Chapter II. Major Trends in the International Community and Tasks for Japanese Foreign Policy
Section 1. International Politics and Japan's Position
1. East-West Relations
As referred to in Chapter I, Section 1, the East-West dialogue centering on the United States and the Soviet Union has steadily progressed and expanded since Mikhail Gorbachev came into power in the Soviet Union in March 1985. In the past year, Chancellor Helmut Kohl of the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG), Italian Prime Minister Ciriaco De Mita and French President Francois Mitterrand visited the Soviet Union successively in the second half of 1988. General Secretary Gorbachev visited Britain, the FRG and France after the turn of the year. Between the United States and the Soviet Union, when Gorbachev attended the U.N. General Assembly in December 1988, he held a tripartite conference with incoming President George Bush and outgoing President Ronald Reagan, and it was confirmed that the U.S.-Soviet dialogue would be continued under the new administration of President Bush. Following this confirmation, the first U.S.-Soviet talks at the Foreign Ministers' level after the formation of the new U.S. administration took place in Vienna in March 1989 when U.S. Secretary of State James Baker and Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze attended a Conference on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE). Then in May Baker visited the Soviet Union for the first time. On that occasion, discussion was held on such global issues as the environment, natural disasters, terrorism and narcotics as well as the four categories - arms control and disarmament, regional conflicts, human rights and bilateral relations - which had been taken up before. More recently in July 1989, President Bush visited Poland and Hungary. He was the first U.S. President to visit Poland in 12 years, and Hungary since the end of the War. For his part, Gorbachev delivered a speech at a meeting of the European Council for the first time also in July. Also notable was an exchange of visits between senior military officials and officers (Note). These developments obviously indicate East-West dialogue has progressed to such an extent East-West relations are entering a new phase.
Various factors are supposed to have contributed to bringing about the present East-West relations. But basically, the following two factors may be cited:
First, the nations in the West, which espouse freedom and democracy, have achieved political stability, and economic and social progress in their respective countries, while ensuring their own security by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, and at the same time seeking policy coordination.
Second, reforms, implemented by the Soviet Union and East European nations confronted with economic hardships, have spread from the economic sphere to other wide-ranging fields, including politics and society. These reforms are also influencing the foreign policies of those countries.
As for domestic reforms, the Soviet Union and Poland held parliamentary elections in 1989, partially based on multiple candidacy, and free, secret voting. Moves toward a multi-party system are also seen in Poland and Hungary. The recognition of such political pluralism, so far considered a taboo under the Communist Party's one-party system, may well be termed a daring reform. On the other hand, some East European nations still continue to take a negative attitude toward domestic reform, showing the absence of consensus regarding the problem of reform. (For details, see Chapter 3, Section 6 on the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe) details, see Chapter III, Section 6 on the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe)
The Soviet Union regards a peaceful and stable international environment as necessary for pressing forward with domestic reform. From this standpoint, it is pushing diplomacy based on a "new thinking." General Secretary Gorbachev, in various speeches, expressed such ideas as interdependence, balance of interests, freedom of choice, respect for international law, deideologization, and the "common European house." A unilateral cut of 500,000 troops, announced by Gorbachev in his speech at the U.N. in December 1988, the publication of data on the Soviet Union's defense budget and military strength, and the publication of comparison of the military strengths of the East and the West in Europe are all the expression of the Soviet Union's "new thinking."
For their part, Western nations have positively welcomed the moves toward political reform in the Soviet Union and East European nations as "signs of the same desire as that in the West for greater freedom and democracy" and have expressed "hope for the formation of the basis for increased dialogue and cooperation" with the East (according to the Declaration on East-West Relations issued by the Arch Summit of the seven industrialized democracies and the European Community (EC), held in July 1989). In particular, among West European nations, there is the widespread perception that the moves for reform and new diplomatic developments currently emerging in Eastern Europe should be interpreted as a golden opportunity to achieve greater stability in East-West relations, and that this opportunity should be taken full advantage of with a view to establishing a new relationship. President Bush, in his speech in Texas in May, said that the "containment" policy had served to make the Soviet Union recognize the necessity of "perestroika." He proposed that hereafter, it is necessary to move beyond "containment" and "integrate" the Soviet Union into the community of nations. (For details, see Chapter III, Section 3 on North America) This deserves attention as an indication of a new direction in East-West relations. The declaration on East-West relations, issued at the Arch Summit, also said: "We see good opportunities for the countries of West and East to work together to find just solutions to conflicts around the world, to fight against underdevelopment, to safeguard the resources and the environment and to build a freer and more open world."
The following major developments were witnessed in various aspects of East-West relations in the past year:
(1) Disarmament and Arms Control (for details, see Chapter II, Section 1-4 on Disarmament and Arms Control)
New moves have been seen in the field of arms control and disarmament as well. The Soviet Union has started a cut of 500,000 troops, including part of its forces stationed in Eastern Europe. Moreover, in response to the West's call, it has published more detailed, though not yet complete, data on that country's defense budget and overall troop strength including the forces in the Far East. In some East European nations as well, troop reductions have started. The Warsaw Pact has also published a detailed comparison of military strength with NATO.
The United States and the Soviet Union resumed negotiations on various aspects of arms control and disarmament in June 1989, while negotiations on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) also started in Europe in March 1989.
As regards the Soviet forces in the Far East, which are of immediate interest to Japan, the Soviet Union announced a plan to withdraw 120,000 troops from the Far East, and published data on military strength in the region. The announced troop cut is basically commendable, but its details are unknown, and it is said that troops stationed in Japan's northern territory will not be affected. The published data are also only partial, and many points remain unclear, such as regions covered, military units and types of weapons.
(2) Regional Conflicts
Regional conflicts basically stem from historical, ethnic, religious or social factors peculiar to the respective regions involved. Nevertheless, in many cases, the interests and ulterior motives of big powers, and the East-West power relationship are complexly intertwined in the process of dispute. Some disputes were started by the direct invasion and intervention in third countries by the Soviet Union and its allies in the second half of the 1970s. That is why regional conflicts are looked upon as important in the context of East-West relations. To settle these disputes, the United States, the Soviet Union and Western nations have important roles to play in addition to the efforts of the countries involved and the United Nations.
The problem of Afghanistan was a typical example of regional conflict connected with East-West relations. For this very reason, the pull-out of Soviet troops from Afghanistan contributed to improving the atmosphere of U.S.-Soviet and East-West relations, and also had a favorable impact on other regional conflicts. For instance, there were such moves as an agreement on the Angola-Namibia problem, informal talks in Jakarta on the Cambodian issue, and Vietnam's announcement of a plan to withdraw its troops from Cambodia. However, the United States and the Soviet Union are still wide apart on the Nicaraguan issue.
Talks are likely to be continued on regional conflicts as a major topic in East-West relations. At the same time, it will become increasingly important, although far from easy, to find fundamental solutions to problems peculiar to and inherent in the respective regional conflicts.
(3) Human Rights
After World War II, socialist regimes were formed in East European nations, with the division of Europe and Germany into the East and the West, giving rise to various problems, such as displaced families, from a humanitarian point of view. The reason the human rights issue is given importance in the context of East-West relations is that basically, they are related to basic values shared by Western nations, such as freedom, democracy and respect for basic human rights. Already the final document issued at the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) in 1975 - that is, the so-called Helsinki Declaration - called for respecting human rights and basic freedom, and contained detailed provisions concerning the exchange of people and information. The Declaration on Human Rights, issued at the Arch Summit, said that "human rights are a matter of legitimate international concern." The handling of human rights in the nations of the East can no longer be ignored simply as internal affairs.
Among the recent moves related to the problem of human rights are a deliberation on the revision of the criminal code, release of political prisoners, increased emigration of Soviet Jews, acceptance of the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice regarding some international conventions related to human rights, and cessation of radio jamming, all by the Soviet Union, and the removal of barbed-wire fences along the border between Austria and Hungary.
At the CSCE Vienna Follow-up Conference, which ended in January 1989, a surveillance mechanism for guaranteeing human rights was created for a mutual watch on the conditions of human rights in each other's countries across national borders. The first European conference on human rights was held in Paris (May 30-June 23) to assess the surveillance mechanism and study the condition of human rights, and active discussion took place on violations of human rights in Romania, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, etc. The second conference is to be held in Copenhagen in June 1990, and the third in Moscow in September 1991.
Nevertheless, there are many things yet to be done by countries in the East for settlement of the human rights problem, such as a freer interflow and outflow of people and information, removal of the Berlin Wall, prevention of the violation of human rights by judicial authorities, and the actual establishment of a law-governed system accompanied by the independence of the jurisdiction.
(4) Japan's Perception of the Soviet Union, and Japan-Soviet Relations
The Gorbachev regime entered its fifth year in March 1989. During these years, it sought to improve the economic structure and the law on state enterprises and other laws, and pushed the policy of "glasnost" (openness) and democratization in an effort to revitalize the Soviet economy. However, it is anything but easy to overcome the negative legacy, taken over by the Gorbachev regime, such as the conservatism of the Communist Party and the government's bureaucracy preserved under the centralized system of planned economy for the past 70 years. Perestroika is now confronted with major problems. General Secretary Gorbachev said the economy, society and politics presently face increasingly acute problems, such as the consumer goods market national finances, socialism and racial relations.
Especially in the economic field, shortages of foods and consumer goods have deteriorated causing the people's life to worsen. The fiscal deficit has reached about 100 billion rubles (equivalent to about 20 percent of the budget). As a result, the Soviet Government has come up with various policies, such as top priority to consumer goods production, a 14 percent cut in the military budget and a partial switch of the military industry to production of consumer goods. However, there are a host of knotty problems, such as a review of prices, monetary policy and the state subsidy system. Prospects are thus far from bright. (See Chapter III, Section 6-1-(1) (c) on the Trends of the Soviet Economy)
General Secretary Gorbachev, in a bid to push economic reform, carried out a series of reform measures vigorously in the political and social fields after the 19th party congress in June 1988. In December, the Soviet Constitution was amended, centering on the separation of authority between the party and the state apparatus, the strengthening of the powers of the Soviet (parliament) and the revision of the election system. In March 1989, an election for the Congress of People's Deputies was held on the basis of multiple candidacy, and free and secret voting for the first time in Soviet history. Debate at the first session of the congress, held in May, was extensively reported, while nominations of many Cabinet ministers were not approved at a meeting of the Supreme Soviet in June. These were unprecedented developments in the Soviet Union. Such positive moves in the political and social fields are welcome to the Western side. General Secretary Gorbachev assumed the chairmanship of the Supreme Soviet and strengthened his hand through personnel reshuffles. He is expected to press foward with perestroika with the backing of the people's voice as expressed through the Supreme Soviet. (See Chapter III, Section 6-1 (1) (a) on Developments in Soviet Internal Politics)
On the other hand, another recent characteristic is that the progress of openness and democratization has generated a diversity of views and that dissastisfaction and demands have mounted further among the people as instanced by movements for ethnic independence and workers' strikes. In particular, ethnic problems may be termed a serious issue that can affect the very foundation of the Soviet Union.
It is true that the positive change in the Soviet Union and its diplomacy based on the so-called "new thinking" have contributed to progress in U.S.-Soviet and East-West relations. East-West relations constitute the most important element for world peace and stability. In this sense, the advancement of East-West dialogue and exchange should be welcomed. Desirable changes occurring in the Soviet Union and some East European nations should be fairly and rightfully assessed. Nonetheless, if East-West relations are to truly stabilize on the basis of mutual trust, it is important that the ongoing positive changes will take firm root in the Soviet Union's domestic and foreign policies as a whole. We should be cautious not to make judgments merely on the basis of the Soviet Union's mere expression of its intentions. At the same time, we should not forget that basic differences and factors of conflict still exist between the East and the West. This is a shared perception on the Soviet Union among the Western nations, as indicated by a declaration on East-West relations issued at the Arch Summit. The declaration called upon the Soviet Union to "translate its new policies and pronouncements into further concrete action at home and abroad" and stressed the importance of maintaining a strategy of deterrence.
With progress in East-West relations, Japan's relations with the Soviet Union are getting increasingly significant. It is becoming more and more important to improve Japan-Soviet relations from a viewpoint of building truly stable East-West relations, and ensuring peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific area. To date, Japan has been making great efforts to improve its relations with the Soviet Union under a basic policy of placing the bilateral relations on a truly stable foundation through the conclusion of a peace treaty, based on the settlement of the northern territorial issue. It is important for Japan to encourage the Soviet Union to positively and fully reflect its "new thinking" in its relations with Japan, and continue maximum possible efforts to that end. (For particulars on Japan-Soviet relations, see Chapter III, Section 6 on the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe)
2. Situation in Asia and the Pacific
(1) Economic Development and International Political Environment in the Asia-Pacific Region (Note)
Growing trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific region have steadily enhanced interdependence in the region boosting its weight in the world economy more than ever. The Asian NIEs and other countries and areas in the region have achieved amazing economic growth on the basis of market economy, drawing world attention as a vigorous region. The spectacular economic development of the Asian NIEs and ASEAN countries is contributing to the political stability of the region as a factor conducive to the promotion of democracy.
Having established policy of attaching importance to the Asia-Pacific region, the United States has been endeavoring to strengthen its relations with Japan and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region. This stance of the United States, together with its solid relations with Japan, is contributing greatly to the stability of the region.
On the Korean Peninsula although the military and political confrontation between North and South, basically remains unchanged, the ROK has promoted the so-called "Nordpolitik" toward forging relationship with the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, China, and other socialist countries. It has taken a flexible and positive approach in dialogue with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea). In contrast to the ROK, which has shown progress in democratization against the background of economic growth, however, North Korea has not yet taken a flexible attitude to open up the country and it still remains conspicuously isolated.
In Southeast Asia, the Cambodian factions and the countries involved in the Cambodian problem have begun to step up their efforts particularly at the beginning of 1989, presenting the possibility of an early political solution of the problem. Under the Aquino government, the Philippines is moving toward stability on the whole, although it has uncertain factors, such as the communist forces in its territory.
China and the Soviet Union need a stable international environment in order to carry on their economic reforms. General Secretary Gorbachev of the Soviet Union, paid an official visit to China in May 1989. The Russo-Chinese summit then normalized relations between the two countries as well as between their parties. Not only with the Soviet Union but also with India, Indonesia, and other neighboring countries has China been exerting efforts to improve relations. Yet, the armed suppression by the Chinese leaders of the democratization movements of students and citizens drew stern criticisms from many countries. The Soviet Union, which previously maintained a critical attitude toward Asia-Pacific cooperation, has shown an increasing interest in the Asia-Pacific region for its economic dynamism as was shown in the Vladivostok speech (July 1986) and Krasnoyarsk speech (September 1988) by General Secretary Gorbachev.
(2) Characteristics of the Economic Growth of the Asian NIEs and ASEAN Countries
The Asian NIEs have achieved a high rate of economic growth by export-led economic management since the 1960s. Although their economic growth dulled for a time in the early 1980s, the currency adjustment among the advanced countries following the 1985 Plaza Accord, and the subsequent lowering of interest rates and fall of oil prices helped the NIEs to regain high economic growth through export-expansion. As the Asian NIEs registered huge trade surpluses with the United States, demand rose in the U.S. and elsewhere that the NIEs upvalue their currencies and share greater international responsibilities. Under such circumstances, the Asian NIEs and the OECD countries held an informal seminar in January 1989, which drew attention as an attempt to search for a new relationship of cooperation between the NIEs and the advanced countries. Despite the various kinds of vulnerabilities within, the Asian NIEs have achieved rapid economic expansion on their own efforts, contributing to the invigoration of the world economy. Their achievement is highly rated by the advanced countries. It is expected, however, that the Asian NIEs will play a role commensurate with their level of economic development in international economic management.
The Asian NIEs and ASEAN countries have had a characteristic in trade structure of importing capital goods and intermediate products from Japan and exporting manufactured products to the United States. But, recently, Japan has significantly increased imports of manufactured product from the Asian NIEs and ASEAN countries. This change followed the industrial restructuring and expansion of domestic demand in Japan incidental to the sharp rise of the yen. Direct investments from Japan have risen rapidly. And as Japanese production bases come into full operation in these areas, exports to Japan are expected to further increase. Japan and the Asian NIEs and ASEAN countries are now linked closely through interdependence accompanying horizontal division of labor. The Asian NIEs are moving their labor-intensive industries to ASEAN countries due to soaring wages at home and the upvaluation of their currencies. This has strengthened economic relations between the two groups of Asian countries. China, Asian NIEs, and ASEAN countries have expanded foreign trade by mutually providing export markets. Australia and New Zealand are increasing their trade with the Asian NIEs and ASEAN countries in the face of the diminishing weight of trade with the EC countries.
(3) Asia-Pacific Cooperation
The Asia-Pacific region brimming with economic vitality is expected to play a locomotive role for the world toward the 21st century. Accordingly the possibility of more extensive Asia-Pacific cooperation is being discussed in earnest. There are two fora which have pioneered Asia-Pacific cooperation. One is the Pacific Basin Economic Council (PBEC), an international forum of industrialists and financiers established in 1967. The other is the Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference (PECC), a unique tripartite organization integrating the respective strengths of business and industry, government, academic and other intellectual circles that was set up in 1980. Reflecting the growing interest in Asia-Pacific cooperation, views have been expressed that an inter-governmental forum should beset up to promote Asia-Pacific cooperation on a governmental basis. In the background is a growing awareness of the importance of developing the economically dynamic Asia-Pacific region as a free area open to the other parts of the world. This is due to the fact that Pacific trade has been exceeding Atlantic trade since 1985 (see the attached table), the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement was signed, and EC integration is to be promoted toward 1992. Australian Prime Minister Hawke proposed during his visit to the Republic of Korea in January 1989 to create an inter-governmental organ for Asia-Pacific cooperation. U.S. Secretary of State Baker in his speech delivered in New York in June 1989 pointed out the need of a new mechanism for multinational cooperation. In the ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference held in Brunei in July 1989, the participating countries expressed interest in Asia-Pacific cooperation.
Changes in Pacific Trade and Atlantic Trade
Japan, as one of the countries in the Asia-Pacific region, should continue to make positive contributions to Asia-Pacific cooperation for the stability and development of the region in the future. However, the countries in the Asia-Pacific region still differ widely in the stages of economic development. They are also marked by cultural and social diversity. Prime Minister Takeshita visited ASEAN countries in May 1989. He outlined the following three principles as the basic policy of Japan toward Asia-Pacific cooperation in his policy speech in Jakarta: (1) To respect the views of the ASEAN countries, (2) to maintain and strengthen the free trade system open to the world, and (3) to promote multi-faceted and steady cooperation. The Japanese policy was highly appreciated by ASEAN and other countries in the region. To further Asia-Pacific cooperation it will be necessary, first of all, that the countries in the region carry on dialogue and cooperation on a steady basis over a wide range of fields.
3. Sino-Soviet Relations
During the past year, significant progress was made toward normalization of relations between China and the Soviet Union. General Secretary Gorbachev paid an official visit to China from May 15 to 18, 1989, and met with Chairman of the Central Military Commission Deng Xiaoping, and other leaders. This was the first Sino-Soviet summit in thirty years. As a result, the joint communique, which serves as the basic document for future relations between the two countries, was issued. Thus, the relations between the two countries, including party relations, were normalized.
(1) Normalization Process
The rise of General Secretary Gorbachev to the Soviet leadership carries an important meaning in the normalization of Sino-Soviet relations. Yet the process leading to the normalization can be traced back to ten years ago.
China made an announcement to the Soviet Union in April 1979 that it would terminate the Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, and instead proposed to start talks for rapprochement. This proposal led to Sino-Soviet negotiations in October, but they were later suspended after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Later in 1982, General Secretary Brezhnev expressed that the Soviets were ready to improve relations with China (in his Tashkent speech in March). On the Chinese side, General Secretary Hu Yaobang declared "independent foreign policy" in the 12th party congress in September of that year, stating that Sino-Soviet relations could be normalized if the Soviet Union removed "three obstacles" (Note). In October, both sides started deputy foreign ministerial consultations, which were periodically held in the subsequent years. It was about that time that relations between the two countries took a turn for rapid improvement in the fields of business and trade. Thus, the Chinese and the Soviets began moving toward rapprochement, but no progress was seen in their political relations. Removal of the "three obstacles" had to wait for Mr. Gorbachev to come to power as General Secretary in 1985.
General Secretary Gorbachev expressed his willingness, more eagerly than the previous Soviet leaders, of improving relations with China in his Vladivostok speech in July 1986. Since delivery of this speech, developments were observed toward Sino-Soviet rapprochement. Sino-Soviet border talks were resumed in 1987 for the first time in nine years, and one Soviet troop division withdrew from Mongolia. The U.S.-Soviet INF Treaty, which was agreed upon in 1987 might have helped reduce tensions along Sino-Soviet borders, for elimination of Soviet INF in its Asian part was also within the treaty. The Afghanistan problem, as "an obstacle," was solved through Soviet withdrawal, and a Sino-Soviet deputy ministerial consultation on Cambodia was held in 1988. Thus, the Chinese and the Soviets proceeded to surmount the "three obstacles." Premier Li Peng told visiting Prime Minister Takeshita in August 1988 that overall normalization of relations between China and the Soviet Union was now on the agenda. Later in September 1988, Chinese and Soviet Foreign Ministers met in the United Nations, followed by the exchange of visits by the Foreign Ministers of both countries in December 1988 and February 1989. As a result, both sides reached agreement on a Sino-Soviet summit.
(2) Outline of the Summit Meeting
The major issues at the Sino-Soviet summit meeting were future bilateral relations and the Cambodian problem.
Regarding the basic principles of future Sino-Soviet relations, all of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence (Note) claimed by the Chinese as the basis of their relationship was accepted in the Sino-Soviet joint communique. The communique also licitly stated that the normalization of relations would not infringe upon the interests of third countries, that the Chinese side would firmly abide by the principled position of not forming alliances with any country, and that neither of the two countries would seek hegemony. Thus, China and the Soviet Union declared their intentions to establish such friendly and normal relations as would be seen in good neighboring countries. Party-to-party relations were also normalized and both parties would pursue contacts and exchanges respecting the principle of independence and total equality.
No significant progress was seen on the border disputes and on the reduction of troops along the borders. It was only agreed that the border talks at deputy ministerial level would be elevated to level of Foreign Ministers if necessary in the future. As for the border forces, measures would be taken to reduce them to a minimum in line with normal good neighborly relations between the two countries.
On the Cambodian problem, a nine-item announcement had been issued by both countries at the end of Foreign Minister Shevardnadze's visit to China in February 1989, which turned out that differences remained between the two countries mainly on the internal aspect of the problem. The Sino-Soviet disagreement on this point was not dissolved even in the summit meeting with the result that the joint communique stated the respective positions of the two countries as in the case of the nine-item announcement.
During his stay in Beijing, General Secretary Gorbachev delivered a speech in the Great Hall of the People on Sino-Soviet relations and the Soviet policy for Asia and the Pacific. In that speech Gorbachev announced some concrete plan for arms reduction in the Soviet Far Eastern area, which was a part of his plan previously stated for Soviet unilateral arms reduction in two years. Such an announcement should be positively estimated but we still need to keep a close watch on how the Soviet plan will be implemented in the two years.
(3) Background of Normalization
China and the Soviet Union normalized ties, although the "three obstacles" claimed by the Chinese as prerequisite for it, particularly the Cambodian problem, were not fully surmounted even in the summit meeting. One of the major factors that prompted the two countries to realize rapprochement was the recent amelioration of the international environment attributable largely to a great progress in dialogues between the United States and the Soviet Union. As another factor, it should be pointed out that both China and the Soviet Union gave top priority to reform their economies, and therefore they needed a peaceful international environment. Apparently the two countries judged it would not be desirable to continue the confrontation under such circumstances.
The other important factor is that the issue of ideology, which was once one of the major contentions between China and the Soviet Union, lost previous importance while China pushed ahead with reform and its open-door policy. With regard to this point, the Soviet Union stated that it was ready to establish relations with China on the basis of the principle of peaceful coexistence, recognizing China as a socialist state. Given the fact that the Soviet Union had traditionally applied the principle of peaceful coexistence only in relationship to non-socialist countries, China must have noted this change of the Soviets as an important indication of change in the general Soviet attitude toward China.
(4) Prospects of Future Sino-Soviet Relations
Chinese Vice Premier Tian Jiyun visited the Soviet Union in July 1989 to attend the 4th meeting of the Sino-Soviet Committee on Cooperation in Economy, Trade, Science and Technology. This was the first high-level contact between the two countries after the normalization of ties. China and the Soviet Union will probably develop their relations not only in a sphere of commerce and trade but to a certain extent also in the political field. However, the domestic situations of the two countries and the international environment surrounding them are basically different from those in the 1950s. Moreover, differences between the two countries have not been overcome completely. Considering these points, it seems unlikely that the two countries will go back an alliance as in the past. In that sense, the normalization of Sino-Soviet relations will not alter the basic framework of international politics in Asia. Basically Japan appreciates the normalization of relations between the two socialist powers, which once did not hesitate in skirmishes along their borders.
At the same time, there were some new developments along with the normalization such as; Indian Prime Minister Gandhi's visit to China in December 1988 as the first such visit in thirty-four years; agreement to start talks for normalizing diplomatic relations between Indonesia and China in February 1989; the first visit of the Mongolian Foreign Minister to China in March 1989; and agreement between the Philippines and the Soviet Union in July 1989 on President Aquino's visit to the Soviet Union. Vietnam and North Korea, both of which used to take advantage of the Sino-Soviet confrontation, will likely be compelled to readjust their foreign policy.
The pro-democracy movement in China gained momentum during General Secretary Gorbachev's stay in Beijing. In June, they were subdued by armed forces with the result that the internal domestic developments in China produced certain effects on its external relations, particularly with the Western countries. This situation is unlikely to alter the quality of Sino-Soviet relations immediately, but the future course of the relations deserves a close watch.
Japan expects that the Sino-Soviet relationship will develop in the direction of contributing to the peace and stability of Asia.
4. Disarmament and Arms Control
(1) Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START) and Defense and Space Talks (D&S)
The basic agreement on 50 percent reduction of the U.S. and Soviet strategic nuclear arms had been reached since the 1985 Geneva summit. The subsequent START negotiations, however, failed to resolve various remaining issues (see the attached table) and, despite the intensified efforts after the conclusion of the INF Treaty, the talks had to be adjourned in November 1988.
Following the Bush administration's strategic review of the overall U. S. policy on the Soviet Union, which had been pursued in a careful and comprehensive manner since its inauguration, the resumption of the START talks was agreed at the May 1989 Moscow ministerial meeting, and a new round (11th since the Reagan administration) started in June in Geneva. Although the U.S. actively submitted a new proposal on the questions of verification at the outset, there has been little progress in the principal issues in the START talks, suggesting a still uneasy path in future negotiations.
1. Agreed limits
(1) Number of strategic nuclear delivery vehicles: 1,600 Number of warheads: 6,000 (excluding SLCMs)
(2) Aggregate number of ICBM and SLBM warheads: 4,900
(3) Heavy ICBM 154 vehicles and 1,540 warheads
2. Remaining issues
(1) Linkage with SDI (Strategic Defense Initiative)
(2) Handling of SLCMs
(3) Handling of mobile ICBMs
(4) ALCM (range and counting rule)
(5) Verification system
Parallel talks on Defense and Space were also resumed in June 1989, although there still remains a wide divergence of opinion between the two sides on such issues as the activities to be allowed under the ABM Treaty.
(2) INF Treaty
The INF Treaty was signed at the U.S.-Soviet summit meeting held in Washington in December 1987, and went into effect upon exchange of ratification instruments at the Moscow summit meeting held in June 1988. The treaty is being implemented smoothly by the two sides.
(3) Negotiations on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE)
The conventional balance in Europe has been overwhelmingly in favor of the Warsaw Pact (WP) forces. The long process of the MBFR talks since 1973 did not bring any concrete results to redress that imbalance. Under these circumstances, the NATO countries decided to start new negotiations covering a much wider area stretching from the Atlantic to the Urals and aiming at eliminating such disparities in conventional forces and the capability for launching surprise attacks and for initiating large-scale offensive action. From February 1987, the mandate for the new talks had been negotiated between the two blocs under the framework of the CSCE Vienna Follow-Up Conference (See Chapter III, Section 3 on Western Europe). As a result, the agreement was reached in January 1989, and since March the new CFE negotiations have commenced in Vienna (MBFR had been terminated accordingly).
The NATO side has been actively submitting various proposals which demand a radical reduction of the WP Tanks, Artillery Pieces and Armored Troop Carriers. At the May 1989 NATO summit, President Bush put forward a bold proposal calling for conclusion of the CFE talks in six months to one year and completion of reduction by 1992-93. At the same time, the reduction of aircraft and troops demanded by the WP at the outset has been partially accepted by the NATO side.
Although the WP still refuses to admit its overwhelming superiority in conventional forces, it has accepted the principle of asymmetrical reduction ("the more one side possesses, the more it should reduce") and the necessity to introduce a common ceiling for both sides. Also, the WP has been basically conforming to the framework of agreements put forward by NATO. However, the Soviet Union has repeatedly attempted to take up issues such as the short-range nuclear forces (SNF) or naval forces, although these are explicitly excluded from the CFE by its agreed mandate. In fact, there had been a need to accommodate various positions among the NATO members concerning the SNF issue because of the strong advocacy for an early start of the SNF reduction talks in the Federal Republic of Germany. The May 1989 NATO summit succeeded in achieving a united position which gives the first priority to the conclusion and implementation of the CFE agreement.
The negotiations on Confidence- and Security-Building Measures, in which 35 countries (23 CFE participants and 12 non-aligned and neutral countries) participate, has also been going since March 1989, in Vienna.
(4) Chemical Weapons
The use of chemical weapons in the Iran-Iraq conflict prompted world public opinion to demand a comprehensive ban on them. Greater expectations have come to be placed on the negotiations on a comprehensive chemical weapons ban convention which had been persistently conducted in the Geneva Conference on Disarmament since 1969. It was in this context that President Reagan proposed an international conference to reaffirm the 1925 Geneva Protocol which banned the use of chemical weapons in September 1988, in his address to the United Nations. This proposal had been taken on by the Government of France which hosted, as a depository state of the Geneva Protocol, the Paris Conference on Prohibition of Chemical Weapons in January 1989. A total of 149 countries participated in it and Foreign Minister Uno delivered a speech that contributed to setting a framework for the discussion of the conference. After five days' discussions, the Paris Conference reaffirmed the prohibition of the use of chemical weapons and adopted a final declaration which called for intensified efforts in the negotiations on a comprehensive ban convention at the Conference on Disarmament, thus ending in a great success. Accordingly, the negotiations in Geneva are now conducted more vigorously than ever before.
(5) Nuclear Non-Proliferation
The 4th Review Conference for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to be held in 1990 will be the final review conference to be held prior to a 1995 conference which will decide whether to maintain the NPT system. Therefore, its success is vitally important
5. Global Environmental Problem
The existence of life on Earth depends on a delicately balanced ecosystem. Mankind's prosperity depends on clean air, clean water, fertile land and reproducible life. In recent years, however, human activities have expanded so much as to erode the ecosystem of the earth. It is reported that, if no remedial steps were taken irreversible damage would be inflicted on the ecosystem, affecting the very existence of future generations.
The destruction of the ozone layer, global warming by carbon dioxide and other greenhouse effect gases, acid rain, destruction of tropical forests, desertification and pollution of the seas on a global scale can produce extremely serious effects on the ecosystem of the earth. Because of its gravity, the environmental problem has come to be internationally recognized as one of the most important problems that must be solved by concerted efforts of all mankind. The environmental issue was taken up as a priority at a recent United Nations General Assembly meeting, summits of industrialized democracies, and other international and lateral meetings. These indicate that all countries regard the global environmental problem as a matter of great importance.
For example, at the Joint Planning and Coordination Committee which met in May 1989 under the Japan-U.S. Environmental Cooperation Agreement (signed in August 1975), views were exchanged particularly on the global environmental problems. At the Ministerial Meeting of the International Energy Agency (IEA) held in May 1989, the talks focused on the energy and environmental problems involving global warming. It ended in an agreement that the member countries take energy measures aimed at the solution of the environmental problem and extend cooperation with the developing countries. The communique issued by the Ministerial Meeting of the OECD held in June confirmed the necessity of more systematic and effective integration of environmental and economic policies.
In response to these international moves, the Arch Summit held in July 1989 expressed serious concern about the global environmental problem. In fact, one-third of its Economic Declaration was devoted to the problem. The Declaration presented a basic policy on the environmental problem pointing out the need for global response to it, and the importance of scientific observations and of supporting the self-help efforts of the developing countries. It also advanced concrete approaches in addressing, global warming depletion of the ozone layer, protection of tropical forests, and other individual problems.
(2) Characteristics of the Environmental Problem
Environmental problems exist in both developed and developing countries in the form of nature destruction, air pollution and water pollution. The one which has recently attracted growing concern is environmental pollution of a global scale, whose characteristics, in addition to those of the conventional problems are as follows:
(a) A country which produces pollutants is not always the same as the one which is affected by the pollutants. Pollutants cause damage beyond national borders, and the damage spreads over an extensive area.
(b) Damage is caused through a gradual, complex process over a long period of time, and it may be difficult to scientifically prove cause-and-effect relations. Because it may be too late to take measures after damage is caused, preventive measures must be included in studying to deal with the damage.
(c) It is necessary for all the world to cooperate in solving the problem, and for this purpose it is essential to work out a framework of international cooperation.
(3) International Trends
Various concrete measures have been studied regarding the global environmental problem that has these characteristics, and have been implemented. The main ones are as follows:
(a) Protection of the Ozone Layer
In compliance with the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer - (effective since September 1988) and the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (effective since January 1989), restrictions on the use of some chlorofluorocarbons was started on July 1, 1989. At the first meeting of the parties to the Vienna Convention and the Montreal Protocol held in May 1989 in Helsinki participating Governments and the European Communty adopted the Helsinki Declaration in which they agreed to phase out the production and the consumption of CFCs contolled by the Montreal Protocol before the year 2000 and henceforth reinforce restrictions on the use of other ozone depleting substances. Also in Japan, the Asia-Pacific Region Seminar on the Protection of the Ozone Layer was convened from May 31 to June 2, 1989.
(b) Problem of Global Warming (Climatic Changes)
To deal with the global warming problem, an Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) was set up in November 1988 by the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) and the World's Meteorological Organization (WMO). The IPCC was assigned to collect information on meteorological changes, evaluate their effects, work out measures to deal with them, and study all other aspects of the problem and present a report on its findings to the Second World Weather Conference to be held in 1990. The 15th Session of the Government Council of the UNEP held in May 1989 adopted a decision recommending to start, soon after preparing the above report, to exchange views on a draft treaty on climate change.
At the environmental summit meeting held by the French and other Prime Ministers in The Hague in March 1989, a Hague Declaration was issued calling for a new and more effective approach to deal with the problem of global warming.
(c) Protection of Tropical Forests
The United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) already worked out a comprehensive Tropical Forest Action Plan (TFAP) at the 7th FAO Tropical Forest Development Committee meeting held in 1985. If a more concrete plan is prepared in the future, it will be a guideline for cooperation among countries and international organizations.
The International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO) based in Yokohama was set up three years ago with extensive aims relating not only to tropical timber trade but also to the protection and development of tropical forests including the standpoint of preserving ecology. Now that its activities are well on the way, much expectation is placed on its future operations.
(d) Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes
Under the initiative of the UNEP, the Basel Treaty Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and Their Disposal which provides for a notification system in case of transboundary movement of wastes was signed in March 1989.
(e) Future Trends
A United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (tentative designation) is planned for 1992 to review the environmental circumstances over the twenty years since the holding of the United Nations conference on the Human Environment (in 1972) and set forth the problems that the international communities must deal with in the future and solutions thereto. Various discussions are expected to be carried out actively regarding the 1992 conference.
Global Environmental Problems in Brief
(1) Depletion of the ozone layer
Increased UV-B radiation, resulting from the ozone layer depletion caused by CFCs and other ozone-depleting substances released into the atmosphere, can induce negative effects on the ecosystem and the human health such as skin cancer.
(2) Global warming
The buildup of carbon dioxide, CFCs, methane and other "greenhouse effect" gases is feared to trigger the global warming. Should the trend be allowed to continue unchecked, the average global temperature is estimated to rise by 1.5 to 4.5 degrees C. and the sea level to rise 20 to 140 centimeters by the year 2030 (estimation by Villach Conference). The global warming is generating concern about climate changes as well as detrimental effects on agricultural crops, the ecosystem, etc.
(3) Acid rain
As a consequence of oxides of sulfur and nitrogen emitted chiefly through the burning of fossil fuels, the rainfall of strong acidity has been detected in Europe and North America. Acid rain is already causing damage to forests and lakes.
(4) Diminishing tropical forests
Tropical forests measuring 11.3 million hectares (about one half the area of Honshu) are disappearing every year due to the slash-and-burn method of agriculture which shifts its places, clearing of forests to develop farmland, unrestrained cattle ranching and felling trees for firewood and timber products. The diminishing forests degrades the livelihood base of developing countries and wildlife habitats and at the same time it is causing climate changes and the soil drainout.
Unrestrained cattle ranching and felling of trees are linked to desertification occurring in various parts of the world. Some 6 million hectares of land (equivalent to the area of Shikoku and Kyushu combined) is lost every year through desertification. It is posing threats to the livelihood of the neighboring populations as it causes shortage of woodfuels and adversely affects agricultural crops. Effects on the climate are also being feared.
(6) Diminishing wildlife species
Due to the destruction of their habitats, the number of wildlife species are estimated to decline to 500,000 to one million (down by 15 to 20 percent) by the year 2000.
(7) Sea pollution
There is concern over the spread of sea pollution around the world caused by oil, buoyant wastes, hazardous chemicals, etc.
(8) Transboundary movements of hazardous wastes
There are some industrialized countries improperly exporting harmful wastes to developing countries thereby causing environmental problems.
(9) Pollution problems in developing countries
Pollution problems are erupting in developing countries as well due to their industrialization and population concentration in urban areas. International cooperation is being sought for solution to the problems.
6. Problem of International Terrorism
(1) International Terrorism and Japan's Position
(a) The World is still beset by unabated international terrorism, posing a serious problem to world peace and democracy. Japan and other countries regard international terrorism as a grave problem of international politics, which has often been taken up in the United Nations meetings and the summit meetings of the seven industrialized countries.
International terrorism is no longer a problem foreign to the Japanese people. With the rapid increase in the numbers of Japanese people touring overseas and Japanese companies operating abroad, there is a growing possibility of Japanese people getting entangled in incidents of international terrorism. Because of greater exposure of Japanese people and companies abroad, the fears of their becoming direct targets of terrorism has gradually been increasing.
(b) In September 1977, a Japan Air Lines plane was hijacked (Dacca Incident) by terrorists, who made horrendous demands against the Japanese government taking the Japanese as hostages. There has not been a terrorist incident of the kind involving Japanese since then. Should a similar incident occur, maximum efforts should of course be exerted toward the safe rescue of the hostages. But it is also necessary to deal with the problem with resoluteness on the basis of the principle of " making no concessions to terrorists" confirmed at a series of the summit meetings among seven countries so that law and order may be maintained and that recurrence of terrorist incidents may be prevented.
In order that the Japanese government live up to this basic position the understanding and cooperation of the Japanese people is essential.
(2) Recent Trends of International Terrorism
(a) Incidents of international terrorism continue in many parts of the world. Bombing of aircraft killing a large number of people has become a serious problem particularly in recent times. In December 1988, a Pan American airliner was bombed in midair, victimizing 270 innocent people, including one Japanese. It is now an urgent task to find ways to prevent such incidents.
(b) Incidents of terrorism overtly sponsored by a state had frequently occurred till about 1986, but have tended to decrease in the face of growing international cooperation in the prevention of terrorism. Yet, we must still be on alert against such incidents.
(c) In February 1989, Iran's spiritual leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini called for the assassination of the author and those concerned with the publication of a novel " The Satanic Verses" on the ground that the book desecrates Islam. In May, Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Rafsanjani called for terrorism against the British, Americans and French. This triggered international fears that Iran condones terrorism.
(3) Moves of the Japanese Red Army
No acts of terrorism by the Japanese Red Army have occurred since August 1988, but their moves must still be watched with caution as it has threatened, though implicitly, to retaliate against the arrest of its members.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is gathering information on activities of the Japanese Red Army through the Japanese Embassies and Consulates overseas, and is taking other necessary steps.
(4) Developments in International Cooperation Against Terrorism
(a) Bilateral and multilateral cooperation is being actively enhanced in dealing with terrorism. Japan and several other countries arrested terrorists and brought them to justice under international cooperation arrangements, contributing to preventing international terrorism.
(b) Here are actual instances of international cooperation in recent times.
(i) Before and during the Seoul Olympics held from September to October 1988, Japan and the Republic of Korea exchanged information through close contacts to prevent terrorist incidents.
(ii) In connection with the bombing incident involving a Pan American airliner in December 1988, a special meeting was held in January 1989 attended by specialists from the Summit participating countries. Convened at the instance of President Mitterrand of the Summit hosting country, the meeting exchanged information on the incident. Also the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has begun studying ways of preventing a similar incident. In February, the ICAO held an extraordinary meeting of its board attended by cabinet ministers to discuss the bombing and adopted a resolution embracing measures for preventing the recurrence of such an incident. In June, the United Nations Security Council adopted a resolution (Resolution 635), by a unanimous decision, concerning the detection of plastic explosives etc. It then urged the ICAO and other international organizations to work for the prevention of terrorism.
(iii) On the occasion of the Funeral Ceremony of Emperor Showa held in February 1989, Japan did its best to exercise protocol for and ensuring protection of the representatives offering condolences from countries around the world. And in preparation of the ceremony, Japan requested the countries concerned for cooperation in preventing terrorism by the Japanese Red Army and others, and exchanged information on terrorist moves.
(iv) The Arch Summit held in July 1989 issued a "Declaration on Terrorism," reconfirming the resolute stand to fight against terrorism and emphasizing the necessity of measures to prevent the recurrence of terrorism against aircraft.
7. United Nations Activities
Since it was established in 1945, the United Nations has expanded its activities to the areas of peace-keeping, arms reduction, the North-South problem, social and human rights issues, and has contributed to the maintenance of world peace and the welfare of mankind as a universal international organization. However, its inability in the area of peace-keeping and its stagnation in the area of economic and social activities were pointed out.
In recent times, however, the efforts toward settlement of regional conflicts, by the United Nations, have made successful achievements such as the signing of the Geneva Accord on Afghanistan, the cease-fire in the Iran-Iraq conflict, and the solution of the Angola-Namibia problem, indicating revitalization of peace-keeping activities by the United Nations.
Apart from the area of peace-keeping, the role of the United Nations is becoming more important in combatting global issues, such as environment.
Among leading member states, too, there is also a growing trend toward international cooperation pivoted on the United Nations. For example, the United States has turned to actively meet with its assessed contributions to the United Nations including those in arrears. The Soviet Union has indicated active participation in the United Nations because of the importance it attaches to the role of the United Nations. As a result, the atmosphere in the United Nations is changing from one of confrontation to one of dialogue. A significant development in recent times is that the United Nations is being revitalized with growing expectations and high appreciation by various member states. However, the efforts led by the United Nations to resolve regional conflicts, such as the Afghan problem and the Iran-Iraq conflict, have not yet come to a final settlement. The problems such as financial difficulties and necessity for the restructuring of the organization in economic activities still remain. Amid such circumstances, whether the recent trend of a "reinstated United Nations" gains permanency or not, will depend on the results of its future activities.
(1) Revitalization of Peace-Keeping Activities
Among the various kinds of activities undertaken by the United Nations in recent years, the most noteworthy is the revitalization of peace-keeping operations. The Nobel Peace Prize awarded to the United Nations in December 1988 represented a high regard for the U.N. 's peace-keeping activities by the international community.
The peace-keeping operations (abbreviated as PKO) of the United Nations have been established through the actual experience of the U.N. in peaceful settlement of conflicts, as the collective security system relied mainly on the United Nations forces, which was envisaged in Article 43 of the United Nations Charter, had failed to function due to lack of cooperation among the permanent members of the Security Council amid confrontation between the Eastern and Western blocs in the postwar years. The U.N. peace-keeping operations are undertaken mainly in the form of an observer group (usually unarmed) whose duty is to supervise an election or to report violations of a cease-fire agreement, or of a peace-keeping force (generally permitted to carry defensive weapons) whose duty is to ensure the cease-fire in an area of conflict. At present, ten observer groups and peace-keeping forces are under operation. Five of them - the U.N. Good Offices Mission in Afghanistan and Pakistan (UNGOMAP), the U.N. Iran-Iraq Military Observer Group (UNIIMOG), the U.N. Angola Verification Mission (UNAVEM), the U.N. Transition Assistance Group (UNTAG), and the U.N. Observer for the Verification of Election in Nicaragua (ONUVEN) - began their operations between 1988 and 1989.
With regard to the present U.N. efforts for settling regional conflicts, the Afghan problem lingers on as the confrontation between the Najibullah regime and the guerrillas still continues, although the Soviet Union had withdrawn all its troops from that country by February 1989 incompliance with the April 1988 Geneva Accord. As for the Iran-Iraq conflict, four rounds of direct negotiations have been held in New York and Geneva under the auspices of the Secretary General of the United Nations since the cease-fire in August 1988. But there still remain wide differences of views between them on the issues such as troop withdrawal, dredging of the Shatt-al-Arab freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf, and exchange of prisoners of war. Further improvement of the peace process through the United Nations is hoped.
On the Angola-Namibia problem, a tripartite agreement was signed by Angola, Cuba, and South Africa in December 1988 to solve the Angola problem, providing an opportunity to organize the UNAVEM in January 1989. Later, on April 1, 1989, the UNTAG was organized to implement the Security Council Resolution 435 (for the termination of the illegal ruling of Namibia by South Africa). The process toward the independence of Namibia scheduled for April 1, 1990, including constituent assembly election (scheduled for early November 1989) is in progress under the UNTAG.
Central America is another area of U.N. peace-keeping operations. In response to the request made by a meeting of the presidents of five Central American countries held in El Salvador in February 1989, the United Nations decided to take part in the peace process of the Central American problem. As a result, the ONUVEN was organized in August1988 to supervise the Nicaraguan general elections scheduled for February 25, 1990.
The U.N. Secretary-General has been serving as a mediator for the parties involved in Western Sahara and Cyprus. The U.N. Secretary-General attended the International Conference on Cambodia held at the end of July 1989, and played an important role for peaceful settlement, proposing the sending of a preliminary study team. There is a growing expectation to the U.N. involvement in the process of peaceful settlement of regional conflicts.
Among these brisk U.N. activities in the field of peace-keeping, Japan has been reinforcing and expanding cooperation for the U. N. peace-keeping operations in terms of funds and manpower as one of the concrete steps of "Cooperation for Peace." As a non-permanent member of the U.N. Security Council for two years until the end of 1988, Japan made a positive contribution to the peaceful settlement of the Iran-Iraq conflict from the stage of drafting the resolution 598. Japan will continue to support the efforts by the U.N. Secretary-General and the Security Council for the settlement of regional conflicts.
The aspect of prior prevention of conflicts is also important in the U. N. peace-keeping function. "The Declaration on the Prevention and Removal of Disputes and Situations which may threaten International Peace and Security and on the Role of the United Nations in this Field, "proposed by Japan and other Western countries was adopted at the 43rd U.N. General Assembly in 1988. The declaration is expected to organically clarify the roles of the Security Council, the General Assembly, and the U.N. Secretary-General in the area of peace-keeping, and strengthen the peace-keeping function of the United Nations as a whole.
Summary of Peace-Keeping Activities by the United Nations
(2) Economic Activities
(a) Approach to Development Issues in the 1990s
At the 16th U.N. General Assembly of 1961, then President Kennedy proposed to designate the 1960s as a "United Nations Development Decade" and called on the U.N. organs and member countries to extend greater financial and technical cooperation for development. Later, international development strategies for the second and third "United Nations Development Decade" for the 1970s and 1980s were worked out in the United Nations. At the 43rd U.N. General Assembly of 1988, a decision was made to set up a preparatory committee for "International Development Strategy for the Fourth United Nations Development Decade" in the 1990s. The earlier development strategies for the second and third decades produced concrete effects on the policies of the member countries: ODA target of 0.7% of GNP, for example. It is desirable that the development strategy for the 1990s will set forth guidelines to be followed by the international community as a whole in step with the new realities such as the increased diversity of developing countries. Japan is taking part in the preparation of the new development strategy with the determination to make positive contributions in this area as a nation influencing the world economic management in no small way and on the way to becoming the world's largest donor country.
It was decided at the 43rd General Assembly that a special session of the general assembly devoted to international economic cooperation, in particular to the revitalization of economic growth and development in developing countries be held in April 1990. A conference on the Least Developed Countries (LLDCs) is scheduled for September 1990. All of these moves signify that an attempt to restructure the international cooperation framework has begun for the development and growth of developing countries toward the 21st century.
(b) Independent Group on Financial Flows to Developing Countries (Schmidt Commission)
In response to a proposal made by then Japanese Foreign Minister Kuranari at UNCTAD VII held in Geneva from July to August 1987, the Independent Group on Financial Flows to Developing Countries (the Schmidt Commission) was set up. Under the auspices of the U.N. University, the commission consisted of 16 eminent persons, including former Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Mr. Schmidt as chairman. The Schmidt Commission met in April and May 1989 respectively in Tokyo and Washington D.C. to examine in their personal capacities global economic management, toward the 21st century based on an overall view. The commission made public its report in July, which include recommendations to policy makers of the world. The report handed in person to leaders of various countries by the commission members emphasizes that Japan's leadership is essential to encouraging financial flows to developing countries.
(c) International Decade for Natural Disaser Reduction
The year 1988 was marked by exceptionally frequent natural disasters. Growing interest was shown in the natural disaster problem at the 43rd U.N. General Assembly, which resolved to give relief assistance to flood-devastated Bangladesh and Sudan, and hurricane-hit Jamaica. The resolution on Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, put forward by Japan and co-sponsored by 141 countries was adopted. The Ad Hoc International Group of Experts established on the basis of the 1987 Resolution met four times. Its final session held in Tokyo in April 1989 came out with "The Tokyo Declaration" for the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction.
(d) 45th Session of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)
The Soviet Union and other countries vigorously participated in the 45th ESCAP Session held in April 1989 against the backdrop of easing tensions around the world. The Soviet Union offered to host an ESCAP Session in Central Asia in 1993 or 1994. Vietnam appealed to the countries of the West for increased economic interflow against the background of an easing Indonesian situation.
There was a strong indication that member countries favor increased activities of ESCAP for the benefit of the island nations in the Pacific and the LLDCs that are left in an economic situation disadvantageous to those of the NIEs and ASEAN countries.
(e) Entry into Force of the Agreement Establishing the Common Fund for Commodities
The Agreement establishing the Common Fund for Commodities entered into force on June 19, 1989, nine years after it was made in June 1980 as one of the major achievements of the North-South dialogue at the UNCTAD. The Common Fund consists of two Accounts. The First Account contributes to financing of international buffer stocks and internationally coordinated national stocks, all within the framework of International Commodity agreement or arrangement. The Second Account finances commodity development measures aimed at improving the structural conditions enhancing markets and in the long-term competitiveness and prospect of particular commodities. With the resources equivalent to $750 million, the fund is expected to play a principal role in ensuring the steady export earnings for developing countries by stabilizing commodity prices.
(3) Social Activities
(a) Human Rights Issues
(i) Japan upholds the basic position of respecting the human rights as universal principle of mankind, and believes that the respect of the human rights will in turn contribute to the peace and stability of the world. Japan has made positive contributions in this direction as a member of the United Nations Commission on Human Rights for three consecutive terms since 1982.
(ii) The deliberations of the human rights issues in the United Nations from the latter half of 1988 through the first half of 1989 were generally characterized by the following: (1) The human rights problems of specific countries continued to be taken up selectively, (2) a change was observed in the approach to the human rights issues by the Soviet Union where perestroika is under way and the country intensified its trends of cooperation with the West, and (3) draft resolutions for human rights issues tied to economic development were submitted one after another, particularly by the developing countries.
(iii) Here are some instances of change in the attitude of the Soviet Union and Eastern European countries, in particular, which were observed in the process of the human rights problem deliberations. (1) resolutions calling for improvement of the human rights condition in Afghanistan were adopted without vote at the 43rd session of the General Assembly of the U.N. and the 45th session of the Commission on Human Rights respectively; (2) when the West presented a draft resolution criticizing the human rights situation in Romania to the 45th session of the Commission on Human Rights, Hungary joined as a co-sponsor, while the Soviet Union and other East European Member States of the Commission did not participate in voting to avoid confrontation with the West.
(b) Refugee Relief
There are now more than 12 million refugees of regions in the world such as Afghanistan, Africa, Indochina, Palestine, Central America. The problems of refugees constitute not only a humanitarian but also a political problem that may undermine the peace and stability of the areas involved. Japan has been taking active part in discussions in international fora on refugee problems and has contributed a total of about $1,200 million for assisting refugees through the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), and the World Food Programme (WFP) as part of "Cooperation for Peace."
The Indo-chinese refugee problem is now 14 years old. The exodus still continues, creating heavy burdens on the neighboring regions and a factor for instability in these regions. Besides, the so-called "boat people" in recent years may be more appropriately described as "economic refugees/ migrants" who illegally leave their country in search of a better life, than refugees in the real sense of the word who are compelled to leave their homelands to flee from persecution.
Under such circumstances, the ASEAN countries took the initiative to hold an "International Conference on Indo-chinese Refugees" convened by the United Nations in Geneva in June 1989. The conference adopted by consensus the Comprehensive Plan of Action including primarily the following four points.
(1) Deterrence of illegal departure by the Vietnamese Government and promotion of "Orderly Departure Program" from Vietnam
(2) Introduction of refugee status determination
(3) Encouragement of the repatriation to their country of origin of those who were not determined as refugees
(4) Promotion of resettlement in third countries for refugees in camps and new arrivals determined as refugees
Parliamentary Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr. Tanaka attended the above international conference as head of the Japanese Delegation. He stated that Japan would accept 1,000 of the "boat people" now staying in the ASEAN countries and Hong Kong over the next three years from the standpoint of reducing the burdens on the ASEAN countries and Hong Kong, and contributing to the peace and stability of the region.
Of Afghan refugees there is no immediate possibility of repatriation of any large numbers of them because of continuing internal conflicts even after the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan in February 1989. But U.N. organizations are making preparations for return of the refugees and reconstruction of the country under the leadership of Coordinator Aga Khan who assumed the post in May 1988. Japan contributed $105 million in March 1989 through the Aga Khan Office to help repatriate Afghan refugees, and extended financial aid (totaling $190 million to date) to the UNHCR and WFP.
(4) Administrative and Financial Questions
The administrative and financial reforms that began in 1987 entered the second year (midterm year) in 1988 and showed further progress. Although the 15% reduction of U.N. staff recommended by the Group of High-level Intergovernmental Experts to review the efficiency of the administrative and financial functioning of the United Nations, was not achieved, it was decided to reduce them by 12.1% by the end of 1989. Regarding the budgetary procedures, preliminary estimate and a contingency fund for the next term (1990-1991) were deliberated for the first time, and were set at $1,982,523,700 (for two years at the 1990-1991 rate) and 0.75% of the estimate (that is, $15 million), respectively. In addition, it was decided to examine the introduction of reserves against foreign exchange fluctuation and inflation at the U.N. General Assembly in 1989. However, there are areas, where reforms are behind schedule, for example, in the reorganization and integration of the substructures for economic and social operations. Continued efforts are expected toward U.N. efficiency even after 1989, the year for presenting a final report on the administrative and financial reforms.
The U.S. non-payment of its assessed contributions to the U.N. had been one of the major causes of the financial deficit of the United Nations. However, partly in view of the progress made in the administrative and financial reforms of the United Nations, the U.S. government decided to pay its share except that part which the U.S. was refusing to pay for political reasons, and promised to settle the amounts in arrears through stages. In the budget message for fiscal 1990 (October 1989-September 1990), the U.S. government appropriated $205.5 million for the payment of the U.S. share of $216 million for 1989, and also $22 million for the first year of the 6-year plan to pay off the amounts in arrears (Note).
The Soviet Union also expressed in October 1987 that it would pay off the amounts in arrears through stages, including its share for U.N. peace-keeping operations.
At the 43rd U.N. General Assembly in 1988, the new scale of assessments for contributions, applicable as a rule for three years from 1989, was adopted. As a result, Japan's contribution rate increased from 10.84% to 11.38%, and Italy's from 3.79% to 3.99%. But West Germany's contribution decreased from 8.26% to 8.08%, France's from 6.37% to 6.25%, and the Soviet Union's from 10.20% to 9.99%. Since many of the member countries whose share percentages increased were developing countries in Latin America, etc., adoption of the new scale of assessments had some difficulties. But the problem was finally settled through an agreement that would be to review the scale calculation method at the Committee on Contributions.
(5) Deliberations on Disarmament in the U.N.
At the First Committee of the 43rd U.N. General Assembly, the issue of disarmament was discussed under a favorable atmosphere brought about by the entry into effect of the INF Treaty, moves toward settlement of regional conflicts and recovery of confidence in the U.N. It was welcomed that there were fewer confrontational speeches at the general debate and discussions were generally more realistic and practical. However, it must be admitted that the debate among participants was not quite an active one, partly because the Third Special Session of the General Assembly devoted to Disarmament failed to adopt a final document. Of the 67 disarmament resolutions that were adopted (61 in 1987), 27 were adopted by a consensus (25 in 1987). This shows that the efforts among the participants to combine similar draft resolutions are bearing fruit, but still not enough.
As for individual resolutions, apart from the familiar themes as the nuclear test ban and a ban on chemical weapons, conventional arms, verification, science and technology are being highlighted. Japan made efforts not only to narrow the gap between various positions whithin the Western group concerning nuclear test ban and other issues, but also to mediate between the Western group and the others - the Eastern and non-aligned, thus contributing to bringing about consensus.
(6) Deliberations in the Conference on Disarmament
Deliberations at the Geneva Conference on Disarmament (CD) were held from February to April (the spring session) and from July to September (the summer session). Eight agenda were taken up including the nuclear test ban, chemical weapons and prevention of an arms race in outer space.
With regard to the nuclear test ban, the ad hoc committee to discuss substantial matters was not established in 1988, although the necessity to do so had been more widely recognized, partly because of the concern for the new move by the non-aligned countries in connection with the NPT reviewing process which begins in 1989.
The Conference on Disarmament has been working on drafting a convention on chemical weapons since 1969. This work continued throughout 1987, not only while CD was in session, but also at informal consultations held outside CD. Japan has been making efforts in promoting discussions on this issue, placing the conclusion of the treaty at the top of priorities in non-nuclear disarmament.
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Note: Then Soviet Chief of Staff Sergei Akhromeyev visited the U.S. in July 1988 ; Soviet Defense Minister D.Yazov visited Britain in July 1989; Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff A.W. Crowe visited the Soviet Union in June 1989; then FRG Minister of Defense R.Scholz visited the Soviet Union in October 1988 (in the company of Chancellor Kohl); FRG Chief of Armed Forces D.Wellershoff visited the Soviet Union in May 1989; French Defense Minister Chevenement visited the Soviet Union in April 1989.
Note: The definition of the extent of the Asia-Pacific region is not necessarily established. In the context of Asian and Pacific cooperation, however, the region often refers to those which are participating in the Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference (PECC), which will be discussed later. They are Australia, Brunei, Canada, China, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Malaysia, New Zealand, the island countries of the Pacific, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and the United States of America.
Note: Three Obstacles
At the 12th Chinese Communist Party Congress, General Secretary Hu Yaobang pointed out the following three problems as signs of Soviet hegemony, and stated that Sino-Soviet relations could move toward normalization if the Soviet Union removed these obstacles.
(1) The Soviet Union has deployed large numbers of troops along the Sino-Soviet and Sino-Mongolia borders over the past 20 years.
(2) The Soviet Union has supported Vietnam in its invasion of Cambodia, expansion of its influence in Indochina and Southeast Asia, and provocation against China along the borders.
(3) The Soviet Union has invaded and occupied Afghanistan, a Chinese neighbor, by force of arms.
Note: The Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence
The five principles are: mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, non-aggression, non-interference in the internal affairs of each other, equality and mutual advantage, and peaceful coexistence. These principles were confirmed between Premier Zhou Enlai of China and Prime Minister Nehru of India in 1954, and have since been one of the basic ideas of China's foreign policy. In 1982, China announced an independent diplomacy, and the Five Principles have since gained still more importance as the basic Principles essential to its diplomacy. China insisted to the Soviet Union in the process of normalization that the Five Principles be the basis of relations between the two countries.
Note: Amounts in arrears to be paid to all international organizations (except those for PKO total): $520 million (including $278, 800,000 for the main body of the U.N.)
Payment for the first year (except for PKO) amounts to $46 million (including $22 million for the main body of the U.N.)