Chapter 1
Overview of the International Situation and Outlook for Japan's Diplomacy
In order for Japan to ensure its national interests in the diplomatic, security, and economic domains, to prevent crises, and to secure the safety and prosperity of the lives of its citizens, including Japanese nationals living abroad, it is necessary to maintain and develop an international order based on values and principles such as freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, as well as to proactively create a peaceful and stable international environment. To this end, Japan needs to advance its foreign policy strategically and flexibly, while grasping trends in international affairs with a clear view and adapting to changes.
This chapter outlines a broad overview of the international situation surrounding Japan and the outlook for Japan's diplomacy.
1 Overview of the International Situation
The international community is currently at a major turning point in history once again. For some time since the end of the Cold War, a stable international order has expanded throughout the world. Advanced democracies, including the overwhelmingly powerful United States (U.S.) and Japan, took the lead in maintaining and developing an international order based on values and principles such as freedom, democracy, respect for fundamental human rights, and the rule of law, as well as the rules-based economic order, with the World Trade Organization (WTO) at its core. A trend toward international cooperation to enhance fairness, transparency, and predictability of international relations grew stronger. Furthermore, on the premise of such an international order, economic globalization and interdependence have advanced, bringing a certain degree of stability and economic growth to the international community, including developing countries.
Although globalization has reduced the overall disparities among nations, some countries, such as Least Developed Countries (LDC), have not been able to fully enjoy its benefits. On the other hand, in some developed countries, domestic disparities have rather widened, which has led to political and social tensions and divisions, destabilizing democratic political systems. Furthermore, the rise of emerging and developing countries that developed under the international order described above has led to the diversification of the international community in recent years. Some of these countries of the Global South are aware of this shift and are seeking greater influence and a stronger voice commensurate with their national power.
In addition, some states are strengthening their military power in a rapid and non-transparent manner, and are becoming more assertive and challenging the existing international order based on their own historical views. There also exists a tendency to “weaponize” economic dependencies to achieve their own political goals. On the other hand, the scope of security has expanded to fields such as strengthening resilience of supply chains for critical materials including semiconductors and critical minerals, promotion and protection of critical and emerging technologies, cybersecurity, and countering disinformation. Against the backdrop of these changes in the power balance and security environment, competition among nations has become more intense and complex.
Turning to the entire international community, there is an urgent need to address global challenges including environmental issues like climate change, global health, disaster risk reduction, and issues such as nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, and terrorism and transnational organized crime. In recent years, informatization and digitization have made these issues widely recognized throughout the world, but these issues cannot be solved by any one major power alone, and cooperation within the international community is more important than ever. In addition, economic globalization and interdependence, which have advanced in the post-Cold War world, persistently remain in the era of competition among nations, in which complete decoupling is not realistic. These developments show the complexity of international relations where confrontation, competition, and cooperation are intricately intertwined.
Against this backdrop, Russia launched its aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, shaking the very foundations of the international order that had supported peace, stability, and prosperity in the post-Cold War era. In the Middle East, the entire region has become unstable after the terror attacks against Israel by Hamas and others in October 2023, making the axis of confrontation in the international community, particularly over the situation in Gaza, more complex. It is difficult to say that the United Nations (UN), including its Security Council, is adequately fulfilling the expected roles in the face of various issues caused by serious humanitarian crises and conflicts. Some countries, including the Global South, are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the existing global governance(1) system. This has led to a serious division in the international community.
With international relations complexly intertwined today, conflicts in the two regions of Europe and the Middle East are not only problems in themselves but have also revealed new threats such as cyberattacks and the spread of disinformation, thus hampering international cooperation in solving global issues and affecting the stability and prosperity of all regions of the world, including Japan. Under these circumstances, in 2024, important elections, including the U.S. presidential election, were held in various parts of the world, and there were also cases of severe domestic divisions and political tensions in several countries. The international community going forward will face the challenge of building global governance in which all countries, including the Global South, share responsibility in order to overcome divisions and surmount the common challenges of all humanity.
With the above recognition, the following part explains the major international issues facing the international community.
(1) Global Governance: The totality of institutions, policies, norms, procedures, and initiatives that provide predictability, stability, and order in dealing with interstate issues in the international community where there is no higher level of governing bodies unlike the domestic system.
(1) Challenge to the Free and Open International Order based on the Rule of Law
With conflicts raging in two of the three regions that have been important to global stability in history ─ Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia ─ the stability of the Indo-Pacific region, including East Asia, is more important than ever.
Russia has been continuing its aggression against Ukraine since February 2022. The act of a permanent member of the UN Security Council blatantly violating the principles of the UN Charter, such as sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the general prohibition of the use of force, is an outrageous act that shakes the very foundations of the existing international order, which the international community has built up over a long period of hard work and much sacrifice, and the international community must not allow such an act. Furthermore, Russia has repeatedly threatened Ukraine with the use of nuclear weapons, but the international community must firmly reject Russia's threat to use nuclear weapons, let alone any use of nuclear weapons. The achievement of a just and lasting peace in Ukraine is essential to upholding the rule of law in the international community.
Russia's aggression against Ukraine and unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force in East Asia are not geographically separate and distinct issues, as they pose a challenge to the international order based on the rule of law itself. In East Asia, including the area surrounding Japan, North Korea has been advancing its nuclear and missile development, including the launches of Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM)-class ballistic missiles. In addition, China has been continuing and intensifying its unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force in the East China Sea, including the waters surrounding the Senkaku Islands, and the South China Sea, as well as a series of military activities around Japan. The security environment surrounding Japan is as severe and complex as it has ever been since the end of World War II. Peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait are also important.
In addition, moves to advance Russia-North Korea military cooperation have been revealed, including the engagement of North Korean troops in combat against Ukraine, as well as Russia's procurement and use of North Korean weapons and munitions, including ballistic missiles. Japan is seriously concerned about these moves which not only lead to further deterioration of the situation in Ukraine, but also affect the security of the region surrounding Japan.
In order to achieve stability in the Indo-Pacific region, first of all, it is essential that the United States maintains and strengthens its commitment to the region. It is necessary for Japan to foster the deterrence and response capabilities of the Japan-U.S. Alliance and the credibility and resilience of extended deterrence.(2) The cooperation with like-minded countries that share values, such as the G7, Australia, India, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Southeast Asian countries, and the Pacific Island countries, is also important. Furthermore, from the perspective that the security of the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic is inseparable, it is also important to cooperate with like-minded partners, including European countries, the European Union (EU), and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
At the G7 Apulia Summit, the G7 stated that they seek constructive and stable relations with China and recognize the importance of direct and candid engagement to express concerns and manage differences. They also expressed that they continue to engage in areas of common interest, and called on China to step up efforts to promote international peace and security.
At the same time, between Japan and China, it is necessary, as two countries that have a responsibility for the peace and prosperity of the region and the international community, to comprehensively promote a “Mutually Beneficial Relationship Based on Common Strategic Interests” and to make joint efforts to build “constructive and stable Japan-China relations.”
(2) Providing deterrence that a country possesses to its allies and partners. Japan possesses its own deterrence, while also receiving extended deterrence from its ally, the U.S.
(2) Challenges Posed to Global Governance and Global Issues by the Shift in the Power Balance
The international community is witnessing a historic shift in the power balance, as many developing countries have achieved economic development under the stable international order that developed throughout the post-Cold War era. With developing and emerging countries becoming aware of these changes, the world has witnessed moves among the Global South to increase their unity. It is not appropriate to treat the Global South as a single entity, since the geopolitical position, economic situation, and challenges they face vary from country to country.
Against this backdrop, in recent years, there is growing dissatisfaction with the existing rules and systems of the international community, particularly among the Global South, over situations such as when the UN Security Council, which has primary responsibility for peace and security of the international community, has not necessarily been fulfilling its expected roles in response to the situations in Ukraine and the Middle-East due to the exercise of vetoes by permanent members.
Global challenges such as environmental issues including climate change, disaster risk reduction, and global health including infectious diseases, are becoming graver. In order to bridge the funding gap faced by developing countries in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), there is a growing call for reforms in Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs).
In this context, the Summit of the Future was held in New York, U.S. in September to restore trust in the UN and effectively respond to the SDGs and new challenges through international cooperation. In the negotiation process, there were conflicts of interest between developed countries and developing and emerging countries, but in the end, “the Pact for the Future,” which reflects the calls for strengthening the functions of the UN, including reform of the UN Security Council, and sets out 56 actions to protect the needs and interests of present and future generations, was adopted by consensus. This is the first time that the heads of the world jointly highlighted the urgent need for reforming the UN Security Council, calling for concrete actions to be taken going forward.
While the multilateral systems centered on the UN face difficulties, cooperation among allies and like-minded countries such as the G7, Japan-Australia-India-U.S. (Quad), Japan-U.S.-ROK, Japan-U.S.-Australia, and Japan-U.S.-Philippines, is becoming increasingly important. As it is no longer possible for the international community to converge under a single set of values and principles, Japan needs to take an inclusive approach that overcomes conflicts in values and interests and extend a fine-tuned diplomacy to seek cooperation that is truly needed by each country.
(3) Impacts of Economic Globalization and Development of Science and Technology
The global economic network that developed during the post-Cold War era continues to support growth as the common foundation of the international community, and global interdependence is further deepening.
In this context, in recent years, the vulnerabilities of food and energy supply chains have been revealed due to COVID-19 and Russia's aggression against Ukraine. In addition, some countries attempt to expand their own interests and power by leveraging economic dependencies and their own large markets as tools for economic coercion. This shows that in an era when complete decoupling is no longer possible, economic globalization and interdependence can bring not only growth and prosperity, but also security threats. Challenges such as theft of intellectual property and sensitive technologies, and development finance that ignores other countries' debt sustainability have also been identified, and the scope of security has expanded to include the fields of the economy and technology. In light of such demands of today, there is growing international interest in economic security.
In order to address economic coercion and non-market policies and practices and to maintain and expand the rules-based free and fair international economic order, it is also becoming increasingly important to strengthen the multilateral trading system with the WTO at its core, and to create new rules adapted to the times. Integrating social and environmental sustainability into the economy is also a need of the times, and it is necessary to address environment, human rights, and gender equality with the achievement of SDGs in mind, while aiming for economic growth.
Turning to scientific and technological developments, technological innovations such as fifth-generation mobile communications systems (5G), the Internet of Things (IoT), quantum technology, and others have brought about substantive and irreversible changes in society and daily life, while the development of social media has ushered in an era where geographically distant places are instantly connected through information. Digitalization and information technology have improved the convenience of human life and facilitated cross-border communication. In particular, while Artificial Intelligence (AI), which has developed rapidly in recent years, provides us with the opportunity to transform human society for the better, security risks such as cyberattacks and information manipulation, including the spread of disinformation, have been identified, particularly for advanced AI systems, including generative AI. Such technological advances are also directly linked to national competitiveness, leading to moves to strengthen military power as dual-use military and civilian technology, and democracy itself is being put to the test as the formation of confirmation bias(3) through social media has made it more difficult to form public opinion based on correct information and sound debate.
That peace and development in the international community now cannot be achieved solely through the development of globalization and interdependence is evident under the current international situation. In order to utilize free economic activities, science and technology, and innovation for a better future for humankind, cooperation for appropriate risk management and fair governance is important.
(3) Confirmation Bias: Refers to the tendency, when testing a hypothesis, to have a bias for selecting information that supports the hypothesis from among many pieces of information, and to devalue or ignore information that does not support the hypothesis. (Source: imidas)