Section 6. Middle East
Item 1. Major Regional Developments
The sweeping internal reforms in the Soviet Union, and the progress of democratization in Eastern Europe, accompanied by changes in East-West relations, are producing a measure of impact on the Middle East region. A case in point is the Afghan situation in which, albeit a number of uncertainties still existing, the dialogue between the United States and the Soviet Union on this problem has made headway toward a political settlement, clearly reflecting the detente between the superpowers. Also, moves for the unification of North and South Yemen - a question pending since the 1970s - have rapidly gained momentum after November 1989 and came to fruition in May 1990. Clearly, the changes in East-West relations worked to bring together South Yemen which followed the pro-Soviet line and North Yemen which advocated a non-alliance policy while obtaining military and economic aid from the United States. Also some see an influence of democratization in Eastern Europe in such moves as the rise of the movement to reopen an assembly in Kuwait, and the first multi-party elections in Algeria.
At the same time East-West relations centered on Eastern Europe have focused attention from the international community, the result was the less attention paid to the Middle East. While global arms reduction was well under way reflecting changes in the U.S.-Soviet relations and the easing of tensions between East and West, proliferation of conventional weapons, strategic weapons including medium-range missiles, military technology, chemical weapons, etc. was observed in the Middle East.
This constitutes a risk of deterioration in the situation in the Middle East. On the other hand, the deadlock in the Middle East peace process has heightened frustrations among countries in the region. Under this setting, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein threatened in March 1990 to use chemical weapons in retaliation should his country be attacked by Israel by nuclear weapons. An extraordinary Arab summit meeting convened in Baghdad in May under the initiative of President Hussein issued a statement strongly denouncing Israel and the United States. These two developments were an expression of frustrations in the Middle East and indicated that Iraq- the largest military power in the region now freed from the Iran-Iraq conflict - started to claim the leadership in Arab.
Therefore, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August may be viewed as a manifestation of President Hussein's inclination toward hegemony. Now that East-West relations are changing dramatically and a new international order toward the 21st century is yet to be redefined, whether the international community can cope with such a situation effectively would be a critical test of its capability to maintain peace and stability in the years to come. (See Chapter II, Section 1, Item 3 for the Middle East peace process, the Lebanon problem, the Iran-Iraq conflict, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, and the Afghanistan problem, and see Chapter II, Section 4 for the West Sahara issue)
Item 2. Situation in Major Middle East Countries
1. Israel
The national unity government of the Likud and Labor in power, since November 1989, collapsed due to differences in the Middle East peace issue following the resignation of the Labor ministers and the passage of a nonconfidence vote in the Cabinet in March 1990. Labor leader Peres who became the first nominee to head the government failed to form a Cabinet. Then, Likud leader Shamir, after political maneuvering, managed to form a coalition in June with right-wing minority parties and religious parties which is considered to take the hardest line of all Israel Cabinets in the Middle East peace issue.
2. Algeria
In Algeria where political reforms toward democratization are under way, local elections were held June 12, 1990, for the first time under the multi-party system since its independence, in accordance with the constitution amended in February 1989. At the elections, Moslem fundamentalists' Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) became the leading party beating the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) which had been the only authorized party of the country since its independence. Under these circumstances, the Chadli Government is continuing efforts for political and economic reforms.
3. Jordan
In November 1989, Jordan introduced principles of democracy in an election for the Chamber of Deputies held for the first time in 22 years. (Members of the Senate are appointed by the King.) In the election, the Islamic forces centering on the Moslem Brotherhood won more than 40% of the seats. Jordan is still gripped by difficult economic conditions.
Regarding Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August 1990, Jordan vowed to comply with U.N. Security Council resolutions. The country however, is finding difficulty in coping with the situation due to its close economic ties with Iraq and a large Palestinian population who are sympathetic to Iraq.
4. Turkey
In October 1989, a presidential election held upon the expiration of the term of President Evren, was won by Prime Minister Ozal, who became the 8th President, and the first civilian President in 30 years; Turkish presidents were always from the military except one in the past presidency. As Prime Minister, Ozal was succeeded by Yildirim Akbulut, Speaker of the Grand National Assembly. Major tasks for the new Government are to control inflation, the greatest source of public discontent and to regain the declining popularity of the ruling Motherland Party. The next general elections are scheduled to be held by 1992.
Turkey strongly denounced Iraq's invasion and annexation of Kuwait and imposed economic sanctions against Iraq in compliance with the U.N. Security Council's resolutions. At the same time, as Turkey maintained strong economic ties with Iraq, the tension in economic relations is causing serious damage to Turkey.
5. Egypt
Although Egypt has been working with economic reforms under the Second Five-Year Plan, it is still facing major economic difficulties including an accumulated external debt amounting to over $40 billion and budget deficits, and no agreement has been reached in negotiations with the IMF on the 2nd standby credit loans.
In its international relations, the country resumed diplomatic relations with Syria in December 1989 and significantly mended relations with Libya, demonstrating that it has been steadily strengthening ties with Arab countries after returning to the Arab League. Also, in the Middle East peace process, Egypt has taken initiatives to arrange a dialogue between Palestinians and Israel.
Regarding Iraq's invasion and annexation of Kuwait, Egypt has strongly denounced it, despite the fact that over 1 million Egyptians are living in Iraq and Kuwait, and has taken a firm stand against Iraq demanding withdrawal of its troops from Kuwait and the restoration of the legitimate Government of Kuwait. Under this policy, Egypt has been making various initiatives including the hosting of the extraordinary Arab summit meeting.
6. Iran
Continuous efforts made to revitalize its wilting economy and end diplomatic isolation since the start of the Rafsanjani Cabinet in August 1989 have not been successful due to a number of stumbling blocks.
President Rafsanjani has been following a pragmatist line emphasizing economic rehabilitation by appointing experienced business leaders as ministers and senior bureaucrats. In January 1990, the First Five Year Economic, Social, and Cultural Development Plan Law was enacted to legally endorse measures including the introduction of foreign investment. Now it is up to the Government to make sure that the law is enforced effectively.
Regarding the relations with the United States, the dispute over the freezing of Iranian assets in the United States which is now before the International Court of Arbitration has taken a turn for settlement. Iran made positive approaches to mend its relations with the U.S. by exercising influence in April 1990 in the release of two American hostages held by a Lebanese radical group. However, these moves by Iran have yet to produce a positive reciprocal reaction on the part of the United States. In consequence, no significant progress bas been made in the improvement of U.S.-Iranian relations.
As for relations with the United Kingdom, Iran still maintains its stand that the order of the late Ayatollah Khomeini to execute the British author of the novel "The Satanic Verses" and the publisher of the book is valid. As a result, no visible progress has been made in the relations of the two countries.
Iran reacted cautiously to the disturbances that broke out in the Republic of Azerbaijan in February 1989, with a view to maintaining good relations with the Soviet Union and with consideration to the Azerbaijan in Iran.
When a major earthquake struck Iran's northwestern part in June 1989, Japan extended emergency aid amounting to over \420 million.
7. Iraq
After a cease-fire in the Iran-Iraq conflict, Iraq drew up an ambitious development plan prioritizing the fostering of types of industries that can earn hard currencies and substitute imports, as well as the improvement of the social infrastructure. However, with huge external debts amounting to an estimated $70 billion to 80 billion together with chronic inflation and shortage of supplies, Iraq's economic policy is restrained severely. Under these circumstances, and partly due to the changes in Eastern Europe, the country contemplates the possibilities of initiating democratization from the top and instituting a permanent constitution as well as preparing laws concering a multi-party system and publications.
In the area of diplomacy, a series of incidents that began with the execution of a U.K. Observer reporter on an espionage charge in March 1990, followed by President Hussein's warning to use chemical weapons against Israel and an alleged smuggling of nuclear detonators, has fueled censorious reactions by the press in the U.S. and Europe. It was under these circumstances that President Hussein hosted an extraordinary Arab summit in Baghdad (May 1990) and tried to secure support of Arab countries for its stand on its relations with Israel and Western countries. And such ambition of President Hussein to gain supremacy in the region appears to underlie Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August, despite the fact that its immediate cause was the disputes on territory and oil.
8. Saudi Arabia
In Saudi Arabia, where the safeguarding of the holy places of Islam is a national policy, a series of incidents occurred in and around the holy city of Mecca, including terrorists' bombing in the city in July 1989 and a tunnel accident which killed more than 1,400 pilgrims in July 1990. These incidents underlined the necessity to further reinforce safety measures at holy places.
In the economic area, Saudi Arabia launched at the end of 1989 the 5th Economic Development 5-Year Plan which focuses on development of human resources.
In the diplomatic area, King Fahd has been actively taking part in efforts to settle the Lebanon problem as a member of the Tripartite Committee of the Arab League and has gained international recognition for achieving a certain result - the adoption of the Lebanese People Reconciliation Charter.
In relations with China, Saudi Arabia historically maintained an anti-communist policy and kept diplomatic relations with Taiwan. However, starting with the purchase of missiles in 1988 and the mutual opening of trade offices, Saudi Arabia had steadily developed ties with the People's Republic of China and took steps to establish diplomatic relations in July 1990. The focus of attention now turns to the relations with the Soviet Union, another communist country with which Saudi Arabia has no diplomatic relations.
When tensions between Iraq and Kuwait was hightened and Iraq concentrated troops close to the border with Kuwait in July 1990, King Fabd addressed himself to mediation between Iraq and Kuwait together with Egyptian President Mubarak and arranged the Iraq-Kuwait meeting in Jeddah on July 31. Then, after the meeting was broken off and Iraq invaded Kuwait, Saudi Arabia requested the United States and other countries to send troops to the country.
9. Yemen
In South Yemen where a sweeping review of its policy began following the breakout of a civil war in January 1986, moves toward democratization, liberalization, and opening were accelerated by perestroika in the Soviet Union, producing a heightened popular trend for unification of North and South Yemen. In November 1989, the leaders of the two countries concluded the so-called Aden Agreement aimed at unification within 1 year and the negotiations were intensified. Then, the move was further accelerated, and the two countries were unified in May 1990 to form the Republic of Yemen. But a 21/2-year transition period has been set for complete unification of administrative organizations, etc. Careful watch is required as to how the new country will cope with a number of economic and political problems.
1. Summary
Japan has been actively promoting friendship and cooperation with Middle Eastern countries in view of their importance to international politics and the world economy as well as their interdependent relations with Japan. (See Chapter II, Section 1, Item 3 for Japan's contributions to the peace restoring activities in the Middle East)
2. Working for Middle East Peace
Japan has been actively involved in the Middle East peace process by conducting political dialogues with the parties concerned. In October 1989, Japan invited PLO leader Yasser Arafat as a Government guest to Japan and expressed its support to the PLO's realistic and moderate line. Then in November, Japan invited Israeli Foreign Minister Moshe Arens as a guest of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and appeals for further efforts in advancing the peace process. In 1990, Japan hosted the First Japan-Israel working level meeting in February and a Japan-PLO meeting in April to deepen political dialogues and interactions with the two parties. At the same time, Japan has provided aid for other countries involved in the Middle East peace issue, namely Egypt, Jordan, and Syria, through cooperation in economic aid and other areas. Also, Japan's peace efforts are extended to assistance for Palestinians through the Japan-Palestine Development Fund at the UNDP and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).
3. Development of Japan's Diplomacy with the Gulf States
Japan depends on the Gulf States for more than 70% of its oil imports, and with an anticipated tightening of supply and demand, importance of these oil-rich countries is increasing. At the same time Japan is one of the major trade partners for the Gulf States and is being counted on to be a source of technology transfer and investment. Japan, with a view to reinforcing interdependent relations with the Gulf States; plans to promote interchange of human resources, economic cooperation centered on technical assistance, and cultural exchange.
Along this line, active exchange has continued between Japan and the Gulf States during 1990, following the visit of Saudi Arabian Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Nazer in January and Iraqi Oil Minister Al-Chalabi in April, Japan received UAE President Zayed as a state guest. In the meantime, the government's technical cooperation study mission visited the Gulf States three times since October 1989.