Basic philosophy for addressing global warming
(1) Basic understanding
In order to truly resolve the global-warming issue, it is necessary to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and bring the warming process to a halt. To achieve this goal, which is also identified as the ultimate goal in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by at least 50 percent from current levels. Such reductions are nearly impossible at present, given humankind's dependence on fossil fuel for 90 percent of its commercial energy and developing countries' continued rapid economic growth. Considering the various effects of climate change, however, there is a clear need to make the utmost effort to lower greenhouse gas emissions, starting now. In order to achieve this ultimate goal, humankind must start immediately and work to reduce such emissions over the next 100 years or more. It is essential to always bear in mind that global warming is a long-term issue.
If we strive to reduce the emissions of such greenhouse gases as CO2--the principal greenhouse gas--it will inevitably have a major impact on the economic development of a civilization dependent on fossil fuels. The question becomes one of how far we can reduce CO2 emissions without hampering economic development. The setting of compatible goals will be an important decision for humankind in the future. That long-term targets for emissions of greenhouse gases must be premised on such compatibility was clearly agreed to by the leaders at the Denver Summit of the Eight in June of this year when they stressed the need for "meaningful," "practical," and "equitable" targets.
Countries will continue negotiations toward the setting of targets at COP3 in December to control greenhouse gas emissions by about the year 2010. Without doubt these targets will demand that future emissions be held significantly below the level that current trends would lead to. The main purpose of this Joint Conference was to examine specific policies for reducing greenhouse gases and measures for their enforcement, which will serve as the basis for the achievement of these targets. At the conference, discussions focused on the energy-demand dimension of greenhouse gas emissions because of limited time. But policies related to supply are equally important and are expected to be discussed in future deliberations at related conferences.
The 2010 targets should be seen as guideposts for reaching the ultimate goal of stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. We should always bear in mind that progress toward this goal will depend on the policies and measures employed.
(2) Basic countermeasures philosophy
Global warming is an issue that cannot be addressed after the fact--once it happens, it cannot be reversed. As mentioned in the previous section, it is an issue demanding a long-term perspective of 100 years or more. As it represents an imminent crisis, however, we must begin to address it immediately. This necessitates the use of a two-track approach. Some tasks must be tackled now for the short term, while others must be tackled over the medium to long term.
First, in terms of short-term tasks, the Joint Conference examined reports on technically and economically feasible measures the government has proposed for the industrial, transport, and commercial/residential sectors, bearing in mind the formation of an international framework for around the year 2010 at COP3 and giving first priority to voluntary efforts toward the reduction of CO2 emissions by businesses and the public. Consideration was given not just to the size of reductions attainable but also specific measures and methods for attaining them. The result is a collection of comprehensive and feasible measures that can be presented for the public's inspection. It is also an experiment to promote the building of a society that can attain sustainable development and to integrate environmental measures into the Japanese economy.
Second, it is essential that every member of the nation make voluntary and active efforts to build a society that places little load on the environment in order to resolve the global warming issue. Each and every member of the nation must see himself or herself as a global citizen who does whatever is possible to address global warming. From this perspective, we must reassess our mass-consumption, mass-waste lifestyles in order to minimize impact on the environment.
Third, in terms of longer-range tasks, a key need is innovation in technology that will enable breakthroughs in emission reductions. There are clear limits to actions that rely on the application of currently conceivable measures. Making large-scale reductions in CO2 demands more than just a quantitative increase in traditional measures. It is also essential to firmly promote the development of innovative technology that enables qualitative change and to apply and disseminate that technology as early as possible.
These tasks make it necessary for businesses to develop and introduce energy-saving technology and facilities and to invest in medium- to long-term technological innovation. They will therefore have to shoulder a certain level of costs. As a result of the past two oil crises, Japan has already made considerable efforts to conserve energy, especially in the industrial sector, and further progress in this direction is likely to be harder and more costly. In order to cover these costs and realize a society that exerts minimal impact on the environment, Japan must also sustain the vitality of its economy.
This can be achieved through the combination of various policies, including appropriate regulatory measures and incentives. It should be pointed out that such a combination of policy measures will also have positive economic effects--such as creating new demand and environmental industries and promoting technological innovation--while also being important in terms of making the Japanese industrial structure environmentally sound and promoting economic activity.
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