Section 6. The Middle East
1-1. Security in the Gulf Region
The Gulf Crisis, a problem that concerned the international order, was brought to an end by the multinational forces based on the resolutions approved by the U.N. Security Council. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) (Note), an organization consisting of the six Gulf countries including Kuwait, had its own "Shield of the Peninsula" forces to defend the member countries. However, against the sudden invasion of the overwhelming Iraqi forces, defense by the GCC alone did not actually function.
Based on the experience of the Gulf Crisis, the eight Foreign Ministers from the GCC member countries, Egypt and Syria, which took a joint stance against Iraq at the time of the Gulf Crisis, met in Damascus in March 1991 and adopted the Damascus Declaration, which defined the principles of cooperation and coordination concerning security and other matters among the Arab countries after the Gulf Crisis. This Declaration mentions the idea of the eight countries creating an Arab peace-keeping force. These eight countries had a meeting of experts in May and a Foreign Ministerial Conference in July, and continue to discuss what the security system based on this concept should be.
On the other hand, each of the GCC countries has been promoting bilateral security cooperation with extra-regional countries such as the United States. In September, Kuwait signed a 10-year security agreement which included the use of military facilities in Kuwait by U.S. forces, the prepositioning of military equipments in Kuwait, joint training and exercises with U.S. forces and other measures.
Furthermore, the Gulf countries share the recognition that it is necessary to build a cooperative relationship not only among themselves, but also with Iran, for the long-term stability of the Gulf Region as a whole. There is an indication that the GCC and Iran will cooperate with a view to building confidence in each other in possible areas as economic exchanges against the background of the improved and closer relationship between Saudi Arabia and the other GCC countries and Iran.
1-2. The Issue of Peace in the Middle East
(1) The Gulf Crisis and Peace in the Middle East
After invading Kuwait on August 2, 1990, President Saddam Hussein of Iraq linked this invasion with the issue of peace in the Middle East question in his announcement of August 12 and demanded the international community to solve these two problems simultaneously (the so-called "linkage" argument). It is clear that behind this demand Iraq intended to rally public opinion in the Arab world, which was frustrated by the stalemate in the Middle East peace process, to support Iraq. It aimed to win the support by claiming that the response of the international community concerning the implementation of U.N. Resolutions on the issue of the peace in the Middle East was extremely insufficient compared with their response to the implementation of the resolutions concerning the Gulf Crisis (the so-called "double-standard" argument). The international community came to recognize again the necessity of the resolution of the issue of peace in the Middle East, including the Palestinian problem, for the stabilization of the region, while it clearly refused the linkage argument.
During the Gulf Crisis, the issue of peace in the Middle East was treated as a problem to be solved after the Crisis, and no progress was made in this issue. However, in the meantime, a major clash occurred between Arab residents and the Israeli authorities on October 8, 1990 in the old city section of East Jerusalem, which is under Israeli occupation. This clash resulted in a large number of casualties on the side of the Arabs (Temple Mount Incident). After the incident, the issue of peace in the Middle East was discussed at the U.N. Security Council, which adopted on December 20 Resolution 681 concerning the Palestinian situation. The statement made by the Chairman of the Security Council on this matter attracted attention, since it mentioned that convening an international conference on peace in the Middle East will promote efforts toward achieving peace in the region.
When the multinational forces resorted to military operation in January 1991, Iraq attacked Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities with missiles, intending to involve Israel in the conflict. Israel restricted itself from counterattacking Iraq, partially because of the persuasion of the international community, including the United States and Japan. The United States had provided Patriot missiles in exchange for its self-restraint. The attitude of Israel reinforced its position in the international scene. On the other hand, Chairman Yasser Arafat of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), who had been deepening the PLO's relationship with Iraq, promptly expressed his support of Iraq in response to President Hussein's linkage claim in August 1990. This action was supported by the Palestinian public, which had been frustrated by the fact that no progress had been made in moves toward achieving peace in the Middle East. However, the PLO leadership lost the confidence of the international community, including the Arab countries in the Gulf after the Crisis, and was forced to take a low profile in the peace process. Among the Arab countries, Syria and Egypt participated in the multinational forces and have come to represent the Arab position in the move toward peace since March 1991.
(2) The Situation after the Gulf Crisis
When the cease-fire between the multinational forces and the Iraqi forces was concluded, the international community resumed pursuing a solution to the issue of the peace in the Middle East. In the United States, which played a central role in solving the Gulf Crisis, President George Bush announced in his speech of March 6 that the time had come to close this matter based on Resolutions 242 and 338 of the U.N. Security Council as well as on the principle of "land for peace." Secretary of State James Baker visited the countries concerned, which include Israel, Egypt, Syria and Jordan, six times between March and early August. He promoted the initiative of holding a peace conference co-chaired by the United States and the Soviet Union for discussing the issue with the participation of all countries concerned. Secretary Baker proposed to pursue the peace negotiations in two tracks; namely, a negotiation on the Palestine issues between Israel and Palestinians, which the Arabs had been advocating, along with the bilateral negotiations between Israel and the Arab states, which had been the Israeli demand.
There were developments in the realization of the U.S. initiative based on the shift of power balance and objectives among the countries concerned with the Middle East conflict as a result of the Gulf Crisis and its resolution, as well as on the painstaking diplomatic efforts by the U.S. to pursue the initiative. Meanwhile, it was difficult to ensure the participation of Israel and Syria due to the conflict in their views on the participation of the United Nations in the conference and the continuity of the conference. However, the situation took a quick turn on July 14 when President Hafez al-Assad of Syria softened his attitude about attending the conference. At the summit meeting between the United States and the Soviet Union, which was held at the end of July, a joint declaration stating that the two countries will endeavor to bold a peace conference in October was issued. Although there are still some problems left to be solved for holding the peace conference, such as how to elect the representative of the Palestinians to the conference, the United States and the international community continue to make efforts to realize the conference. The political declaration of the London Summit in July 1991 stated that both the Israeli construction of settlements for Jewish immigrants in the occupied territories and the so-called Arab boycott (the boycott by the Arab countries against economic transactions with Israel) should be suspended in order to build confidence among the countries concerned.
(3) Japan's Position
Even during the Gulf Crisis, Japan placed the issue of peace in the Middle East as one of the most important issues to be dealt with after the Crisis. Japan started to endeavor to have closer dialogues with both the Arab countries and Israel. In February, the Government sent high ranking officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to Israel and the Arab countries concerned, to exchange opinions on how peace should be attained. In March, Japan decided to provide $10 million emergency food aid to the Palestinian refugees who were in serious economic difficulties as a result of the Crisis, in response to a request by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA). The Government of Japan valued the proposal of Secretary of State James Baker to hold a peace conference as an effective effort to attain peace, expressed its support to the plan and has been assisting this effort through such ways as political dialogues with the countries concerned. In particular, Foreign Minister Taro Nakayama visited Israel from the end of May to the beginning of June as the second visit by a Japanese Foreign Minister. In the meetings with the Israeli leaders, Foreign Minister Nakayama suggested Israel take flexible attitudes toward the peace issue, improve the treatment of the Palestinians in the occupied territories and stop constructing settlements there. Responding to the likelihood of the peace conference co-hosted by the United States and the Soviet Union, Japan is making further diplomatic efforts.
The Government of Japan has been firmly keeping the basic position that a just, lasting and comprehensive peace be achieved on the basis of Resolutions 242 and 338 by the U.N. Security Council through: (1) the Israeli withdrawal from all the territory occupied after 1967, (2) the approval of the right to self-determination of Palestinians including the right of establishing an independent state, and (3) the approval of Israel's right to exist. Based on this position, Japan has been contributing to build confidence between the Arabs and Israelis as well as promoting political dialogues with the parties concerned at all possible occasions. From such a perspective, Japan has been supporting the Palestinians in the occupied territories through such international institutions as UNRWA, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and others, and criticizing the actions taken by the Israelis to deport residents from the occupied territories. As for the Arab boycott of Israel, Japan has been making it clear that it impedes free international economic transactions and is thus undesirable. At the London Summit, Japan, along with other participating countries, called for the suspension of the boycott in the political declaration. There should be difficulties in convening a peace conference itself and also in seeing substantial improvement in settling various issues. Despite such a prospect, the Government of Japan will pursue its own diplomatic involvement in the issue, taking into account that the achievement of peace in the Middle East is an essential requirement to the stabilization of the region as well as the international community.
2-1. Israel and the Occupied Territories
During the Gulf Crisis, Israel restrained itself from counterattacking against the undiscriminating and unilateral missile attacks by Iraq. This restrained attitude prevented the spread of the fighting and contributed to the early termination of the war, which strengthened Israel's external position. Domestically, an argument existed that Israel should strike back to the first direct missile attack on Tel Aviv, but the Likud coalition government has strengthened its position by thorough self-restraint with the support of opposition parties. On the other hand, the economic situation in Israel deteriorated extremely due to the slowed economic activities, the reduced trade volume and the sharply decreased income from tourism as well as to the increased immigrants from the Soviet Union. Overcoming the economic difficulty by means of the expansion of employment is one of the most important policy issues for Israel after the Gulf Crisis in addition to the issue of peace in the Middle East.
Concerning its relations with Japan, Israel has strongly hoped to strengthen the economic ties. When Foreign Minister Nakayama visited Israel in May 1991, Israel asked the Government of Japan to approve its airline access to Japan, to advance financing services and to cooperate in abolishing the Arab Boycott. Foreign Minister Nakayama's visit to Israel was arranged with the aim that Japan should properly contribute to the issue of the peace in the Middle East and transform its relationship with Israel to a more balanced one. The visit was opportune for suggesting to Israel, which holds the key to the issue of peace in the Middle East, to suspend building settlements in the occupied territories, to improve the treatment of the Palestinians living there and to take a more flexible and realistic approach to the peace process. This was the second time a Japanese Foreign Minister visited Israel following Foreign Minister Sosuke Uno's visit in 1988. The visit cemented the political dialogue between the two countries at the Foreign Ministerial level.
In the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip occupied and controlled by Israel, resistance activities by the Palestinians ("Intifada") against Israel, which started in December 1987, continued throughout the Gulf Crisis. The Israeli authority reinforced its control against Intifada activity, particularly after the Temple Mount incident of October 8, 1991 and issued curfew orders and deportation orders in the occupied territories. During the Gulf Crisis, the economic situation in the occupied territories was further aggravated due to frequent curfew orders and other measures, the suspension of remittance from the Palestinians in the Gulf countries, and the increase of unemployment in Israel itself. Japan rendered $10 million emergency food assistance through UNRWA to the Palestinian refugees who were dealt an economic blow by the Gulf Crisis. Japan is also dealing with the expansion of assistance to the Palestinians.
2-2. Egypt
During the Gulf Crisis, Egypt considered Iraq's withdrawal from Kuwait and the restoration of Kuwait's legitimate government as an unconcessionable condition and consistently adhered to the resolutions adopted by the U.N. Security Council. Egypt kept a dauntless attitude by taking the lead in sending troops to the multinational forces in response to the request of Saudi Arabia, based on the resolution of the Arab League Summit meeting which Egypt proposed to convene. This positive stance of Egypt contained the Arab moves to support Iraq and greatly contributed to ensure the unified action of the international community to liberate Kuwait. After the Gulf Crisis, Egypt, as one of the important countries of the region, has continued to play an active role for the issue of peace in the Middle East, the security of the Gulf and arms control.
Egypt's foreign exchange inflow decreased because of the Gulf Crisis, since the remittance of Egyptian residents in Iraq and Kuwait stopped and the foreign currency receipts from tourism and Suez Canal dues decreased. On the other hand, its expenditure increased for the employment measures to absorb about 600,000 Egyptians who had returned from Iraq and Kuwait. As such, Egypt suffered an enormous economic loss, which was estimated to be about $20 billion.
Considering the role played by Egypt in the Gulf Crisis and the economic difficulty the country has been facing, the international initiatives to assist Egypt were activated, starting with the cancellation of $6.7 billion military debt by the United States. Japan decided to extend economic assistance of about $600 million, mainly in the form of emergency commodity loans. As for the further implementation of the economic reforms, the most difficult domestic issue, the negotiations with the IMF were finally concluded in May 1991. Consequently, the Paris Club Creditor Country Conference was held in May and the decision was made to reduce Egypt's official debt by 50 percent in real terms.
Japan attaches importance to its relations with Egypt since it recognizes the development of the bilateral relations and the policy coordination with Egypt, which plays an important role particularly in the diplomatic scene in the Middle East, will contribute to the furthering of the mutual understanding not only between the two countries but also between Japan and Arab countries as a whole. Foreign Minister Nakayama's visit to Egypt which took place in August 1990 shortly after the outbreak of the Gulf Crisis was followed by Prime Minister Kaifu's visit in October 1990, the first Japanese Prime Minister's visit ever made to Egypt. Foreign Minister Nakayama visited Egypt again in May 1991 on the way to Israel to continue the dialogue with Egyptian leaders.
2-3. Syria
During the Gulf Crisis, Syria played an important role for the restoration of peace in the Gulf region by participating in the multinational forces. It also reinforced relations with Lebanon through the conclusion of a cooperation treaty. Syria thus strengthened its position among the Middle Eastern countries. Syria, on the other hand, suffered large economic and social damages by the inflow of refugees, repatriation of overseas workers and the suspension of remittance from Kuwait. To assist Syria, Japan decided to provide \64.9 billion in loans.
2-4. Iraq
The Hussein regime was weakened by the military defeat to the multinational forces. Consequently, the Kurds and the Shiites rose in early March 1991 in revolts aiming to overthrow the Hussein regime. But the revolts were virtually suppressed in early April 1991 since the government still kept a considerable military force intact for internal repression, and the rebel groups were not sufficiently organized. The Hussein regime has been trying to stabilize the situation by having talks with the Kurds concerning their autonomy and introducing a multi-party system. Although the regime wishes for an early termination of the economic sanctions to expedite domestic reconstruction, it repeatedly takes uncooperative actions concerning the implementation of the U.N. Security Council Resolutions, such as obstructing the U.N. inspection of weapons of mass destruction or making false reports. There is little prospect that the current situation of Iraq's international isolation will change.
It is reported that the battles in the Gulf War caused Iraq to lose about two-thirds of its army equipment, about two-thirds of its warplanes and almost all of its warships as well as about 30 percent of its troops in all branches of armed forces. But Iraq still remains a military power in the region. It is necessary for the international community to continue to monitor its behavior in the future.
2-5. Jordan
Although Jordan has maintained favorable relations with European countries and the United States, its relationship with the United States has receded as shown in the decision taken by the U.S. Congress to suspend its assistance to Jordan. This was a result of the international perception that the position taken by Jordan during the Gulf Crisis was pro-Iraq. Japan maintained a favorable relationship with Jordan, attaching importance to the fact that the stabilization of Jordan is significant for peace in the Middle East while understanding Jordan's position that King Hussein Bin Talal was forced to take into consideration the pro-Iraq force in his country. Since the Gulf Crisis affected Jordan's economy enormously, Japan extended financial cooperation totaling $700 million including low-interest emergency commodity loans.
2-6. The Gulf Countries
Saudi Arabia was exposed to a threat to its own security by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and called for the deployment of the multinational forces led by the U.S. armed forces. The Saudi Arabians themselves participated in the multinational forces, extended assistance to other participating countries and made efforts to extend economic support to the neighboring countries in order to consolidate an anti-Iraq front. This adoption of an active diplomacy has been maintained even after the settlement of the Gulf Crisis: Saudi Arabia has been trying to reconstruct the security system in the Gulf region by reinforcing its relations with Egypt and Syria, guiding other GCC member countries and resuming diplomatic relations with Iran. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia maintains a severe attitude toward Yemen, Jordan and others which supported Iraq during the Gulf Crisis. The relationship between those countries and the GCC countries has cooled down.
The Gulf countries have been maintaining their traditional political systems based on royal or emir rule. However, the Gulf Crisis made it evident that coping with the demands of their people for political participation and democratization is an important task for them.
2-7. Iran
Iran under the Rafsanjani regime has gradually consolidated its realistic policies, despite the resistance posed by the leftists centering in the Parliament.
Although the five-year economic reconstruction plan entered its third year, it cannot be said that the plan has been smoothly implemented. Iran has various economic difficulties.
On foreign affairs, the restoration of the severed diplomatic relations with Iraq, Tunisia, Mauritania, the United Kingdom, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, along with the improvement of relations with the EC countries and the exchange of ambassadors with the Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) member countries, contributed to a major step forward from diplomatic isolation. However, there has been no remarkable improvement in its relationship with the United States.
As for the peace negotiations after the cease-fire of Iran-Iraq Conflict in 1988, Iraq suddenly made unilateral concessions immediately after its invasion of Kuwait in August 1990, and an agreement was virtually reached concerning the exchange of war prisoners and the establishment of national borders. Despite this improvement, the issues of war responsibility and reparations remain to be solved.
During the Gulf Crisis, Iran promptly criticized Iraq for the invasion of Kuwait and firmly maintained economic sanctions against Iraq, while professing its neutrality. After the Crisis, Iran has made clear its readiness to actively take part in establishing the security arrangement in the Persian Gulf region, and claims that Iran and the GCC should play the core role.
As for the relationship with Japan, Foreign Minister Nakayama visited Iran in May 1991 for meetings with President Hashemi Rafsanjani and other key officials of the Iranian Government. Foreign Minister Nakayama exchanged views with them on the situation in the region after the Gulf Crisis and other topics, and conveyed Japan's policy of considering financial cooperation in addition to the existing technical cooperation to strengthen the bilateral relationship.
2-8. Turkey
During the Gulf Crisis, Turkey imposed severe economic sanctions against Iraq by closing pipelines from Iraq, suspending trade with Iraq and Kuwait under occupation and other means. Although Turkey did not participate in the multinational forces, it positively cooperated with the activity to restore peace by the international community to contain Iraq by increasing military deployment on its borders with Iraq and allowing the U.S. military forces to use bases in Turkey for bombing Iraq.
Politically, Turkey presented a united front during the Gulf Crisis, in principle, even though some part of the public opinion criticized the government during the Crisis for actively cooperating with the multinational forces out of the concern that the battle would spread into Turkey. Since the war ended with the victory of the multinational forces in a relatively short period, the actions taken by the government were justified and the Gulf Crisis has not much affected its domestic policies.
On the other hand, the economic sanctions dealt Turkey a major economic blow, since it has had close economic relations with Iraq as a neighboring country. According to the Turkish government's estimation, the Gulf Crisis cost Turkey about $7 billion due to such factors as increased oil prices, a sharp decline in tourism income, the suspension of loans to Turkey by private financial institutions and increased military expenditures. After the end of the Crisis, 400,000 to 500,000 refugees, mainly Kurds who feared suppression by the Iraqi army, fled into Turkey's border regions with Iraq. Turkey has to bear financial and human resource burdens to support these refugees until they return to Iraq.
The Government of Japan attaches importance to Turkey, as the political stabilizer in the region, due to its important geopolitical location and its relatively developed economy under a democratic political system, and is trying to strengthen the relationship between the two countries through political dialogue, exchange of persons, economic cooperation and cultural exchanges. Foreign Minister Nakayama visited Turkey in August 1990 and Prime Minister Kaifu in October 1990.
During the Gulf Crisis, Japan contributed $700 million to Turkey as part of its assistance to the neighboring countries of Iraq severely affected by the Gulf Crisis.
2-9. Algeria
In June 1990, local assembly elections based on a multi-party system took place for the first time in the history of Algeria, which was a great step toward democratization. In these local elections, however, the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS), a fundamentalist Islamic party, defeated the National Liberation Front (FLN), which had maintained a single-party dictatorship. As the result of these local elections, a large expansion of the FIS power was expected in the ensuing national assembly elections scheduled for June 1991.
Under these circumstances, the ruling FLN steered the National Assembly to adopt a revised election law and a constituency law in April 1991 to prepare for the forthcoming general elections. The FIS called for the abolition of these laws, claiming that they were revised in favor of the FLN, and appealed to the public for a general strike to demand early and simultaneous implementation of general and presidential elections. This led to a sharp deterioration in public peace and order. Under these circumstances, the government proclaimed martial law on June 5, 1991. It was also announced that the Hamrouche Cabinet resigned en masse, and Foreign Minister Sid Ahmed Ghozali was appointed as the head of Cabinet. New Prime Minister Ghozali consulted with the opposition parties before forming his Cabinet and established a coalition Cabinet including opposition party members on June 17.
The Algerian Government is promoting a series of economic reforms toward democratization and liberalization along with political reforms. However, these policies have caused serious inflation and unemployment problems, which is one of the reasons for the rise of Islamic fundamentalism. Although the Algerian Government is creating jobs and taking other measures to remove these social uncertainties, no remarkable results have been seen. The Government is being forced to adopt very severe economic management.