Chapter 2
Japan's Foreign Policy by Region
Section 6 Russia and Belarus, Central Asia and the Caucasus
1 Overview
Despite continued severe sanctions against Russia and strong support for Ukraine, mainly by the G7 and the European Union (EU) countries, an outrageous act of Russia's aggression against Ukraine (which Russia calls a “special military operation”), did not stop in 2024. While Ukraine advanced into Russia (Kursk Oblast) in August, Russia has meanwhile gradually expanded its occupied area of Ukrainian territory. Russia also continued its nuclear threats. In November, Russia announced the “Fundamentals of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence,” its first such document since 2020, and launched what was said to be a new medium-range ballistic missile toward Ukraine in what it called a “test.”
With its relations with Western countries extremely limited, Russia continued seeking to further strengthen its ties with China, India, North Korea, and developing and emerging countries known as the “Global South.” Of particular note are President Vladimir Putin's visit to China immediately after taking office for his overall fifth term, his first visit to North Korea in about 24 years, and the BRICS(1) Summit in October hosted by Russia. Russia claims to unite the efforts of the “global majority.”
Regarding Belarus, the country has maintained a supportive stance towards Russia, which includes both Russia and Belarus making mention of deploying Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.
Regarding Central Asian and Caucasus countries, while they have close geopolitical and economic ties with Russia, they have maintained a neutral stance toward Russia's aggression against Ukraine (excluding Georgia, which has expressed support for Ukraine). Meanwhile, they are also struggling to cope with the impact on transportation routes for energy and other trade items and remittances from migrant workers in Russia.
Amid this situation, the international community is paying close attention to the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus. In 2024, countries including the United States (U.S.), Germany, and the Republic of Korea (ROK) actively engaged in dialogue with Central Asia, holding summit- or ministerial-level meetings with the five Central Asian countries. Furthermore, China has been deepening its involvement in Central Asia year by year, steadily increasing the number of visits by leaders and ministers, and the Fifth China-Central Asia Foreign Ministers' Meeting was held in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China in December.
In the Caucasus region, peace talks and border delimitation negotiations have been held intermittently between Azerbaijan and Armenia since the military activities in Nagorno-Karabakh(2) in September 2023, and while positive developments have been seen that include an agreement on partial border delimitation, a peace treaty has yet to be concluded. In Georgia, amid allegations of fraud with regard to the country's parliamentary elections, the Georgian government announced at the end of November that it would not begin the EU accession process until the end of 2028. This led to large-scale protests by citizens supporting EU accession, resulting in clashes with security forces and many arrests and injuries.
(1) BRICS: A term referring to Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. At the summit meeting in August 2023, invitations for new membership were announced for Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). (Argentina subsequently withdrew its application for membership due to a change of administration, and there are also reports that Saudi Arabia has not yet joined.) At the summit meeting in October 2024, the leaders concurred on creating a new category of BRICS Partner Countries, and 2024 chair country Russia announced that nine countries ─ Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda, and Uzbekistan ─ will join as Partner Countries from January 2025. In January 2025, Brazil, the 2025 chair country, announced Indonesia's full membership.
(2) Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: A dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian settlement on Azerbaijani territory. In September 2023, Azerbaijan carried out military activities in the region, bringing the entire region under Azerbaijan's administration and causing many refugees to flow into Armenia.