Speech by Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba at the Japan National Press Club
Japan's Prosperity Depends on its Ties to the Asia-Pacific

December 14, 2011

Japanese

(Opening Remarks)

Good afternoon, and thank you all for coming. As just introduced, I am Koichiro Gemba. Today I would like to address the question of how Japan's future prosperity is tied to the Asia-Pacific, with a particular focus on the various issues facing the region.

Around a hundred days have passed since I assumed the post of Minister for Foreign Affairs. In my inaugural press conference I said that, as the person responsible for Japan's diplomacy, I would do my utmost to maximize the country's national interests. In contemplating those national interests, as I mentioned at that first press conference, I always bear in mind the emphasis Confucius placed on "military, food, and confidence." My own interpretation of those three terms is that "military" corresponds to security and diplomacy, "food" to prosperity, and "confidence" to values.

What is needed to be done in order to maximize Japan's national interests? To come right to the point, we should minimize risks in the Asia-Pacific and maximize opportunities for growth in the region. This calls for a prosperous and stable order in the Asia-Pacific, based on democratic values.

Since assuming my post, my impression has been that a degree of progress is being made with regard to this task through the deepening of discussions with leaders and ministers of various countries.

Today is the first opportunity for me as Minister for Foreign Affairs to take the time to explain at some length the thinking that underlies both how I have addressed diplomatic issues thus far and the direction in which I would like our diplomacy to move in the months and years ahead, with particular reference to the Asia-Pacific and the issues just mentioned.

(Japan's Foreign Policy and the World and the Asia-Pacific Region)

(1) The Changing International Situation and the Growing Importance of the Asia-Pacific Region

Let me begin by taking a look at the present situation of the world we inhabit.

The world today is going through an upheaval. Perhaps the key characteristics of the period are the new connections being forged between individuals across national borders and the increasing diversity of those playing an active international role as a result.

Information and Communication Technology progressed by leaps and bounds in the first decade of the 21st century. Last year, the number of Internet users worldwide passed the two-billion mark. And around 90% of the world's population now uses cellular phones. With the advance of globalization, it has become commonplace for not only information but also goods, people, and capital to move back and forth across national borders. It is said that some 200 million people live outside their country of birth. As the so-called Arab Spring has shown, the ICT revolution has led to remarkable solidarity between individuals in regions around the world.

The undertakings of the international community are no longer the sole preserve of national governments. We are seeing a deepening of understanding between citizens in different countries, companies now develop their businesses on a global level, and in the realm of civil society, new international partnerships are being forged between universities, nongovernmental organizations, and others. It seems to me that in today's world, where actors of all kinds are involved in international undertakings, the time has come for humanity to strive for a new order that brings stability and prosperity to those undertakings?going beyond the balance of power between sovereign states that has maintained the world order for the past several centuries.

Next, let me again share some of my thoughts on the characteristics of the Asia-Pacific region.

Supported as it is by abundant human resources and robust growth, we can expect the Asia-Pacific region to continue to drive the global economy in the years to come. The Asia-Pacific is home to around four billion of the world's seven billion people. The middle-class stratum in Asian nations now consists of nearly 950 million people?around 940 million to be more precise?and by 2020 this is expected to increase to around two billion. Personal consumption is expected to be 4.5 times greater than that of Japan.

Another factor to bear in mind is the closely intertwined supply chain being formed across the entirety of the Asia-Pacific, backed by investment led by Japan. In the APEC region, for example, nearly 70% of all trade consists of transactions between member economies, a figure comparable to the level among EU nations. Nor is this influence restricted to the economic sphere. The Asia-Pacific will clearly continue to become an increasingly important presence on the international stage.

Along with opportunities for growth, however, there has also been an increase in the risks that threaten stability. Concentrated in Northeast Asia are countries with military forces on the scale of a million troops each. When troops in East Asia and Oceania are included, the total number of military forces in Asia-Pacific countries is around 6.7 million?roughly three times the overall troop strength of NATO member states excluding the United States. There are also growing concerns over the threats posed by North Korea not only to the region but also to the international community as a whole, such as the issues of abduction and its nuclear and missile development programs. The security situation in the region is increasingly precarious, against a background of modernizing military forces and intensifying maritime activity in the region's waters. Territorial issues remain. In 2012, there is the possibility of leadership change in several of Japan's neighbors, including China, the Republic of Korea, and Russia.

The discussions I have had to date with leaders from around the Asia-Pacific region have therefore taken place in the context of an increased need for cooperation among the region's members in response to these opportunities and risks.

The Japan-U.S. Alliance is the linchpin of Japan's safety, diplomatic and security policy, and is at the same time a public good maintaining the peace and stability not only of the Asia-Pacific region but also of the world. The alliance is also essential to Japan's own recovery and its prosperity following the March 11 disaster. Since my inauguration as Minister for Foreign Affairs, I have continued to work consistently to deepen and develop this alliance through various occasions such as Japan-U.S. Foreign Ministerial Meetings.

During my trip to the Republic of Korea in October I took part in talks with ROK officials aimed at building multilayered relations. In China, I reaffirmed with Chinese officials Japan's aim to deepen the "Mutually Beneficial Relationship Based on Common Strategic Interests" between the two countries. At the Japan-Russia Foreign Ministers' Meeting held during the recent APEC Ministerial Meeting in Honolulu, I also conveyed to my Russian counterpart Japan's willingness to build an appropriate relationship with Russia as a partner in the Asia-Pacific region.

On my visit to Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia, I was able to promote cooperative relationships between Japan and those three countries in such areas as support for infrastructure development, and made progress in terms of strengthening cooperation with the East Asia Summit and the Japan-ASEAN Summit in sight. With regard to the TPP, prior to the APEC Summit, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda announced that Japan will enter into consultations with the countries concerned toward participating in the TPP negotiations.

At the General Assembly of the United Nations held just after my appointment as Minister for Foreign Affairs, I chaired or co-chaired meetings on issues including nuclear safety and security, the Millennium Development Goals, and disarmament and nonproliferation. I have also been engaged in Japan's contribution of personnel to UN peacekeeping operation in South Sudan as one of global efforts of Noda Administration.

(2) Network Diplomacy: Creating Open, Multilayered Networks and Rules Conforming with International Law

As Japan confronts these changes in the international environment and in the Asia-Pacific region, it needs to act constructively on its own initiative to make an active contribution to the prosperity and stability in the region, so that Japan can prosper together with the region as a whole. This will require building of an open and multilayered network.

Japan has a history of drawing on its unique kind of conceptual power to contribute to the peace and prosperity of the region. In November, I attended the APEC Ministerial Meeting. The original seeds for the idea of creating APEC as a means of generating prosperity through cooperation across the vast Asia-Pacific were planted by our predecessors. This is an example of Japan's conceptual power. The impression I got from my discussions with other ASEAN counterparts was that the wisdom of our predecessors is being put to good use.

As you know, U.S. President Obama stated in Australia, which is a strategic partner for Japan, that the United States was going to review its diplomacy and security priorities and would place the greatest importance on the Asia-Pacific region. This new policy is very encouraging, as Japan-U.S. cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region has been and will remain a pillar of Japan's diplomacy. During my visit to the U.S. starting this weekend, I would like to carry out even more in-depth discussions on the Japan-U.S. partnership in the Asia-Pacific region.

A moment ago I touched on creating a prosperous and stable order in the Asia-Pacific region, bolstered by democratic values. I believe that, as a member of Asia, Japan has a role to play precisely because we have developed up to now by holding on to our Asian values while flexibly incorporating Western values as well. This is an order to be created through partnership among countries on an equal footing; it is an order to be forged through mutual respect among all the countries in the region and through conscious efforts to deepen their ties on the basis of their own volition. Such an order is to be created through voluntary and spontaneous deliberation by each country in the context of its inherent historical, political and economic development, and the process of its creation requires time and patience. I believe that it is precisely by going through such a process that the fruits of prosperous growth will spread to everyone living in the region. Before the end of this year I plan to visit Myanmar, Thailand, and Cambodia; and in the case of Myanmar in particular, Japan intends to support the efforts of the Government of Myanmar aimed at further progress towards democratization and national reconciliation.

Now, let me elaborate on the meaning of the open and multilayered network, of which I spoke a bit earlier.

First of all, the term "multilayered" refers to multinational cooperation in which various sorts of activities are carried out, functionally incorporating the regional frameworks for dialogue?whether bilateral, trilateral or multilateral. ASEAN, for example, along with the efforts aimed at expanding and deepening integration among its members, has also enhanced dialogues with non-ASEAN countries, such as through Japan-Mekong Cooperation, ASEAN+3 and the East Asia Summit. With the ASEAN Regional Forum included, ASEAN-related fora cover more members and areas of activities. It is also important to enhance the cooperation with Australia in security as well as economic areas and to strengthen the Strategic and Global Partnership with India. There are already frameworks of dialogue in place among Japan-China-ROK, Japan-US-ROK, and Japan-US-Australia at a governmental level. Furthermore, trilateral dialogue between Japan, the United States, and India is also set to get under way. As for the Pacific, Japan will host the Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting (PALM) in 2012 in Okinawa. Then there is APEC, which is advancing regional economic integration among the countries and regions surrounding the Pacific.

Enhancing connectivity in the ASEAN region is also vital to the creation of a regional network. At the Japan-ASEAN Summit meeting, Prime Minister Noda announced the assistance plan based on the pillars of upgrading of "Formation of the Vital Artery for East-West and Southern Economic Corridor" and "Maritime Economic Corridor" and improving "soft infrastructure."If those various projects with total estimated cost of 2 trillion yen are implemented, they will facilitate flow of people, goods, and capital among ASEAN members and maximize regional potential.

Secondly, rule making, which will become the foundation such a network and sustain a new regional order, must be adhered to international law. This is another area where Japan must lead from the front. This is an idea for broadening the political, economic, and social ties in the region by sharing common principles and rules in a variety of fields, in accordance with international law. The new ACTA [Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement] framework on intellectual property initiated by Japan and the declaration adopted at the East Asia Summit meeting in November, stipulating respect for the international law with regard to the sea and other activities, are examples of this idea.

The third point concerns the term "open" networks, which means that they should be widely open to the countries in the entire region. In addition to governments, the networks include the interaction of companies, NGOs, intellectuals and a broad range of citizens. One example of this open approach was the recently held ASEAN Business and Investment Summit. The key characteristic of the Asia-Pacific networks is that they are open to everyone and thus allow the participants to fully showcase their individual personalities. The networks have to be attractive to their potential participants so that they function well.

To avoid misunderstanding, let me emphasize here that the creation of open, multilayered networks in the Asia-Pacific region will definitely require the full participation of China. The network in this case never ever means enclosure or exclusion of China. Rather, it is important that Japan and China work together to build peace and prosperity in the region. One specific example of this is the cooperation on the sea as public goods in the Asia-Pacific region, which was suggested by Japan at the East Asia Summit meeting and others. Discussions are now under way to promote dialogue and cooperation with regard to maritime affairs.

China's development offers opportunities. Japan and China are seeking to address a variety of issues for the sake of commonly held interests, and this approach can be said to fit in with the two countries' "mutually beneficial relationship based on common strategic interests." In my recent visit to China, I shared the understanding with my Chinese counterparts that it is important to strengthen our bilateral relationship so that Japan and China can constructively address the challenges facing the region and the world. As I said at the outset, deepening the Japan-U.S. Alliance is important for Japan to play a leading role in creating networks in the Asia-Pacific region. Clearly, the Japan-U.S. Alliance will remain the linchpin of Japan's diplomacy in the future as well. At the same time, it is my view that it is important for Japan, as a member of Asia, to work hand in hand with China?our neighbor separated by a thin strip of water and one of the major countries in Asia?to create a stable and prosperous order together with other Asia-Pacific countries. I believe that only by such collaboration will it be possible for Japan to lead the process of creation of networks and rules in which the members of the region, including the United States and China, participate by their own will and create a new order in the Asia-Pacific. In this sense, we are entering an era in which strategic dialogue and cooperation between Japan, the United States and China should be more important than ever. To this end, I believe the trilateral talks should start. Peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific is clearly unachievable unless those three key countries join hands in cooperation. Facilitating such cooperation should be the role that Japan should play to benefit not only the Asia-Pacific region but also the world as a whole; Japan should make every effort to accomplish that task.

(3) The Orientation of Japan's Foreign Policy: Conceptual Power and "Turning the Tables"

So far I have spoken about the network-building efforts that Japan is stressing. Now I would like to turn my talk to the future. What will Japan draw on as its investments in the future? I would like to offer two key terms in this connection: conceptual power and turning the tables.

In fact, Japan has already been using its conceptual power to take a lead in original initiatives in various fields.

First, I would like to cite human security. I think this is one example of the kind of conceptual power in which Japan can take pride on a global level. Since I assumed the post of Minister for Foreign Affairs, the more I go out on the international scene, the more clearly I can see how brightly this concept of human security shines in the world. It focuses on individual human beings exposed to a variety of threats, including poverty, infectious diseases, and environmental destruction, and aims to promote nation-building that will allow people to live their lives with dignity, free from fear and want. Japan has energetically led the discussion on this concept in the international community. These efforts have borne fruit; last year, the United Nations General Assembly held official discussions on the subject for the first time and adopted a resolution concerning human security. The concept is steadily gaining ground. The deadline for achieving the Millennium Development Goals is coming up in 2015. In formulating a new framework for development, Japan will continue to draw on its conceptual power, and will work to place the concept of human security at the forefront of efforts to deal with development issues.

Since my time as Minister of State for National Policy, I have always said that the essence of strategy becomes apparent above all when "turning the tables." I have come to feel this even more strongly in my work as Minister for Foreign Affairs. By being the first to find solutions for difficulties that nobody has experienced before, we can win the trust of the world as a lead runner in problem-solving. I believe Japan has the power to do this. If Japan shows itself to the world acting in this capacity, its international presence will be dramatically enhanced. And clearly, "turning the tables" requires conceptual power.

As an issue on which we should "turn the tables," I would first cite the revitalization of disaster-struck Fukushima Prefecture. We should not continue to be downcast indefinitely. When I visit Fukushima Prefecture, many people tell me they are worried about their health. As I have suggested to the Governor of the prefecture, how about setting a target of making Fukushima the prefecture with the lowest cancer rates of all Japan's 47 prefectures 20 or 30 years from now? I am confident that this can be accomplished if a comprehensive system of checks on what people eat and on cigarette smoking are introduced. Further, while Japan as a whole is aiming to phase out its dependence on nuclear power by reducing the number of nuclear power plants, Fukushima has declared its intention to build a society without dependence on nuclear power. Having made this declaration, the prefecture should aim to become the lead runner in the field of renewable energy. As part of my own direct involvement in this, I have suggested shifting some of the government's renewable energy research facilities to Fukushima Prefecture, aiming to create jobs by concentrating industry in the region. I believe that moves of this sort, turning the impact of the disaster on its head and using it for invigoration, are in a way the essence of strategy.

The same goes for building the foundations for a global shift to a green economy. Strengthening Japan's top-class environmental and energy technologies and accelerating the process of green innovation is what I have been working forever since I chaired the government's Energy and Environment Council. After March 11, Japan decided to review from scratch the latest Basic Energy Plan. A key point in this connection is energy conservation. For example, people always look at the share of nuclear power in the plans for 2007 and 2030, but to my way of thinking the most noteworthy feature of the plan is that the figure for total power generation is exactly the same for 2007 and 2030. In other words, it is not just a question of what proportion of our energy comes from nuclear power; when we compare 2007 and 2030, energy-saving technology will play a crucial part in determining to what extent we are able to keep the total amount of power generation down while still achieving economic growth. In the long term, and I hope you will bear with me if this gets a little technical, I think research and development in the areas of batteries, energy loss, and materials will be crucial. Let me explain. Batteries allow energy to be stored. Energy loss, as many of you are probably aware, refers to the problem of electrical power lost in the course of transmission, which is equivalent to the amount generated by six nuclear reactors. And the catalyst is the technology to make things lighter. We need to aim for revolutionary technological breakthroughs in these three areas, and to help make them happen I think the government should take the lead and appropriate funding for R&D investments in these areas starting with the budget for fiscal year 2012. Private-sector enterprises invest in improvements of existing technologies, but in cases where it is hard for them to invest in R&D for next generation technology, I believe the government should take the initiative and solidly prioritize this issue. Meanwhile, Japan has already presented a variety of concepts to Asia and the entire world. In particular, the East Asia Low?Carbon Growth Partnership and the bilateral offset credit mechanism have been warmly welcomed by the international community. Over the past three months [since I became Minister for Foreign Affairs], I have met with many ministers, including Indonesia's Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa, and I have worked to explain our vision in detail and sought their understanding. The East Asia Low-Carbon Growth Partnership was included in the chairman's statement at the East Asia Summit.

Disaster risk reduction may be another area for turning the tables, in a sense. Recent terrible floods in Thailand show the escalation of natural disasters in recent years. This is another area where we can make a contribution through our conceptual power. Next year I hope to hold an international conference [on ]disaster risk reduction in the disaster-struck Tohoku region. I want to mainstream disaster risk reduction into international cooperation policy. From this perspective I would like to introduce our work to launch ASEAN Disaster Management Network Initiative throughout Asia.

The TPP is another area in which we should seek to "turn the tables." Thirty-five years from now, in 2046, Japan's population is expected to fall below 100 million. Unfortunately, unlike some other forecasts, demographic predictions are said to come true. The domestic market of 100 million will continue to be very important, but we need to ask whether this domestic demand alone will be enough to allow Japan to pass on a certain level of economic growth and affluence to the next generation and the generation after that. In this sense, I think we need to look at the Asia-Pacific region?home to 4 billion of the world's 7 billion people, as I noted earlier?and think of the demand generated by these 4 billion people as our own domestic demand. Japan has concluded 13 free trade agreements to date, including one with Peru that will soon come into effect, but our coverage rate?the share of total trade represented by countries with which we have FTAs?is less than half the rate of the Republic of Korea. Now that Japan has indicated its intention to enter into consultations toward participating in the TPP negotiations with the countries concerned, we will also see moves toward Japan-China-ROK FTA. I believe that there is increasing momentum toward regional economic integration. We are currently working to achieve a substantive agreement on a trilateral investment agreement with China and the ROK by within this year. With respect to the TPP, as Minister for Foreign Affairs, I will of course do everything in my power to maximize Japan's national interests. We will also push ahead with our efforts in connection with bilateral FTAs, broad or regional economic partnerships which are being studied at present, and the WTO Doha Round. In all of these negotiations, it will be more important than ever for us to engage proactively with the outside world while maintaining Japan's national interests and independent posture.

Japan's low birthrate and aging population may seem to have little to do with foreign policy, but I believe this is another area in which we need to "turn the tables." Japan is undergoing a demographic shift?fewer children being born and a rising population of elderly people?and this is causing the working-age population to shrink. The contraction of our labor force actually started in the mid-1990s. Meanwhile, many other Asian countries are experiencing similar demographic shifts of their own. In China and the ROK, the proportion of the population contributing to the labor force will start to fall in around 2015. Some estimates suggest that the turning point for China will come as early as 2013. There are predictions that the labor force in the ROK will contract even more rapidly than Japan's. And even in India and the Philippines, where the speed of this shift will be slowest, the labor force will start to decline in size from around 2045 to 2050. Japan happens to be confronting these issues sooner than other countries. By tapping our conceptual power and showing the rest of the world how to resolve the problems presented by this demographic shift, and becoming the lead runner in addressing these issues, I think we can make a valuable international contribution. I believe that the combined reform of social security and taxes that the Noda administration is undertaking has the potential to become a model for the world of how to address these problems.

(Conclusion)

In conclusion, I would note that after the earthquake last March people around the world praised the Japanese for their diligence and toughness, with many countries' foreign ministers using terms like "resilience." In addition to such advantages , the Japanese have the flexibility to adopt things skillfully from overseas. While continuing to cherish the thinking, methods, and views handed down by their forebears, the Japanese people have absorbed universal values like democracy and the rule of law, skillfully adapted them, and gone on to create new technology and culture that have won the esteem of the rest of the world.

I believe we must recover our self-confidence and pride based on these accomplishments and, while spreading Japan's diverse attractions to the world, strive to overcome our country's recent inward-looking tendency. As I have noted in my talk today, the Asia-Pacific is a region rich in diversity and potential. Japan can make a unique contribution by undertaking sustained, empathetic cooperation to promote the adoption of universal values and cutting-edge technologies through activities including human resource development, while respecting the cultures, traditions, and values rooted in each particular region. Japan has been making steady, patient efforts of this sort, both through initiatives by individual enterprises and through the government's Official Development Assistance program. In compiling the budget for the coming fiscal year, I hope we can manage to reverse the contraction of our ODA appropriations, which have shrunk by almost half over the past 14 years. Reversing this trend would serve as a symbol of our escape from the tendency to look inward. I will do my utmost to make it happen.

Today I have spoken about foreign policy in the Asia-Pacific region. I will arrange another occasion to share my thoughts on Japan's proper response to issues on a global scale, along with ways of mobilizing our ODA and various actors from the private sector in this context, including moves to promote greater cooperation with enterprises and nongovernmental organizations.

I will continue to work on building a better world and on addressing the task confronting today's political leaders and Japan as a whole, which is to ensure that we pass on our affluence to the next generation. I request your understanding and cooperation.

Thank you very much.

(Q&A)

Moderator: How in concrete terms are you going to handle the trilateral strategic dialogue among Japan, China, and the United States?

Also, you say that you want to somehow reverse the decline in ODA, which has contracted by half, and increase the amount, but this won't be possible unless other people in the Democratic Party of Japan and the administration think the same way. What kind of prospect do you have in mind?

Minister: As for Japan-US-China trilateral talk, we already have "track 2," so-called expert dialogue among the three countries. At the same time, if you forgive me for using a technical term, the framework for track 1.5 discussions, meaning Japan-US-China talks involving both experts outside government and government officials, is gradually taking shape. This is my understanding of the current state of affairs.

Although there is little prospect of an immediate start of the dialogue at the moment, I would like to say we need to work toward making this happen. I believe that we are entering a period in which strategic stability among Japan, the United States, and China will be vital, if we bear in mind the current situation and the prospects for the future that I outlined earlier. To put it another way, I think that Japan has an important role to play in securing strategic stability among Japan, the United States, and China, in the course of continuing to strengthen the Japan-US alliance while Japan and China maintaining a win-win, mutually beneficial bilateral relationship, and both Japan and China playing constructive roles on regional and global issues. I will convey my thoughts on this to Secretary of State Clinton when I visit the United States.

On the subject of ODA, as you say, the amount has decreased by about half over the past 14 years. It is my strong determination to make this the bottom point and increase it, even if only slightly, starting with the budget for next fiscal year. And just as you say, I need to find advocates within the DPJ for this purpose. I am moving ahead carefully.

Tokyo Shimbun: I quite agree with the idea of minimizing risks and increasing opportunities, but I would like to ask you about two points concerning the concrete efforts you will make with regard to Japan-China relations, which is fraught with especially large risks among others.

First, when you visited China on November 23, you had a very constructive dialogue, but six Chinese naval ships caused an incident by passing through the seas near Japan. Ever since the time of Foreign Minister Matsumoto, whenever there has been some positive development in Japan-China relations, it has been followed time and again by acts of provocation from China's maritime forces. This should continuously be a source of very large risks in the future. How did you interrogate the Chinese side about this, and what sort of response did you get?

The second point concerns the schedule for Prime Minister Noda's visit to China: I heard that initially it was scheduled on December 12 and 13, but December 13, as the anniversary of the Nanjing Massacre, is a day when commemorative events are at a high pitch in China, a day full of anti-Japanese sentiment. So I wasn't surprised when the visit was postponed. What did the Ministry of Foreign Affairs aim by choosing this date of all days for the visit? Or, what sort of explanation did you make to the Prime Minister's Office about the risks involved?

Minister: You mentioned that, Chinese naval vessels passed between the islands of Okinawa and Miyakojima during my visit to China. One point to note is that this dates back to around 2008; another question concerns the degree of coordination that existed?between the Chinese Foreign Ministry and the national defense authorities, namely, the People's Liberation Army. That was why I raised these points with Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi. There are different sorts of maritime institutions, and I suggested to him that Japan and China should set up platforms for dialogue to build confidence between these institutions at every level. I hope we will be able to move in that direction.

As for Prime Minister Noda's visit to China, I can't tell you the details of the discussions, but in any case it was decided to rearrange the schedule on the basis of a request from the Chinese side. I see no reason to expect that this rearrangement will have any negative effect on Prime Minister Noda's visit, though it may have a positive effect.

Moderator: That's not a direct answer. What made you suggest this timetable in the first place? Was it a matter of "nothing ventured, nothing gained"? You're not giving much consideration to the questioner.

Minister: This is a diplomatic issue, and another country is involved; I noted your intention, but I think it's best for me to refrain from going into the concrete details of the discussions in a forum like this. In sum, at least the initial arrangement was made that way. You could look at it the other way, and say that we have become able to communicate clearly as a result. I think it is right to understand the result as I said, including the rearrangement of the schedule?and what happened during the preparation of the visit.

Nikkei: The idea that Japan's prosperity depends on its ties to the Asia-Pacific is self-evident and not that new. Why did you decide to deliver that particular message today? That's one question.

One more: This is a sort of follow-up on the earlier question about ODA. I don't know the technical details of what goes on at the budgetary request stage, but I understand that the Foreign Ministry's request was down by 8.2%, except budget allocations reserved for restoration and high-priority measures. You explained earlier that human security is important as a concept for the future, and presumably ODA is what will serve as the basis for this. So it sounds a bit as though your words and deeds do not match. Your talk of reversing the contraction of ODA that has halved sounds like a declaration of intent, but how persuasive is that going to be? Please explain this again.

Minister: As to why I delivered this sort of speech at this juncture, to be honest, I've received numerous requests to make speeches and such, but I've turned them all down. But I thought it was appropriate to speak at a forum like this Japan National Press Club, which is open and in which many people are involved, to give an orderly account of my efforts so far; I also thought that this was an appropriate juncture, now that the Diet session has ended, for me to talk about the period to come in the most orderly fashion possible.

And as for ODA, I urge you to watch the outcome. You suggested that I was just making a declaration of intent, but it is my nature to do what I say, and so I want to make this come true somehow.

Moderator: The budgetary request was submitted under the previous foreign minister, before you took office. Is that what you are talking about?

Minister: In fact that is true about the budgetary request, but there is no point in saying this or that about the previous minister; I would just note that on the technical side - I was responsible for the budget compilation process last year in my capacity as DPJ Policy Research Committee Chair and State Minister for National Policy, - that there are methods ? the allocations reserved for high-priority measures, and so forth ? so I am working on it solidly.

Muslim World: Since 9/11 Pakistan has borne such great sacrifices in connection with the international community's campaign against terrorism. Recently a U.S. plane came in and 24 Pakistani soldiers were killed, and now relations between the two countries have greatly deteriorated. Because of the trouble, I think it's rather difficult for the two countries to speak to each other directly. How about Japan's efforts or role in this connection?

Minister: Thank you. That accident occurred in Pakistan, and as you say, relations with the United States, or to go further, emotions as well have deteriorated seriously. Particularly in the case of Pakistan, I think the military is extremely strong.

Actually, I have a course of action in mind on this matter, and although I cannot make a declaration or speak about it at this stage, there is something I want to attempt before the end of the year, giving some consideration to relations with the United States. There is the question of whether and to what degree we will be able to act as an intermediary, but in any case, as we also have the issue of Afghanistan, and in order to solidly implement assistance for that country, I believe relations with Pakistan are important. In particular, as you know, with respect to Afghanistan, 33,000 members of the U.S. armed forces will be withdrawn. We also had the International Afghanistan Conference in Bonn. Next year, it is Japan's turn to take the lead in a sense by holding a meeting on Afghanistan in July in Tokyo. So I hope to lead the discussions on how we can continue to support Afghanistan, while observing the actual conditions following the withdrawal of U.S. forces or anticipating the outlook.

Japan Agricultural News: In connection with the TPP, this involves the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries as well, I think it is only natural that this looks like a US-led encirclement of China no matter how you look at it. Earlier you spoke of maintaining balance in various respects; in that connection it seems to me that ASEAN+6, which extends to include India, is a much more realistic approach to incorporating growth. My first question is about the balance in this area?that is, between the TPP and ASEAN+6.

One more question: You will be traveling to the United States from the 18th [of December]; to what extent will you be using this trip to deal with the issues we have been hearing about?beef, postal services, automobiles, and the BSE , Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy? These may touch on areas of diplomatic secrecy, but I would like to hear what you can say.

Fuji Television: You've called for Japan-U.S.-China dialogue, but there are some points that I did not quite understand. Aside from the question of how much concrete progress has been made on this at the working level, I'd like to hear your own thoughts about the timing and the level at which you want to start this dialogue, and whether you envisage a forum with regularly scheduled meetings. I also would like to ask about the prime minister's schedule for his trip to China?has it been fixed on the 25th and 26th of December? And when he travels to China on the 25th and 26th, is there going to be an opportunity for him to request the Chinese to participate in this sort of trilateral dialogue?

Minister: As for the balance between the TPP and other initiatives, such as Japan-China-ROK, ASEAN+3, and ASEAN+6, to put it simply, as I mentioned briefly earlier, we have announced that we will enter into consultations toward participating in the TPP negotiations, and partly because of this, serious movement is getting started with respect to a Japan-China-ROK FTA.

I would like you to understand, though, that ASEAN+6 is still at the study stage. As for a Japan-China-ROK FTA, the fact that we might conclude trilateral investment agreement first of all within this year is actually extremely significant. There are demands for black box disclosure, to give you a comparison. If the other parties would promise not to do that sort of thing, that in itself would represent major progress.

Coming back to the TPP for a bit, I believe that it is meaningful in various respects. In my remarks earlier I spoke in general terms, but it is meaningful not just in economic terms but also from the viewpoint of foreign policy as a whole and national security. As I said before, it matters to us that United States commits itself to the Asia-Pacific, and that we build multilayered relationships with ASEAN and countries like India and Australia. Another point is that, even though it might take a certain amount of time, I estimated that this would probably lead to China's participation in a high-level economic partnership agreement?or perhaps I should say it would provide encouragement?and I think it is turning out just that way. I believe this is a good thing for the United States, and for China, as well as for Japan. With respect to issues like agriculture?and I would like to note that I am from the disaster-affected region myself and have been elected for 18 years as a Diet member from a district that includes farming areas?I am giving ample thought to a variety of matters.

I would like you to understand that basically there is a process first of all in which we need to gain the consent before participating in the negotiations, in a number of senses. It is often said that it is important to win what must be won and to defend, what must be defended. I think that it is quite true. The proper approach is to do so in the negotiations. But before the negotiations, you may need to gain such results in bilateral talks in advance. I think this would probably apply to matters raised in the second question?be it beef, or postal services, or automobiles.

I do not yet know whether these will be discussed in preliminary talks. But the possibility exists. As for beef, though, particularly concerning the issue of BSE, it is strictly a matter of having started to move on the basis of scientific findings now that 10 years have passed.

As for automobiles and postal services, it is possible. The possibility exists. Basically, though, we have first the matters that should be settled through consultations in advance. Second are the matters that will be carried over to the TPP negotiations. And then there are the matters on which separate, bilateral talks will take place while the TPP negotiations are underway?in other words, matters that should not be taken to the TPP negotiations but handled strictly through the bilateral talks. My expectation is that the issues will fall into these three categories. That's all I care to say.

As for the level of the Japan-US-China dialogue, the question concerned the level at which I envisage this dialogue taking place, in concrete terms. To be honest, it might be best to start at the senior working level, and then to bring it up to ministerial level later if possible. This is my thinking on it at the present time.

Fuji Television: At what timing do you think it would be?

Minister: It is still a long way off. But at some stage I hope it will get there. But at some stage that's what I hope will happen. As I said earlier, my stance is that I do what I say, so a mere declaration of intent wouldn't be good enough. First we need to build a framework for that sort of dialogue at the senior working level. Then after that, perhaps we can move to the ministerial level.

Moderator: Earlier, I said the budgetary request was submitted before [Foreign Minister Gemba assumed his post], but apparently that is not the case. It was done under the Noda administration and its ministers. But I'm afraid we are out of time now, so I will wrap things up here.