a recognition of the importance of ensuring the effectiveness of sanctions amid Russia's prolonged aggression against Ukraine, the G7 leaders confirmed at the G7 Leaders' Video Conference in February and the G7 Hiroshima Summit in May that the G7 would further prevent evasion or circumvention of sanctions against Russia, and in December, Japan decided to introduce measures such as asset freezes and export bans against third country entities suspected of involvement in sanction circumvention or evasion. In addition, the G7, including Japan, has also introduced measures to ban imports of non-industrial diamonds from Russia beginning in January 2024.

Regarding the energy sector, the Government of Japan intends to phase out its dependence on Russian energy, including coal and oil, and will take this step in a manner that minimizes adverse effects on Japanese people's lives and business activities. However, the government policy remains focused on maintaining Japan's interests in the “Sakhalin 1” and “Sakhalin 2” oil and natural gas development projects in Russia, as these projects are important to Japan's energy security from the perspective of ensuring a stable supply over the medium- to long-term.

(3) Situation in Belarus

Belarus began joint military exercises with Russia on February 10, 2022, and although it did not participate in Russia's aggression against Ukraine, which began on February 24, it has supported Russian military actions through the use of its territory. Western countries strengthened sanctions against Belarus, and Japan introduced sanctions against Belarus for the first time.

Since then, President Lukashenko has held a series of meetings with President Putin in Moscow and other places where they have continued to discuss issues such as the continuation of joint military exercises, security and economic initiatives between the two countries, and the defense of the Union State of Russia and Belarus.⁵

In March 2023, President Putin said he had agreed to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. President Lukashenko acknowledged deployment in the country, also made a statement to the effect that all tactical nuclear weapons would be controlled by Belarus, and further stated that the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons was completed in October. The international community condemned this as a further escalation of the situation as Russia continues its aggression against Ukraine.

After the “march for justice” by the Russian private military company “Wagner,” some “Wagner” troops moved to Belarus, which was noted to have caused a temporary increase in tensions with neighboring countries, including Poland and Lithuania, which border the country.

Belarus will hold parliamentary elections in 2024 and presidential elections in 2025, two events that will be closely watched.

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• 5 In December 1999, the two countries signed a treaty creating the Union State of Russia and Belarus with the aim of achieving political, economic, and military integration and equality between the two peoples in social life.