Chapter 2
Resilient and Unwavering Regional Diplomacy
2 China / Mongolia, etc.
(1) China
A Situation in China
(A) Domestic Affairs
In March, the first session of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC) was held. Premier Li Keqiang delivered the Report on the Work of the Government, in which he enumerated the issues that China's economy is currently facing, and stated that China will continue “pursuing progress while ensuring stability.” He also noted that China has achieved its First Centenary Goal (which was planned to be achieved by the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in 2021) by eradicating poverty and building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, and that progress had already begun toward the Second Centenary Goal (build a great modern socialist country in all aspects by 2049 which is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China). The leadership of state institutions for the next five years was also appointed, and General Secretary Xi Jinping was elected to his third term as President of the People's Republic of China.
State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang had been absent from public view since the end of June, and was dismissed from his position as Foreign Minister in late July. Wang Yi, former Foreign Minister and Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, was appointed again. Additionally, State Councilor and Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who had been absent from public view since the end of August, was dismissed from his position as Defense Minister in late October.
In early October, “Xi Jinping Thought on Culture” was proposed for the first time at the National Conference on the Work of Public Communication and Culture. At the 19th CPC National Congress in 2017, General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era,” and later, his ideas on the military, economy, ecological civilization, diplomacy, and the rule of law were pointed out as important components of the thought.
In October, the Central Financial Work Conference was held for the first time in six years, and in December the Central Conference on Work Relating to Foreign Affairs was held for the first time in five years. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in December as usual, but a plenary session of the Central Committee, which is typically held in autumn, was not held during 2023.
The international community continues to express high interest in China's human rights situation, including in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) and the situation surrounding Hong Kong. Japan believes that it is important that universal values and principles of the international community, such as freedom, respect for fundamental human rights, and the rule of law, are guaranteed in China, and Japan has also taken summit meetings and foreign ministers' meetings as opportunities to directly communicate its position to the Government of China and express serious concern about these situations. The G7 Hiroshima Summit was hosted by Japan, holding the G7 Presidency, in May, and the G7 Hiroshima Leaders' Communiqué and the G7 Japan 2023 Foreign Ministers' Communiqué both concurred on continuing to express concern about the human rights situation in China. Furthermore, at the UN, Japan has been the only member state from Asia to participate in a joint statement by like-minded countries expressing concerns about the human rights situation in China. At the Third Committee of the UN General Assembly in October, the UK, on behalf of 50 countries, delivered a joint statement concerning the serious human rights violations in the XUAR, and Japan participated in the statement. The Government of Japan will continue strongly urging China to take action while also closely cooperating with the international community.
(B) Economy
At the NPC held in March, a firm growth rate target of around 5% was set for 2023, down 0.5% from the previous year's growth rate target. It was stated that China “should enhance the intensity and effectiveness of our proactive fiscal policy,” the deficit-to-GDP ratio was relaxed to 3.0% (2.8% in the previous year), and the upper limit for new local government special bonds was relaxed to 3.80 trillion CNY (3.65 trillion CNY in the previous year). As a result, China's full-year real GDP growth rate for 2023 increased by 5.2% year on year, achieving the target, and by quarter, the first quarter (January to March) increased by 4.5% year on year, the second quarter (April to June) increased by 6.3% year on year, the third quarter (July to September) increased by 4.9% year on year, and the fourth quarter (October to December) increased by 5.2% year on year.
At the end of 2022, the Chinese economy temporarily experienced a strong recovery centered around service consumption as the “zero-COVID” policy, which placed restrictions on outings, was lifted. However, the recovery gradually slowed down due to factors such as the sluggish real estate market and weak external demand attributed to interest rate hikes in the U.S. and Europe. Furthermore, curbs on economic activity due to the “zero-COVID” policy resulted in poor performances of many companies, thereby suppressing employment, and the unemployment rate among young people aged 16 to 24 rose to over 20%.
At a meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC that was held in July, General Secretary Xi Jinping expressed his recognition that “the Chinese economy is facing new difficulties and challenges, which mainly stem from insufficient domestic demand, difficulties in the operation of some enterprises, risks and hidden dangers in key areas, as well as a grim and complex external environment.” On the other hand, he also noted that “The economy has tremendous resilience and potential for development, and its long-term sound fundamentals remain unchanged,” and, in terms of economic policy for the second half of the year, indicated that China would continuously implement proactive fiscal policy and maintain a prudent monetary policy. Furthermore, in order to expand demand, policies were outlined to expand consumption by increasing residents' income; to promote the consumption of automobiles, electronic goods, furniture, sports, entertainment, tourism, and so on; and to accelerate the issuance and use of special bonds by local governments. Additionally, for the real estate market, it was pointed out that “to adapt to the great changes in the relationship between supply and demand in China's real estate market, it is imperative to adjust and improve the related policies in a timely manner,” and policies such as reductions in down payments and mortgage interest rates were implemented to promote home replacement. Meanwhile, at the sixth session of the Standing Committee of the NPC that was held in October, the issuance of 1 trillion CNY in special government bonds for the purpose of disaster recovery and flood prevention was approved, and the deficit-to-GDP ratio was expected to rise from 3% to 3.8%.
The Central Economic Work Conference held in December positioned 2023 as a “year of economic recovery and development” after measures that were taken against COVID-19. While pointing out challenges to economic recovery, it was evaluated that, “overall, favorable conditions outweigh unfavorable factors in China's development, and the fundamental trend of the economic recovery and long-term positive outlook has not changed.”
(C) Response to COVID-19
The nationwide surge of infected and seriously ill patients at the end of 2022 due to the complete elimination of the previous “zero-COVID” policy had already settled down nationwide as of January 2023, and in January China's National Health Commission announced that “the country's current wave is coming to an end.”
In May there was a temporary spike in the number of infected individuals, which was seen as a “second wave,” but when compared to the end of 2022 there were no major disruptions such as strains on the medical system or impacts on business activities.
The publication of data by the National Health Commission, such as the number of positive cases, was temporarily suspended after the holidays in May, and since June the data has been published once a month.
(D) Foreign Policy
In 2023, China engaged in in-person diplomatic activities at all levels, including by President Xi Jinping and other high-level officials.
In March, at a press conference at the NPC, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang stated that, “We will follow the guidance of head-of-state diplomacy. In particular, we will ensure the success of the two major diplomatic events that we will host ─ the first China-Central Asia Summit and the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, and show the dignity of China's diplomacy.”
In terms of head-of-state diplomacy, President Xi Jinping visited Russia in March as his ninth visit since taking office as President, and held a China-Russia Summit Meeting. In August, he also visited South Africa and attended the BRICS Summit, at which invitations were extended to Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to become new BRICS members. In September, Premier Li Qiang attended the ASEAN-related Summit Meetings (Jakarta, Indonesia) and the G20 New Delhi Summit (New Delhi, India), and Secretary of the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection Li Xi attended the G77+China Summit held in Havana and stated that “China is consistently an inherent member of the Global South.”
As part of its major diplomatic events hosted by China, the first China-Central Asia Summit was held in May in Xi'an, Shanxi Province. President Xi Jinping and the leaders of five Central Asian nations attended the Summit and adopted the Xi'an Declaration of the China-Central Asia Summit. In October, the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation was held face-to-face in Beijing for the first time in four years.
Mutual visits between the U.S. and China were temporarily halted after a Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloon violated U.S. airspace in February. High-level exchanges gradually resumed after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to China in June, such as visits to China by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kelly in July, as well as multiple meetings between National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee Wang Yi.
On the other hand, in the economic sphere, conflicts in the area of economic security continued to expand as in the previous year. In July, China announced export controls requiring the submission of end-use certificates and other documentation for items related to gallium and germanium. These are important minerals mainly supplied by China. The Biden administration in the U.S. has promoted a de-risking policy toward China to reduce excessive dependence in supply chains and is promoting efforts to strictly control limited advanced technologies. In August, the Biden administration announced an executive order banning investment in China in the areas of semiconductors and microelectronics, quantum information technology, and artificial intelligence if there are national security concerns. Furthermore, in October, revisions were made to the export control measures for advanced semiconductors that were implemented in October 2022, including expanding the items subject to restrictions.
In November, a U.S.-China Summit Meeting was held during the APEC Leader's Meeting in San Francisco, U.S., and the two leaders affirmed the resumption of high-level military-to-military communication and cooperation to combat the manufacturing and trafficking of illicit drugs such as fentanyl. Stable U.S.-China relations are important not only for Japan, but also for the entire international community. The future developments will remain to be a matter of interest.
As for the situation in the Middle East, a political dialogue between China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia was held in Beijing in March, and the normalization of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudia Arabia was announced.
Regarding the Israeli-Palestinian situation since October, Wang Yi, Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, and Zhai Jun, Special Envoy of the Chinese Government on the Middle East Issue, have been in frequent communication with both Israel and Palestine, as well as with neighboring countries.
China continues to strengthen cooperative frameworks such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), as well as with the emerging market and developing countries represented by the G77, and Japan will closely watch their future impact on China's diplomacy.
(E) Military Affairs and Security
At the 19th CPC National Congress (2017), President Xi Jinping stated that China would transform its armed forces into a world-class military by the middle of this century. Additionally, the communique from the fifth plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Committee, published in October 2020, set the new goal of “securing the realization of the centennial goal by 2027, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA).” Furthermore, at the 20th CPC National Congress in 2022, he reiterated this point, stating that “Achieving the goals for the centenary of the People's Liberation Army in 2027and more quickly elevating our people's armed forces to world-class standards are strategic tasks for building a modern socialist country in all respects.” Although China's publicly reported defense expenditures have increased about 37-fold over the past 30 years, the breakdown of the budget and the intention behind the increases have not been sufficiently disclosed, and it is believed that this is only a portion of the amount that China actually spends on military purposes. Amidst such circumstances, China, under its “development strategy of civil-military fusion,” has been extensively and rapidly enhancing the quality and quantity of its military power centered on its nuclear and missile capabilities and naval and air forces. In addition, China is placing importance on ensuring its superiority in new domains of outer space, cyberspace, the electromagnetic spectrum, AI, and unmanned systems, and promoting the modernization of its military through “integrated development of mechanization, informatization and the application of smart technologies.”
In 2023, continuing on from the previous year, Japan has confirmed movements such as navigation by Chinese naval survey vessels in Japan's territorial sea around Yakushima, joint navigations by Chinese and Russian naval vessels around Japan, and joint flights by Chinese and Russian strategic bombers around Japan. In April, China conducted large-scale military exercises in the waters and airspace around Taiwan, with the exercises involving the participation of numerous naval vessels and aircraft, following similar exercises in August 2022. In the South China Sea, China has continued and strengthened its unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force and to render them faits accomplis which goes against the rule of law and openness, as well as its actions to increase regional tensions, such as further militarization of disputed features and coercive actions against coastal States.
In recent years, China has grown to have a great influence on the international community, not only politically and economically, but also militarily. China's current external stance, military activities, and other activities have become a matter of serious concern for Japan and the international community, and present an unprecedented and the greatest strategic challenge in ensuring the peace and security of Japan and the peace and stability of the international community, as well as in strengthening the international order based on the rule of law, to which Japan should respond with its comprehensive national power and in cooperation with its ally, like-minded countries and others. With regard to China's rapid strengthening of its military capabilities and expansion of military activities, Japan will strongly encourage China to improve transparency and to cooperate constructively with international efforts for arms control, disarmament and other such efforts, in cooperation with its allies, like minded countries and others. Furthermore, in order to nurture a relationship of trust between China and Japan, Japan will enhance communication with China in the security field, including through dialogues and exchanges such as the Japan-China Security Dialogue. Additionally, Japan will promote efforts between Japan and China, including the establishment of frameworks to avoid and prevent unforeseen situations with China, such as the Maritime and Aerial Communication Mechanism between the Japanese and Chinese defense authorities. In this way, Japan, in cooperation with related countries, is strongly urging China to improve its transparency to dispel the concerns of the international community, including Japan, while further promoting mutual trust in Japan-China relations.
B Japan-China Relations
(A) Bilateral Relations: General
Relations with neighboring China are one of Japan's most important bilateral relations, and the two countries have close economic ties and people-to-people and cultural exchanges. While there are various possibilities between Japan and China, there are a number of challenges and concerns, including unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force in the East China Sea and South China Sea as well as the situation surrounding the Senkaku Islands, and intensified military activities around Japan by China, including those conducted in coordination with Russia. Peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is also important. Furthermore, Japan is seriously concerned about the situation in Hong Kong and the human rights situation in the XUAR. At the same time, both Japan and China have a great responsibility for the peace and prosperity of the region and international community. Japan will comprehensively promote a “Mutually Beneficial Relationship Based on Common Strategic Interests.” At the same time, it is important that both China and Japan promote efforts to build constructive and stable relations, in which Japan maintains and asserts its position, and strongly calls for responsible actions by China, while continuing dialogue including on issues of concern and cooperating on matters of common interest.
Continuing on from the previous year, in 2023, high level communication, including between leaders, was continuously conducted. Japan and China exchanged opinions on a wide range of topics, from bilateral relations to regional and international affairs, including on a variety of issues between the two countries.
On February 2, Foreign Minister Hayashi held a Japan-China Foreign Ministers' telephone call with Foreign Minister Qin Gang, and stated that he would like to cooperate with Minister Qin in order to realize the broad direction of building a “constructive and stable relationship,” which was an important shared recognition between the two leaders, and Minister Qin expressed the same view. On February 18 at the Munich Security Conference, Foreign Minister Hayashi held a meeting with Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee Wang Yi.
From April 1 to 2, Foreign Minister Hayashi visited China for the first time by a Japanese Foreign Minister in approximately three years and three months. In addition to meeting with Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee Wang Yi, Foreign Minister Hayashi also paid a courtesy call on Premier Li Qiang. During the meeting with Foreign Minister Qin Gang, Foreign Minister Hayashi stated that he hoped that both sides would continue making efforts to put into practice the common understanding shared by the two leaders of building a “constructive and stable Japan-China relationship,” and Foreign Minister Qin Gang indicated that he was of the same view. Foreign Minister Hayashi also made a protest against the detention of a Japanese national; expressed Japan's serious concerns about the situation in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, the intensification of Chinese military activities near Japan, and the human rights situation in China; and clearly communicated Japan's position regarding the discharge of ALPS treated water5 from TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station into the sea.
On July 14, Foreign Minister Hayashi held a meeting with Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee Wang Yi during the ASEAN-related Foreign Ministers' Meetings in Indonesia. During the meeting he clearly reiterated Japan's position regarding the discharge of ALPS treated water into the sea and once again called upon China to act based on a scientific standpoint, and also expressed Japan's resolute position on the case of the detention of a Japanese national in China, Japan's grave concerns about issues such as the situation in the East China Sea, and China's increasingly active military activities near Japan.
On September 6, Prime Minister Kishida, who was visiting Jakarta, Indonesia, had a brief conversation with Premier Li Qiang prior to attending the ASEAN Plus Three Summit Meeting. In the conversation, Prime Minister Kishida, referring to the importance of building a “constructive and stable Japan-China relationship,” clearly reiterated Japan's position on ALPS treated water.
On November 16, Prime Minister Kishida, who was visiting San Francisco, U.S., to attend the APEC Leaders' Meeting, held a Japan-China Summit Meeting with President Xi Jinping. Prime Minister Kishida stated that 2023 marks the 45th anniversary of the conclusion of the Treaty of Peace and Friendship between Japan and the People's Republic of China, and that this has provided the people of both countries an opportunity to remember the efforts made by many of their predecessors for the development of friendly relations in a wide range of areas and to look ahead to the future of Japan-China relations. Prime Minister Kishida added that it is important that as major powers that lead the region and the international community, both Japan and China fulfill their responsibilities to contribute to global peace and stability. The two leaders reaffirmed to firmly uphold the principles and common understanding of the four basic documents between Japan and China, and to comprehensively promote a “Mutually Beneficial Relationship Based on Common Strategic Interests,” and went on to confirm a broad direction of building “constructive and stable Japan-China relations” in order to carve out a new era in Japan-China relations. From that perspective, the two leaders welcomed the successful ministerial dialogue held in 2023 in the areas of foreign affairs; economy, trade and industry; defense; and environment, and concurred to continue having close communication at all levels, including the summit level. Additionally, Prime Minister Kishida expressed his desire to promote mutually beneficial cooperation in specific areas of economy and people-to-people exchanges. Prime Minister Kishida also expressed his desire to help revitalize Japan-China economic exchanges after ensuring a business environment that guarantees legitimate business activities. The two leaders agreed to hold the Japan-China High-Level Economic Dialogue at an appropriate time in order to achieve concrete results in areas of cooperation, such as green economy, including environment and energy conservation as well as medical care, nursing care, and healthcare; welcomed the launch of the Japan-China Export Control Dialogue; and concurred to strengthen dialogue on macro-economy and confirmed that the geographical scope of Japan-China cooperation is expanding across the world. The two leaders shared the intention to work together as responsible major powers on global challenges such as climate change, to further expand people-to-people exchanges in various areas, and to hold the Japan-China High-Level People-to-People and Cultural Exchange Dialogue at an appropriate time. In addition, Prime Minister Kishida welcomed the launch of the operation in May of a hotline between the Japanese and Chinese defense authorities under the Maritime and Aerial Communication Mechanism, and stated the importance of communication on security matters. Prime Minister Kishida also reiterated his serious concerns regarding the situation in the East China Sea, including the situation surrounding the Senkaku Islands, called for the immediate removal of the buoy installed in Japan's exclusive economic zone (EEZ), and reiterated his serious concerns regarding the intensification of China's military activities in areas surrounding Japan, including those coordinated between China and Russia, and other matters. Prime Minister Kishida again stressed that peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is extremely important for Japan and the international community, and, in response to China's assertions on its position regarding Taiwan, stated that Japan's position on Taiwan is based on the Joint Communique of the Government of Japan and the Government of the People's Republic of China issued on September 29, 1972, and that there is no change in this position. Furthermore, Prime Minister Kishida also reiterated his call for the early release of Japanese nationals detained in China. Prime Minister Kishida once again strongly called for a calm response based on scientific evidence in response to the discharge of ALPS treated water into the sea, and reiterated his call for the immediate lifting of import restrictions on Japanese food products. Recognizing that there are differences in their respective positions, both sides shared the view that they will seek to find ways to resolve issues through consultations and dialogue in a constructive manner. The two leaders also discussed international affairs, such as North Korea, including the abductions issue, the Middle East and Ukraine, and confirmed that they will maintain close communication on those issues.
On November 25, Foreign Minister Kamikawa held a Japan-China Foreign Ministers' Meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the occasion of the Japan-China-ROK Trilateral Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Busan, the ROK. The Foreign Ministers shared the intention to work together closely to develop Japan-China relations in line with the broad direction confirmed at the Japan-China Summit Meeting on November 16, and both sides confirmed that they will maintain close communication at all levels. Foreign Minister Kamikawa also strongly called for the immediate lifting of restrictions on imports of Japanese food products, expressed Japan's serious concerns about various outstanding issues such as the situation in the East China Sea, and called for the immediate removal of the buoy installed in Japan's EEZ. The two Ministers also exchanged views on global issues and the situation in North Korea.
In addition, in February the Japan-China Security Dialogue and Japan-China Diplomatic Consultations were held; in April and October various face-to-face meetings were held working level, including the Japan-China High-Level Consultation on Maritime Affairs; and close communication between Japan and China continued at working levels, including frank exchanges of views on various outstanding issues such as the situation in the East China Sea and increased military activity by China.
Furthermore, on the occasion of the IISS Shangri-la Dialogue held in Singapore, a Japan-China Defense Ministerial Meeting was held between Minister of Defense HAMADA Yasukazu and Chinese State Councilor and Defense Minister Li Shangfu on June 3.
5 ALPS treated water is water which is processed by devices such as ALPS (Advanced Liquid Processing System) for its radioactive materials other than tritium to surely become below the regulatory standards for safety. ALPS treated water is then sufficiently diluted so that the concentrations of the radioactive materials including tritium is far below the regulatory standards for safety, and then finally discharged into the sea.
(B) Japan-China Economic Relations
Economic relations between Japan and China, including trade and investment, are very close. In 2023, the total trade between Japan and China (excluding Hong Kong) amounted to about 300.7 billion U.S. dollars (10.4% decrease year on year), and China has been the largest trading partner for Japan for 17 consecutive years.
Moreover, according to Chinese statistics, Japan's direct investment in China was about 4.61 billion U.S. dollars (17.7% increase year on year, as estimated from officially published information on investment) in 2022. Japan ranks third in terms of the amount of direct investment to China (Singapore ranks first and the ROK ranks second). According to balance of payment statistics, China is Japan's third largest investment destination after the U.S. and Australia, and is a source of direct investment income that amounts to about 3.2 trillion yen.
Economic dialogue between Japan and China continued as restrictions on travel due to the spread of COVID-19 were eased. A Japan-China Foreign Ministers' Meeting was held in April and a meeting with Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee Wang Yi was held in July, during which it was confirmed that Japan and China would continue close communication at all levels, including at the leader and foreign ministerial levels. At the Japan-China Summit Meeting on November 16, the two leaders agreed to hold the Japan-China High-Level Economic Dialogue at an appropriate time in order to achieve concrete results in areas of cooperation, such as green economy, including environment and energy conservation as well as medical care, nursing care, and healthcare. Additionally, at the Japan-China Foreign Ministers' Meeting on November 25, the two Foreign Ministers concurred on coordinating toward utilizing the Japan-China High-Level Economic Dialogue and the Japan-China High-Level People-to-People and Cultural Exchange Dialogue to be held at an appropriate time, in order to promote bilateral cooperation in areas such as green economy (including environment and energy conservation), as well as medical care, nursing care, and healthcare and to expand people-to-people exchanges in various areas as agreed by the two leaders during the Japan-China Summit Meeting on November 16. The Japan-China Economic Partnership Consultation was also held online in February. As for public-private economic exchanges, the 9th Japan-China Business Leader and Former High-Level Government Official Dialogue (Japan-China CEO Summit) was held face-to-face in November, with State Minister for Foreign Affairs HORII Iwao from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs attending the welcome reception.
(C) Promotion of Mutual Understanding Between Japanese and Chinese People
(Current situation of people-to-people exchanges between Japan and China)
On January 8, 2023, China relaxed its border measures, including by eliminating post-entry PCR tests and quarantine measures, but it announced on January 10 that the issuance of general visas to Japanese citizens would be temporarily suspended in response to border measures announced by Japan at the end of 2022 to address the spread of COVID-19 infections in mainland China. On January 29 China once again resumed issuing general visas, but did not resume issuing some visas (such tourist visas, which had previously been suspended) and visa exception measures for short-term stays (up to 15 days) in China. On March 15, China resumed issuing various types of visit visas, including tourist visas, but visa exemption measures for short-term stays in China for Japanese nationals remain suspended (as of December 2023).
The number of visitors to Japan from China was approximately 2.425 million in 2023 (provisional value from the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO)). Although this value is a significant increase when compared to the approximately 189,000 visitors in 2022 (finalized value from JNTO), when compared to the 9.594 million visitors in 2019, the flow of people between Japan and China has not yet fully recovered to pre-COVID-19 levels.
A wide range of cultural, economic, educational, and regional exchanges have been built up between Japan and China. 2023 marks the 45th anniversary of the conclusion of the Treaty of Peace and Friendship between Japan and China, and many events and activities were held to commemorate this event.
On October 23, the effective date of the treaty, the “Reception for the 45th anniversary of the Treaty of Peace and Friendship between Japan and China” was held in Tokyo, hosted by the Executive Committee for Promotion of Japan-China Exchange (Chair: TOKURA Masakazu, Chairman of the KEIDANREN (Japan Business Federation)), and featured messages exchanged between Prime Minister Kishida and Premier Li Qiang and between Foreign Minister Kamikawa and Foreign Minister Wang Yi to commemorate the 45th anniversary of the conclusion of the treaty. On the same day, a commemorative reception was also held in Beijing by the Chinese People's Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries and the China-Japan Friendship Association.
As for youth exchange programs for the next generation, with COVID-19 continuing to subside, for the first time in about three years cross-border travel is being resumed and face-to-face exchange programs are being held. It is hoped that exchange programs such as Japan's Friendship Ties Program “JENESYS” will promote mutual understanding and understanding of Japan between students and researchers from both countries.
(D) Specific Pending Issues
(Situation Surrounding the East China Sea)
In the East China Sea, China Coast Guard vessels continue to intrude into the Japanese territorial sea around the Senkaku Islands. The Chinese military has also been rapidly expanding and increasing its activities in quality and quantity in the sea and in the airspace over the East China Sea.
The Senkaku Islands are indisputably an inherent territory of Japan in light of historical facts and based upon international law. Indeed, the Senkaku Islands are under the valid control of Japan. Thus, there exists no issue of territorial sovereignty to be resolved concerning the Senkaku Islands. From 1895, when the Senkaku Islands were incorporated into Japanese territory by lawful means under international law, until the 1970s, when the islands became the focus of attention after it was suggested that there might be oil reserves in the East China Sea, China had not raised any objections to Japan's sovereignty over the Senkaku Islands. Moreover, China has never explained why it had not expressed objections until then. Subsequently, in 2008, vessels belonging to China's State Oceanic Administration intruded into Japanese territorial sea surrounding the Senkaku Islands for the first time.6
During 2023, 34 incidents were recorded in which China Coast Guard vessels intruded into the Japanese territorial sea surrounding the Senkaku Islands (there were 28 incidents in 2022 and 34 incidents in 2021), and the number of confirmed days in 2023 in which China Coast Guard vessels navigated the contiguous zone around the Senkaku Islands reached a record high of 352 days. Furthermore, since May 2020, Chinese Coast Guard vessels have intruded into the Japanese territorial sea of the Senkaku Islands and there have been incidents in which China Coast Guard vessels frequently attempt to approach Japanese fishing boats in those waters, and the situation remains severe, as evidenced by an incident associated with China's such attempts that occurred in April 2023, in which an intrusion into Japan's territorial sea lasted more than 80 hours, the longest ever recorded. The activities of the China Coast Guard vessels, which make their own assertions in Japan's territorial sea around the Senkaku Islands, are in violation of international law, and, in response to China's such unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force, through diplomatic routes the Government of Japan has repeatedly lodged strong protests, has called for the prompt withdrawal of Chinese vessels from Japan's territorial sea, and has demanded that such incidents be prevented from reoccurring. With the determination to defend Japan's territory as well as territorial sea and airspace, Japan will continue to take a calm and resolute approach to the situation.
Chinese naval vessels and aircrafts have also been accelerating their activities in the sea and airspace around Japan, including in the East China Sea. In 2023, continuing on from the previous year, Japan confirmed multiple instances in which Chinese naval survey ships navigated Japanese territorial sea around Yakushima. Joint flights by Chinese and Russian strategic bombers were confirmed in June and December, and continuing on from the previous year, joint navigation by Chinese and Russian vessels was confirmed from July to August. On multiple occasions Chinese naval vessels were also confirmed to be navigating waters surrounding Japan including in those around the Senkaku Islands. Based on past movements of Chinese naval vessels in the waters surrounding Japan, the Government of Japan has strong concerns about the navigation of Chinese naval vessels in Japanese territorial sea. Furthermore, because the joint actions of Chinese and Russian militaries in the vicinity of Japan are a serious concern for Japan's security, Japan has appropriately raised objections with the Chinese side regarding each incident.
Chinese aircraft activity, including by unmanned aerial vehicles, continues to occur, and the number of times the Air Self-Defense Force has had to scramble jets in response to Chinese military aircrafts since autumn 2012 has remained high. In response to these recent activities by the Chinese military, Japan has been raising the issues through diplomatic routes.
China has been continuing its unilateral activities to develop natural resources while the EEZ and the continental shelf between Japan and China in the East China Sea remain pending delimitation. In addition to the four structures built by the Chinese side prior to the “2008 Agreement” on resource development in the East China Sea, the Government of Japan has confirmed 12 new structures built between June 2013 and May 2016 that are west of the geographical equidistance line and two new structures that have been built since May 2022, for a total of 18 structures have been installed in 16 locations so far (at two of the 16 locations, two structures have been integrated into a single structure). Such unilateral development activities are extremely regrettable, and every time such moves by China are detected, Japan has strongly requested China to cease its unilateral development and to immediately resume negotiations for the conclusion of international agreements based on the implementation of the “2008 Agreement” regarding the development of natural resources in the East China Sea. At the summit meeting between Prime Minister Abe and President Xi Jinping in June 2019, the two leaders shared the view of promoting and implementing the “2008 Agreement” regarding resource development in order to achieve the goal of making the East China Sea a “Sea of Peace, Cooperation and Friendship,” and at the Japan-China Foreign Ministers' Meeting held in April 2023, the two Foreign Ministers also shared the view on promoting and implementing the “2008 Agreement” regarding resource development in the East China Sea.
Chinese maritime structures confirmed to have been built near the geographical equidistant line between Japan and China (Photo: Ministry of Defense)
For details, see https://www.mofa.go.jp/a_o/c_m1/page3e_000356.html
In recent years numerous activities by China to carry out maritime surveys in and around Japan's EEZ, including in the East China Sea, without obtaining Japan's approval, have also continued, and each time this happens Japan raises objections with the Chinese side through diplomatic routes.
Additionally, in July 2023, the existence of a buoy considered to have been installed by China was confirmed to be in Japan's EEZ in the East China Sea. The Government of Japan has utilized various opportunities at all levels, including at the Japan-China Summit Meeting and Japan-China Foreign Ministers' Meeting in November, to lodge protests against China, and has repeatedly and strongly called for the immediate removal of the buoy.
In order to appropriately deal with these maritime and security concerns, both Japan and China have been promoting dialogue and exchanges between the authorities concerned. For example, in June 2018 the defense authorities of Japan and China began operation of the Maritime and Aerial Communication Mechanism between the Japanese and Chinese defense authorities, which is highly significant for promoting mutual understanding between both countries and avoiding and preventing accidental collisions, and under the Mechanism the operation of the Hotline between Japanese and Chinese Defense Authorities began in May 2023.
As Japan has stated on repeated occasions, including at Japan-China Summit Meetings, true improvement in Japan-China relations cannot be achieved without stability in the East China Sea. It is highly meaningful from the perspective of building trust and bolstering cooperation for diplomats from both countries to directly and frankly exchange opinions, such as at the Japan-China High-Level Consultation on Maritime Affairs or other discussions between related authorities of both countries. The Government of Japan will continue asserting Japan's position on individual issues through steady dialogue and bolstering of communication.
6 Ministry of Foreign Affairs website detailing the position of the Government of Japan on the Senkaku Islands:
https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/senkaku/index.html
(Yamato Bank)
In the waters around the Yamato Bank in the Sea of Japan, illegal fishing by Chinese fishing vessels was still confirmed in 2023. Utilizing opportunities such as Japan-China High-Level Consultation on Maritime Affairs, Japan has, at various levels, repeatedly conveyed its concerns and has strongly urged China to take effective steps, including strengthening measures such as providing guidance to those engaged in fishing.
(Japanese Food Import Restrictions Issue)
Regarding the import restrictions that China placed on food products from Japan, Japan has been strongly and repeatedly urging China to immediately remove these restrictions at various levels, including at the leader and foreign ministerial levels.
On August 24, in response to the discharge of ALPS treated water into the sea, the Government of China announced a temporary suspension of all imports of Japanese marine products. China's introduction of new measures in addition to existing import restrictions is a response that is not based on scientific evidence, and Japan has seized various opportunities at all levels, including at the leader and foreign ministerial levels, to call for the immediate removal of these measures. Furthermore, in response to China's notification at the World Trade Organization (WTO) based on the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement) the Government of Japan has submitted its counterargument in writing to the WTO that refutes China's claims, and has also explained Japan's position at related committees, including at the SPS Committee. Furthermore, the Government of Japan has requested that the Government of China hold discussions based on the provisions of the SPS Agreement and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement, and is urging China to respond to these discussions in accordance with its obligations under the agreements.
Japan is strongly urging China to engage in discussions based on scientific evidence, and will continue utilizing every opportunity to urge China to immediately remove import restrictions on Japanese food products.
(Cases of Detainment of Japanese Nationals)
In regard to successive cases of detainment of Japanese nationals, the Government of Japan has urged early release of Japanese detainees on various occasions between Japan and China, including summit and foreign ministers' meetings, and, so far, five Japanese nationals have been released before being arrested and six Japanese nationals have returned to Japan after serving their sentences. In March 2023, another Japanese national was detained in Beijing. The Government of Japan has been strongly requesting, at all levels and on every occasion, including at the leader and foreign ministerial levels and at the Japan-China Summit Meeting and Japan-China Foreign Ministers' Meeting , that the Government of China provide early releases; transparency in law enforcement and judicial processes, including with respect to China's revised Counter-Espionage Law; and proper safeguards for the rights of Japanese nationals, as well as ensuring impartial justice and humane treatment, and will continue to tenaciously persevere in such efforts. Additionally, from the perspective of protecting Japanese nationals, the Government of Japan is providing as much support as possible, including consular visits and contact with family members.
In response to these successive cases of Japanese nationals being detained, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan and the Embassy of Japan in China have issued warnings on their websites urging Japanese residents to be aware that acts deemed to “endanger national security” are subject to investigation, and that they may not only be forced to spend long periods of time in detention, but may also face penalties such as imprisonment if convicted. Additionally, in response to the revised Counter-Espionage Law taking effect in July 2023, the content of the warning on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Overseas Safety website has been updated to provide more detailed and specific warnings.
(Abandoned Chemical Weapons Issue)
The Government of Japan, in accordance with the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), has been steadily working on the destruction of chemical weapons abandoned by the former Japanese military forces in China. In 2023, Japan carried out the excavation, and recovery, and destruction operations of abandoned chemical weapons (ACW) in Haerbaling District, Dunhua City, Jilin Province, and also carried out the destruction operation of ACW in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province. Additionally, Japan also carried out field surveys and the excavation and recovery operations of ACW in various other parts of China (as of December 2023, approximately 88,000 ACW have been destroyed).
(2) Taiwan
A Domestic Affairs and Economy
Taiwan has presidential and legislative elections every four years, and they were held on January 13, 2024. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) suffered a significant defeat in the local elections held in November 2022, but in the 2024 presidential election, Vice President Lai Ching-te, the DPP's official candidate, was elected with 40.05% of the vote. The difference between Lai Ching-te and the second-place candidate from the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party was 6.56 points. In the legislative elections that were held at the same time, the DPP lost 11 seats and fell to 51 seats, down from the 62 seats it held before the election, and making it the second largest party in the Legislative Yuan (113 seats in total). The KMT was the leading party in the legislative elections, increasing by 15 seats to 52 seats, and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) a new party that was formed in 2019, increased by 3 seats to 8 seats, but no party gained a majority of the seats. As such, the TPP has become the deciding vote in the Legislative Yuan (when two major parties are competing and neither can control a majority, the minority party effectively holds the decision-making power).
Since the second half of 2022, Taiwan's economic growth rate has declined due to inflationary pressures and sluggish external demand caused by the U.S.-China conflict and by Russia's aggression against Ukraine, and Taiwan's annual real GDP growth rate for 2023 is forecast to be only +1.61%.
B Cross-strait Relations and External Relations
From March 29 to April 7, 2023, President Tsai Ing-wen visited Guatemala and Belize in Central America, which have diplomatic relations with Taiwan, stopping in New York, the U.S. on the way there and in Los Angeles on the way back. In Los Angeles, she held a meeting at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library with bipartisan members of the U.S. Congress, which was hosted by Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy. In response, China announced sanctions, including a ban on visits to China, against Representative of Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the U.S. Bi-khim Hsiao representatives of the Ronald Reagon Presidential Library, and others, and also conducted military exercises near Taiwan from April 8 to 10. On April 5, a naval fleet including the aircraft carrier Shandong made its way from the South China Sea to the Western Pacific Ocean.
On March 26, just before President Tsai Ing-wen's overseas trip, the Central American country of Honduras severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan and established diplomatic relations with China.
From August 12 to 18, Vice President Lai Ching-te visited Paraguay, a South American country that has diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and President Santiago Peña Palacios said that “During my five-year term, Paraguay will stand with Taiwan.” Vice President Lai Ching-te did not hold any meetings with dignitaries during his stops in New York on the way out or in San Francisco on the way back. In response, China conducted military exercises around Taiwan on August 19. Furthermore, China announced anti-dumping duties on Taiwanese polycarbonates on August 15, and a suspension of imports of Taiwanese mangoes on August 21.
In September, Taiwan held a ceremony to launch its first domestically manufactured submarine. In addition, Taiwan's defense budget for FY2024 was a record high of 606.8 billion NTD, and Taiwan has been making efforts to strengthen deterrence, including reverting the compulsory military service period from four months to one year, starting from 2024.
On December 21, China announced that Taiwan's trade restrictions with China violate the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), and that from January 1, 2024, China was suspending the application of the tax rates stipulated in the ECFA for 12 Taiwanese products, including paraxylene.
In December, just before Taiwan's presidential election, China also rescinded preferential tariffs on certain chemical imports from Taiwan under the ECFA.
In response to the DPP candidate Lai Ching-te's election in the January 2024 presidential election, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi commented that, “The outcome of the recent leadership election in the Taiwan region also won't change the prevailing consensus of the international community on adhering to the ‘one-China principle'” and that “China will eventually achieve complete reunification.” The State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, which is in charge of Taiwan, released a statement saying, “the results reveal that the DPP cannot represent the mainstream public opinion on the island.” Immediately after the election, on January 15, the Pacific Island country of Nauru severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan, bringing the total number of countries that recognize Taiwan to 12.
Peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait are important not only for the security of Japan, but also for the stability of the entire international community. This was reaffirmed at the G7 Hiroshima Summit, and the G7 leaders concurred to call for a peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues.
In 2023, active visits to Taiwan by legislative members and others from various countries continued, particularly from Europe and the U.S., with 61 groups making visits, which is 31 more than in 2022.
Taiwan was an observer at the World Health Organization (WHO) General Assembly from 2009 to 2016, but has not been able to participate since 2017. Japan has consistently asserted that there should be no geographical gap in responding to international health issues. From this perspective, Japan has consistently supported Taiwan's participation as an observer to the WHO General Assembly.
C Japan-Taiwan Relations
For Japan, Taiwan is an extremely important partner and an valuable friend, with which it shares fundamental values and principles such as freedom, democracy, basic human rights and the rule of law, and enjoys close economic relations and people-to-people exchanges. The relations between Japan and Taiwan are maintained on the basis of working relations at the non-governmental level in accordance with the 1972 Joint Communiqué between Japan and China. Citizen sentiment in both Japan and Taiwan is generally positive, and, 42 members from the Japan-ROC Diet Members' Consultative Council delegation attended the National Day Celebration events held in Taipei on October 10, and for the second consecutive year, a marching band from a Japanese high school was invited as a guest performer. There have also been active visits by dignitaries, such as the when the Vice Premier of the Executive Yuan visited Japan in June for the first time in 29 years for an economic conference and when Vice-President of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan ASO Taro visited Taiwan in August to attend a symposium. In 2023, a total of 4.2 million people traveled from Taiwan to Japan.
Taiwan has been responding to Japan's discharge of ALPS treated water based on scientific evidence. On the other hand, import restriction measures such as import suspensions and the requirement to submit certificates of some Japanese foods still remain in place. Japan continues to persistently urge Taiwan to lift these restrictions as soon as possible based on scientific evidence.
In March, the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association and the Taiwan-Japan Relations Association signed a “Memorandum of Understanding on Exchange and Cooperation in the Legal and Justice Fields,” bringing the total number of agreements between the two associations to 64.
(3) Mongolia
A Domestic Affairs
In order to strengthen overall coordination functions related to long-term development plans, the Oyun-Erdene Administration worked on strengthening the system for promoting the “New Recovery Policy,” a policy package aimed at achieving post-COVID-19 economic independence; including by positioning the Minister of Economy and Development at the Deputy Prime Minister level, and creating a ministerial post in charge of “Border Port Recovery” (issues on development of infrastructure to serve as bases for imports and exports, etc.), which is one of the pillars of that Policy. Additionally, in response to frequent demonstrations in 2022 including those over the mismanagement scandal by the Development Bank of Mongolia and the allegations of illegal exports at the Tavan Tolgoi coal mine, the administration designated 2023 as the “Year of Fighting against Corruption.” However, it resulted in the resignation of some ministers and multiple incumbent legislators due to coal corruption allegations. In addition, the allegations of corruption in the procurement of buses for the capital city Ulaanbaatar was raised, which led to the resignation of the mayor of Ulaanbaatar and the Minister in Charge of Capital Affairs.
In May a constitutional amendment bill was passed to change the number of seats in the State Great Hural (Parliament) and the electoral system (to take effect in January 2024); a proportional representation system was introduced in addition to the electoral district system for the next general election in 2024; and the number of seats of the State Great Hural, which had been maintained at 76 seats since its establishment in 1992, was significantly expanded to 126 seats in total, including 78 constituency seats and 48 proportional representation seats.
B Foreign Policy
Mongolia, which is situated between China and Russia and increasingly dependent on both countries in terms of economy and energy, has long pursued a foreign policy of maintaining good relations with both countries as a top priority while at the same time maintaining a balance by strengthening relations with other countries, including Japan and Western countries, which it positions as its “Third Neighbors.”
In 2023, numerous dignitaries visited Mongolia, including French President Emmanuel Macron (May) and His Holiness Pope Francis (September), while President U. Khurelsukh, Prime Minister L. Oyun-Erdene, and Foreign Minister B. Battsetseg, each actively visited foreign countries and engaged in active dignitary diplomacy. Furthermore, in June, Foreign Minister Battsetseg hosted a Female Foreign Ministers' Meeting in the capital Ulaanbaatar, which the Foreign Ministers of France, Germany, Indonesia, and other countries attended.
As for Mongolia's relations with China, Foreign Minister Battsetseg (May, November), Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene (June), and President Khurelsukh (October for the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, accompanied by Foreign Minister Battsetseg) visited China. As for Mongolia's relations with Russia, Chairman of the State Great Hural G. Zandanshatar visited Russia (June), and from Russia Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Gordeyev Alexey Vasilievich (January), Chairman of the State Duma Volodin Vyacheslav Victorovich (September), and Deputy Prime Minister Viktoria Abramchenko (October) visited Mongolia. Furthermore, Mongolia continued efforts to maintain relations with both neighboring countries, including by holding multiple summit meetings with both China and Russia during international conferences.
C Economy
In 2023, Mongolia's economy continued on a recovery trend due to expansion of external demand from China and accompanying expansion of domestic demand. Export growth was especially driven by Chinese demand for mineral resources including coal. On the other hand, industries other than mining recovered in a slow pace. In particular, the production of livestock and agricultural products experienced negative growth due to poor weather from winter to spring. Mongolia's inflation rate, being slightly better than in 2022, also continued to rise at 10.4%, which has slowed the economic recovery. Mongolia's economic growth rate from July to September was 6.9% year on year. In addition, Mongolia's trade value for 2023 increased by 12.1% in terms of exports and increased by 6.3% in terms of imports when compared to the previous year.
D Japan-Mongolia Relations
In regard to relations with Japan, high-level exchanges and dialogue continued in 2023.
Chairman of the State Great Hural Zandanshatar visited Japan at the invitation of the House of Councilors in March; a meeting between Foreign Minister Hayashi and Foreign Minister Battsetseg was held at the ASEAN-related Foreign Ministers' Meetings in July; and a Summit Meeting was held between Prime Minister Kishida and President Khurelsukh at the UN General Assembly High-level Week in September. The two counties confirmed steady progress being made in cooperation projects in various sectors based on the “Japan-Mongolia Action Plan (2022-2031),” which was issued on occasion of President Khurelsukh's visit to Japan in 2022.
Specifically, as part of cooperation with Mongolia's “One Billion Trees” initiative, which President Khurelsukh proposed and has been implementing as part of measures to combat climate change and desertification, Japan has launched the first project under its plan of afforestation up to around 50,000 trees over five years in Mongolia. In addition, the second “Japan-Mongolia Student Forum” (a three-day online study session and a two-night, three-day exchange camp), which was launched on the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and Mongolia, was held in the period from July to October, and students who will be responsible for the next generation of bilateral relations deepened mutual understanding and exchanges.