CHAPTER TWO
MAJOR TRENDS IN THE WORLD
IN 1982
1. General Characteristics
(1) The major characteristic of the recent international situation is that the importance of East-West relations, underrated in the relaxation of tensions during the first half of the 1970s, has been again recognized, in view of developments thereafter, as the basic factor determining the trends of the international situation. Western nations have sought new policies concerning East-West relations on reflection that their policies in the 1970s were not always appropriate, and some of these new policies are being put into practice.
The policy of detente which characterized East-West relations in the 1970s had its basis on the fact that there exists "the balance of terror" between the United States and the Soviet Union, both of them possessing mutual assured destruction capability by strategic nuclear weapons. Such an East-West balance had been rapidly moving against the West every year.
The Soviet Union and China also needed detente with the United States in view of the fact that the two communist countries had to maintain big military forces in the areas along their border since the end of the 1960s when their confrontation intensified. However, the power structure aspect of East-West relations, lying behind the international atmosphere generated through detente and the various political, economic and social circumstances within the West which led to easing tensions, was overlooked. This resulted in the failure of the West in taking effective measures against the military advances of the Soviet Union and Cuba into Africa and the Middle East and also the Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia.
In the latter half of the 1970s, however, many Western nations gradually became aware of the dangers of the rapid expansion of Soviet nuclear and conventional forces and Soviet military infiltration into the Third World. Such awareness is increasingly reflected in policies of the West. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 accelerated this trend by forming a consensus among the West on the issue.
East-West relations up to the end of the 1970s brought about an international circumstance extremely favorable to the Soviet Union. It is believed, however, that the Soviet Union has thoroughly reviewed the trend of the international situation surrounding itself following the change in Western nations' policies on security. Although the Soviet Union has become more deliberate in its behavior than before as a result of the review, there is no sign to indicate any modification of its armament programs which have been maintained for more than 10 years. It is believed that the Soviet Union has no intention to make any concession concerning its new involvement in the Third World and its dominant role in East European nations. East-West relations in recent years are more strained than in the decade that preceded.
As the first step to improve the East-West military balance, the United States and other member nations of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) approved their long-term defense program in 1978 and reached an agreement on increasing their defense budgets by 3 percent annually in real terms.
Temporarily, there was discord between the United States and some Western nations on the sanctions they should take against the Soviet Union following the Soviet involvement in Afghanistan and Poland. They later reached a consensus on the basic policy of improving East-West relations. The basic policies of the West on security, arms control and disarmament, among other issues, were effectively incorporated into the political statement of the Williamsburg summit meeting of industrialized countries in 1983. The statement declared that the participating nations shall counter any threat to defend freedom on which the advanced democracies are based, maintain sufficient military strength to ensure peace, make efforts to achieve lower levels of arms through arms control negotiations, and approach their security, which is indivisible, on a global basis.
(2) The Soviet Union and China started vice ministerial talks to improve their relations. Since there is still a big distance between the positions of the two countries at this meeting, they are not likely to normalize their relations easily. However, the relations which were once extremely bad are gradually improving: the exchange of reproaches decreased while trade and the flow of people between the two countries is increasing. The basic stance of Western nations are to maintain and promote friendly relations with China while giving highest priority to unity among themselves. They are closely following the development of Sino-Soviet relations, to which they believe there is a limit because of the current international situation surrounding China.
(3) China was in a controversy with the United States over the latter's arms exports to Taiwan since 1981, but the two countries settled the issue in their joint statement in summer 1982. Although friction continued over the United States' policies toward Taiwan even after that, both nations have maintained the basic position of mutually promoting their friendly relations. The two nations are also making efforts to improve their economic relations through such means as technology transfer.
2. Major Trends in the International Situation
(1) Interrelations among major countries
(a) The U.S.-Soviet relations which deteriorated following the Afghanistan and Poland issues did not show any sign of improvement in 1982 since they maintained their initial positions on these issues.
The negotiations on intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF) which started in November 1981 ended its fourth round of talks at the end of March 1983, while the Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START) launched in June 1982 terminated its third round at the end of March 1983. It seems that the two nations' positions were still wide apart.
While promoting cooperation with its allies, the United States stepped up its defense effort and demanded the Soviet Union's self-restraint on its foreign policies taking strong countermeasures such as the economic sanction that followed the martial law proclaimed in Poland in December 1981. At the same time, the United States intended to promote dialogue with the Soviet Union on arms control and other issues in which the two nations can find common interests. The United States expressed its readiness to hold a U.S.-Soviet summit meeting on condition that positive accomplishments from that meeting is guaranteed.
On the other other hand, the new Soviet regime, established after the death of General Secretary Leonid I. Brezhnev, remained cautious about the U.S. hard-line policies against Moscow, while analyzing in detail various actions taken by the Reagan administration. To promote detente in a way advantageous to it, the Soviet Union resorted to peace offensives. It supported the anti-nuclear and anti-war movements and appealed to public opinion in the West in an attempt to create apolitical gap between the United States and Europe. The first in a series of U.S.-Soviet Foreign Ministerial contacts in 1982 was held in Geneva in January when Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko and U.S. Secretary of State Haig confirmed the basic positions of their two countries to promote nuclear disarmament and dialogue for this purpose between them. They met again in June, September and October when" Foreign Minister Gromyko visited the United States to attend the United Nations General Assembly. At the occasion of the funeral for the late General Secretary Brezhnev in November, the now General Secretary Andropov and Foreign Minister Gromyko met with U.S. Vice President Bush and Secretary of State Shultz. However, these meetings did not produce any substantial result.
(b) U.S.-China relations
China harbored great caution against U.S. President Reagan's pro-Taiwan policies, and this has constituted a big barrier against the development of relations between the U.S. and China since the start of the Reagan administration. The bilateral consultations on the transfer of American arms to Taiwan were held when Assistant Secretary of State Holdridge and Vice President Bush visited China in January and May 1982, respectively. In August 1982, the two nations reached an agreement that the transfer of U.S. arms to Taiwan should not exceed the level of immediately after normalization of U.S.-China relations and that it should be gradually decreased. A joint communique to that effect was announced by the two countries. However, the somewhat chilly relations between them continued since their interpretations of the joint communique and their positions on other Taiwan issues later proved different.
Secretary Shultz's visit to China in February 1983 was aimed at promoting communication between the two countries and normalizing their chilly relations. In Beijing, Secretary Shultz held talks with Chairman Deng Xiaoping, Premier Zhao Ziyang and Foreign Minister Wu Xueqian. They agreed to make efforts to nurture mutual trust, and thus paved the way for continuous dialogue.
Despite this, discord between the two countries continued over delicate political issues such as China's membership in the Asian Development Bank, Huguang Railway bonds, the U.S. announcement of arms sales to Taiwan for fiscal 1983 and 1984, the U.S. acceptance of Chinese tennis player Hu Na who sought political asylum, and the resultant suspension of the remaining U.S.-China cultural exchange programs for 1982 and 1983 as well as China's absence from international sports events of 1983 in the U.S. Meanwhile, their economic relations showed a relatively smooth development in the fields of trade, science and technology. With regard to the U.S. policy of restricting transfer of high technology to China of which China had expressed complaint, the U.S. government announced its decision in May to include China in the same group as non-Communist countries, including Japan and India, under the Export Control Law.
(c) Sino-Soviet relations in 1982 were on a course considerably different from that in 1981, as shown by such facts as the first vice ministerial meeting in October, the Foreign Ministers' meeting on the occasion of the funeral for General Secretary Brezhnev, and the expansion of personnel exchanges, and trade and economic relations.
In March, the late General Secretary Brezhnev appealed in his public speech for the improvement of Sino-Soviet relations. A spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to it, saying that China firmly refuses the accusation against it made in Brezhnev's speech and that what China attaches importance to are the actual actions by the Russians. The spokesman added, however, that China will take note of Brezhnev's speech. The two countries later made working-level contacts, such as the Soviet Foreign Ministry's First Far Eastern Department Director Kapitsa's visit to China and the Chinese Foreign Ministry's Soviet Union and East European Affairs Department Director Yu Hongliang's visit to the Soviet Union. In September, Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Hu Yaobang revealed a more positive attitude than before toward the Soviet Union, although with some reservations, when he referred to the possibility of normalizing Sino-Soviet relations in his report to the 12th CPC National Congress.
The first vice ministerial meeting was held in Beijing from Oct. 5 to Oct. 22. The content of the talks at this meeting is not known since the two countries agreed not to disclose it. It was reported, however, that their basic positions differed. In particular the Soviet Union did not show readiness for concessions to the so-called "three conditions" presented by China-reduction of Soviet forces in the area along the Sino-Soviet border, withdrawal of Soviet forces from Mongolia and Afghanistan, and suspension of Soviet assistance to Viet Nam. At this meeting, they agreed to make the vice ministerial contacts thereafter in Moscow and Beijing alternately and the second vice ministerial talks were held in Moscow in March 1983.
Chinese Foreign Minister Huang Hua held talks with Foreign Minister Gromyko when he attended the funeral for the late General Secretary Brezhnev in November. It was announced that their meeting was held in a "candid and calm atmosphere." This was the first visit to Moscow by a Chinese cabinet minister since November 1964 when the then Chinese Premier Chou Enlai visited the Soviet capital.
Trade between the two countries was expanded, and agreements on cargo transportation and border trade were signed. Further to that, new developments took place in the form of visits to China by a Soviet team of field athletes and the Boljshoi Ballet Team and also an agreement on student exchange.
(d) The United States and European nations exchanged views on East-West economic relations at the Versailles Summit and other international meetings. Although there had been a basic agreement between the United States and European nations that political and security considerations should be given when dealing with East-West economic relations, they disagreed on specific means for that end. An international effort was made to coordinate their views, and Japan also took part in it. In November 1982, major industrialized nations of the West reached a substantial agreement to conduct specific studies in the fields of high technology, energy and credit.
Nonetheless, there is no basic disagreement among the United States and European nations on East-West relations including relations with the Soviet Union, and the necessity of a military balance between the East and the West.
(2) Situation in Poland
(a) The political situation in Poland has constituted an "axis" of East-West relations in Europe for the past two-to-three years. The Polish government stepped up its effort for "normalizing" the country after breaking down the strong resistance of its people against the martial law proclaimed on Dec. 13, 1981. On July 21, 1982, Prime Minister Jaruzelski indicated in the congress that martial law may be lifted by the end of 1982, and also announced a decision to release some political prisoners. Even since then, however, Polish people have frequently expressed their dissatisfaction with the government indirect and indirect ways. On August 31, the second anniversary of the Gdansk Agreement, for instance, anti-military-rule demonstrations were held nationwide, and demonstrators at many places clashed with security officials. The independent trade union Solidarity which, with a membership of 10 million, had been ordered under martial law to stop its activities, was outlawed on Oct. 8 when a new labor union law calling for disssolution of all existing labor unions and establishment of new unions was passed in the congress. The Solidarity underground organization appealed to workers to join demonstrations and strikes in protest against the new labor union law on Nov. 10, the second anniversary of Solidarity's formal registration. Since the government mobilized a large number of security officials on the day to block Solidarity's attempt, only small-scale demonstrations were held in Warsaw and some other cities. Since then, the anti-military-government activities by the Polish citizens have gradually declined.
With this background, the government released Solidarity leader Walesa on Nov. 13 and passed a bill for lifting martial law through the congress on Dec. 18. Martial law was suspended as of Dec. 31.
The registration of new labor unions started in January 1983, and the membership of registered unions reached 2 million by the end of March. The government tried to establish a new order by organizing prefecture-level party conferences and the first congress of the Patriotic Movement for National Reverse in May.
The Pope's visit to Poland, originally scheduled for August 1982, was called off. The Polish government sent an invitation to the Pope in March 1983, and the Pope visited Poland June 16-23.
(b) On Dec. 23, 1981, immediately after the proclamation of martial law in Poland, the U.S. government announced sanctions against that country. After discussing the Poland issue at the foreign ministers' meeting of the European Community and that of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in January 1982, major nations of the West called on Poland to immediately take actions to improve the domestic situation (such as the termination of martial law, the release of detainees, and government negotiations with the church and Solidarity), and also announced sanctions against Poland. The Western nations, while discussing the Polish situation at EC, NATO and other international forums, still maintain sanctions on the grounds that, although there are signs to indicate some improvement, there is no real improvement.
The United States suspended most-favored-nation treatment in respect of tariffs on goods from Poland in October 1982 following the introduction of Poland's new labor union law.
(3) Situation in the Middle East
(a) On June 6th, 1982, Israel launched a military incursion (the Galilee Operation) aimed, it claimed, at purging PLO forces from south Lebanon, and on August 4th, Israeli troops advanced to west Beirut. This led to the withdrawal of PLO from west Beirut by September 1st based on its agreement with Israel and Lebanon and under the supervision of a multinational force consisting of U.S., French and Italian troops. Owing in part to U.S. Secretary of State Shultz' mediation efforts continued since late April 1983, Lebanon and Israel reached an agreement on May 17th concerning the pullout of Israeli troops from Beirut. Nonetheless, Syria insisted that it would not withdraw its troops unless Israeli troops make an unconditional pullout first. On the other hand, Israel adhered to its proposal of a simultaneous withdrawal of both countries' troops. Consequently, Israeli and Syrian troops have not yet pulled out of Lebanon and continue to confront each other on the Bekaa Valley. Israel unilaterally decided in July 1983 to withdraw part of its troops from the suburb of Beirut to the Awali River in southern Lebanon for the purpose of lessening its financial burdens and damages to its military personnel.
(b) As to the Middle East peace problem, Israel's return of the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt was carried out as scheduled in April 1982. In light of such new developments as Israel's military incursion into Lebanon in June and the subsequent withdrawal of PLO from west Beirut in late August, U .S. President Reagan announced his new Middle East peace proposals on September 1st which called for (a) an immediate freeze on settlements on the West Bank and Gaza Strip and (b) self-government by the Palestinians in association with Jordan as the final form of government desirable for the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Israel immediately rejected the Reagan plan, terming it a deviation from the Camp David Accords, while the Arab moderates took a stance of not necessarily turning down the Reagan plan. The Western countries welcomed the proposals while the Soviet Union criticized it as an American plot to impose its own new order upon the Middle East.
In the meantime, the Arab nations adopted their first unified peace proposals at the 12th Arab Summit Conference held in September 1982 in Fez, Morocco. The Arab peace plan differs largely from the Reagan proposals in that the former reaffirms the PLO as the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinians and recognizes the Palestinian peoples' rights to self-determination and to creation of an independent Palestinian state. Yet, the Arab plan deserves attention in that it put forth an indication for the Arab world's recognition of Israel. Israel immediately rejected the Arab plan, maintaining it would pose a threat to its survival. But the U.S., U.K., France and other Western countries gave qualified credit to the Arab peace plan because it does not squarely refuse the Reagan proposals. On the other hand, the Soviet Union gave a positive appraisal to the Arab peace plan and on September 15th, announced the Brezhnev Peace Plan which was almost identical in content with the Arab plan.
Against the backdrop of such an Arab response, the attitude of the PLO as the principal party in the Middle East peace talks, became the focus of attention. In February 1983, the Palestinian National Council (PNC) was brought into session. Due to rivalry between moderates and hard-liners, however, the PNC failed to come out with a clear-cut attitude toward the Reagan peace plan and had to wait for the outcome of consultations with Jordan and other countries concerned. In such circumstances a meeting between King Hussein of Jordan and PLO's Arafat was held in April. At one time, it was reported that the PLO gave nod to King Hussein's participation in peace talks under the framework of the Reagan proposals. In the end, however, Arafat refused to agree on grounds that the prospects were dim that the PLO would win substantial concessions from the U.S. even if it supports the Reagan proposals. As a consequence, Jordan suspended negotiations with the PLO and announced it would not take part in the peace talks either on behalf of the Palestinians or independently. In May, rebellion against Arafat's moderate policy surfaced in the form of Fatah's internal conflict. In addition, with Syria and Libya starting to support anti-Arafat groups, chances for Middle East peace seems to have become even remoter.
(c) As to the Persian Gulf region, the Soviet military invasion into Afghanistan in 1979, the Iranian revolution and the intensification of the Iran-Iraq conflict in 1980 had a far-reaching effect on the situation there. Under these developments, the Gulf Cooperation Council was formed in 1981 and its member states reinforced their cooperative relationship gradually to the extent that the 3rd summit meeting of the GCC nations was held in November 1982. In March 1983, the first phase of the GCC' s economic cooperation accords was put into force. On the other hand, oil revenues of Arab oil-producing countries are diminishing due to the international oil supply surplus, and adverse effects of declining oil revenues on their domestic and external policies are beginning to show.
(d) Regarding the Iran-Iraq conflict, there emerged new developments in the war situation in the wake of a series of Iranian military offensives including the recapture of Khorramshahr in May 1982, which moved the main battlefields from Iranian territory to the border area in the summer of 1982. However, both countries remain largely divided in their respective positions on ceasefire and the war situation faces a deadlock in the border area with no clue being found for an early settlement of the conflict.
(e) In February 1983, the U.S. transferred part of its Mediterranean Fleet to waters off Libya to counter a growing Libyan threat against Sudan. In addition, the U.S. urgently dispatched AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) to Egypt. On the other hand, Libya sent a delegation to the Soviet Union in March and issued a joint communique to the effect that the two countries reached a basic agreement on the conclusion of a treaty of friendship and cooperation.
(4) Afghan Problem and the Situation in Southwest Asia
(a) The Soviet Union has been continuing its military intervention into Afghanistan since the end of 1979 with the deployment of some 100,000 troops in that country. Yet, resistance activities by various anti-government forces remain strong with no signs of stabilization in the situation.
Diplomatic efforts were made throughout 1982 in the United Nations and other international forums in pursuit of apolitical settlement of the Afghan problem. At the 37th UN General Assembly in November 1982, for instance, a resolution calling for foreign troops' withdrawal from Afghanistan, the fourth of its kind, was adopted. The 7th Non-Aligned Summit in New Delhi in March 1983 adopted a political declaration which is similar to the UN resolution. In such a situation the first indirect talks between the foreign ministers of Pakistan and Afghanistan through the mediation of the personal representative of the UN Secretary General was held in Geneva in June. Iran did not take part in the talks, however. The second Pakistan-Afghanistan talks were held in April 1983. On the other hand, Javier Perez de Cuellar, the UN Secretary General, exchanged views with Soviet government leaders especially about the Afghan problem on the occasion of his visit to Moscow in March 1983.
(b) As to the Southwest Asian situation, the shift in India's diplomatic posture since the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan is to bring about a profound change in this region's traditional picture of rivalry - India and the Soviet Union versus China and Pakistan. And this trend has prevailed into 1982.
(i) India and the Soviet Union are maintaining basically close relations but India has taken conspicuous moves for independent diplomacy keeping a certain distance from Moscow. India's inclination to its traditional non-alignment policy is evident in that it hosted the 7th Non-Aligned Summit.
(ii) Despite many twists and turns, India-Pakistan relations are improving as illustrated by Pakistani President Zia ul-Haq's visit to India in November and the signing of an agreement to setup the Joint Commission between the two countries in March 1983.
(iii) Indo-Chinese relations are heading for improvement as evidenced by the holding of border dispute talks in New Delhi in May 1982 and in Beijing in January 1983.
(iv) U.S.-Indian relations witnessed a substantial improvement from their previously chilly state in the wake of Indian Premier Gandhi's official visit to Washington in July.
(v) Pakistani President Zia ul-Haq's visit to the U.S. in December 1982 added fresh momentum for boosting Pakistani-U.S. relations which had been improving following the American decision in 1981 to increase military and economic assistance to that country.
vi) The South Asian region tended to lack unity in the past. However, the concept of regional cooperation there began to make steady progress. The foreign ministerial conference of the countries in the region was held in August 1983.
(5) Situation in Asia
(a) The Republic of Korea marked the second anniversary of the establishment of the 5th Republic in March 1983. In 1982, a series of major incidents jolted the nation's political world one after another from March through May. But President Chun Doo Hwan managed to tide over the crisis by reshuffling his Cabinet and the ruling party leadership. On the other hand, President Chun made strenuous efforts to improve the domestic political climate by lifting the curfew in January 1982, easing restrictions against persons whose political activities were subjected to regulation in February 1983 and some other measures. On the diplomatic front, the government scored major successes in its active diplomatic activities including President Chun's visit to African nations and Canada in August 1982, Indonesian President Soeharto's visit to Seoul in October, Prime Minister Kim Sang Hyup's visit to three Latin American countries in December and the hosting of the Inter-Parliamentary Union's (IPU) Conference in Seoul. In the wake of the hijacking of a Chinese jetliner in May 1983, the director general of the Civil Aviation Administration of China visited Seoul for talks with South Korean officials over the affair and thus a direct contact between government officials of China and South Korean materialized.
In North Korea, the succession of power to Kim Il Sung's son-Kim Jong Il-is believed to be making progress. In June 1983, Kim Jong Il made an unofficial visit to China. As to the economic situation, President Kim devoted a large portion of his New Year message to economic buildup indicating great emphasis on this sphere. But Kim's address did not refer to any specific progress in economic development. On the diplomatic front, North Korea actively promoted the non-aligned diplomacy. As to the North-South dialogue, however, the Republic of Korea and North Korea went no further than to put forward their respective unification proposals unilaterally and the prospect remains dim for the resumption of their dialogue.
(b) As regards the Cambodian problem, the three anti-Vietnamese resistance groups-Prince Sihanouk's group, Son Sann's group and Khmer Rouge-reached an agreement on the establishment of the tripartite coalition government and signed the Declaration of the Formation of the Coalition Government of Democratic Kampuchea in June 1982. This agreement was reached after many twists and turns in their negotiations, continued since the get-together of the groups' top leaders in Singapore in 1981. In the declaration of the coalition government's formation in July 1982, Prince Sihanouk was appointed president, while Khieu Samphan and Son Sann were named vice president and prime minister, respectively. At the 6th Indochinese foreign ministerial conference in July 1982, Viet Nam made it known that it would withdraw part of its troops stationed in Cambodia and proposed the convening of the International Conference on Southeast Asia. Vietnamese Foreign Minister Nguyen Co Thach visited ASEAN nations in July and October of 1982 and in his talks with his counterparts in these countries, he reiterated Viet Nam's basic policy of not complying with the demanded withdrawal of all the troops from Cambodia until the threat from China is eliminated. He also made it known that Viet Nam would pursue a fait accompli in Cambodia through its continued support for the Heng Samrin regime. Due to Viet Nam's adherence to its own stance, no progress was made toward the solution of the Cambodian problem. At the 37th UN General Assembly in October 1982, the formation of the Democratic Kampuchea coalition government served as a booster of international support for Democratic Kampuchea and its representation at the UN was maintained for the fourth time with the support of 90 countries, up 11 from the previous year. On the other hand, the Sino-Soviet deputy foreign ministerial conference was resumed in October 1982 and on this occasion, China cited the Soviet suspension of its support for the Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia as one of the three conditions for normalizing Sino-Soviet relations. China thereby showed its deep concern with the Cambodian problem. In February 1983, Viet Nam organized the First Indochinese summit meeting in Vientiane and announced that it would make partial withdrawal of its troops yearly from Cambodia in due consideration to the security of Cambodia and that it would pullout part of the troops in 1983 as it had in the previous year. At the Non-Aligned Summit in New Delhi in March 1983, it was decided regarding the problem of Cambodia's representation to leave the seat of that country vacant as had been the case at the previous summit in Havana.
(6) Situation in Latin America
In 1982, the focus of attention in Latin America was on tension-ridden Central America, along with the Falkland Islands (Malvinas) dispute between Great Britain and Argentina and the problem of accumulated debts of Latin American countries.
The Central American situation remains tension-ridden since the latter half of 1982 due in large part to the situation in El Salvador and deteriorating relations between Nicaragua and its neighboring countries. Out of a keen sense of crisis over this situation, the four member countries of the "Contadora Group"-Mexico, Venezuela, Panama and Colombia-launched a regional endeavor for the peaceful solution of the Central American problem in January 1983.
In April 1982, the conflicts arose between Argentina and Great Britain over the territorial sovereignty of the Falkland Islands (Malvinas). Almost all the Latin American countries supported the Argentine stance. At the beginning, the U.S. attempted to mediate between the two countries from a neutral position but later took a pro-Britain attitude, causing many Latin American countries to become critical of the U.S. Yet, the U.S. government supported the resolution submitted jointly by the Latin American countries to the UN General Assembly in November that year. In addition, President Reagan made an official visit to Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica and Honduras, beginning late November, as part of the American efforts to mend ties with Latin America which turned sour in the wake of the Falkland dispute. And the American attempt has led to restoration of relations with this region to a considerable degree.
Latin American countries have been fraught with growing external debt problems against the backgrounds of a slumping world economy and the subsequent slowdown in the growth of their exports, low prices of primary products, increased financial burdens resulting from high interest rates prevalent on an international scale and some other factors. In August 1982, Mexico forwarded a request for a moratorium on its debt payments, causing the debt problem to come to the fore. This situation later spread to such countries as Brazil, Venezuela and Argentina. Faced with the Latin American countries' financial crisis, international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank for International Settlement (BIS) as well as a consortium of private banks have been enforcing relief measures. But their efforts still face great hardships ahead.
(7) Situation in Africa
One of the major events in the African situation in 1982 was the failure of the Organization of African Unity (OAU) to convene its 19th summit conference twice that year due to divergencies of views among member states. The proposed summit was called off in August over the West Sahara problem and again in November over the representation problem of Chad. As to the problem of Namibia, progress was made toward its independence as the Western contact group, consisting of the U.S., Great Britain, France, West Germany and Canada strengthened its activities. As regards the withdrawal of Cuban troops from Angola, negotiations still continue among the U.S., South Africa and Angola, no agreement having been reached among the parties concerned. In Chad ridden by the civil war, former Defense Minister Hissene Habre placed almost the entire country under his control and was inaugurated president in October 1982. In the "Horn of Africa" region, Ethiopia made the military incursion into Somalia at the Ogaden area in July, increasing tensions in the region. On the other hand, Ethiopia and Sudan reached the Khartoum Agreement in May to settle their border dispute in a major step toward improving their bilateral relations. In addition, Egypt and Sudan signed a comprehensive agreement geared to strengthen bilateral relations in diplomatic, security, economic and other fields.
As to relations with countries outside Africa, Libyan leader Col. Khadafy visited East European countries, North Korea, China and some other countries and concluded treaties of friendship and cooperation with some of these countries against the backdrop of Libya's deteriorating relations with the U.S. Libya also reached a basic agreement with the Soviet Union to conclude the bilateral treaty of friendship and cooperation in March 1983. On the other hand, Chinese Premier Zhao Ziyang made an official tour of some African countries from December 1982 through January 1983 and established diplomatic relations with Angola in January 1983 as part of China's efforts to improve relations with Africa.
In the meantime, Morocco-U.S. relations continue to improve on account of their increased military cooperative ties. In May, King Hassan of Morocco visited the U.S., and signed an agreement which guarantees American use of military facilities in Morocco.
In May, Zaire and Israel agreed to restore diplomatic relations suspended since 1973.
(8) Trends in the International Economy
(a) The world economy remained in the doldrums as a whole throughout 1982. There were some bright spots such as the subsidence of inflation and a downturn trend of interest rates. Yet, business stagnation and unemployment in industrially-advanced countries were serious, as was evidenced by jobless rates in excess of 10 percent in the U.S. and many other countries. World trade in 1982 dipped 6 percent from the previous year to $1.84 trillion and still shows little signs of improvement. Under such gloomy circumstances, sentiment of trade protectionism gained momentum in many countries. In the U.S., for instance, the local-content bill and reciprocity bills were submitted to Congress. In October, the French government obliged foreign importers to submit documents written in French in seeking customs clearance and also limited the site of customs for VTRs to the town of Poitiers. A number of bilateral trade problems and disputes erupted over agricultural products, steel and other items among the U.S., the EC and Japan and many of these problems remain unsolved.
On the other hand, non-oil-producing developing countries are faced with a serious economic crisis on account of sluggish exports due to the world economic stagnancy and inappropriate domestic economic management. The combined current-account deficits of non-oil-producing developing countries soared to $87 billion in 1982, while the cumulative external debts of the developing world, both medium-term and long-term, were estimated to be some $626 billion, posing a potent source of instability for the economies of the advanced industrial countries and for the entire world economy as well.
(b) Amidst such situations, various multilateral consultations were continued to counter the growing pressures from trade protectionism. At the ministerial council of the OECD in May, agreement was reached on the direction and means of the work on the "trade problems in the 1980s." At the Versailles Summit held in June, the participating countries reaffirmed their commitment to the free-trade system under the rules of GATT. At the GATT ministerial conference in November, the political declaration and other agreements were worked out to oblige member nations to refrain from taking any trade measures inconsistent with GATT principles.
(c) As to the North-South problems, the G77 countries endorsed and forwarded their draft resolution calling for the early launching of Global Negotiations (GN) in March. At the Versailles summit meeting in June, the seven developed countries agreed on a draft resolution of their own after the U.S. conceded to the urge from some other summit countries and agreed to the launching of GN provided that the independence of the specialized agencies was guaranteed. The G77 member states announced they could not accept the amendments and submitted their revised resolution which won the endorsement at the G77 ministerial conference in October. Consultations were continued on the occasion of the 37th UN General Assembly for the purpose of initiating the GN but no agreement was reached.
(d) In the field of energy, oil-producing countries witnessed depression of crude oil sales in 1982 due to a steep decline in oil demand and high levels of crude stockpiles in consuming countries. Alarmed by a marked falloff of crude prices on spot markets in early 1982, OPEC convened an extraordinary meeting in March in Vienna in an attempt to maintain price levels and agreed to retain the official price of the Marker Crude and set the production ceiling. In spite of this agreement, some OPEC member states began to boost outputs in excess of their respective quotas toward the summer, thus fueling internal strife among OPEC members. The OPEC's internal confrontation could not be solved at the next extraordinary meeting in July. At the annual meeting in December, OPEC somehow managed to set the production ceiling at 18.5 million barrels per day for 1983. But it failed to allocate the quotas for each member state.
On the other hand, industrially advanced countries continued efforts to economize on energy and develop non-oil alternative energy sources. At the meeting of the governing board at ministerial level of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in May, it was reaffirmed that the member states should continue to pursue policies to bring about a more balanced "energy mix" in due consideration to uncertainties inherent in the medium-and long-term prospects of the energy situation. The declaration of the Versailles Summit in June pointed to the need for continuing efforts to economize on energy and to promote alternative sources including nuclear energy and coal.
(e) The 3rd UN Conference on the Law of the Sea, started in 1973 for the purpose of establishing a new comprehensive order for the use of the seas and oceans, finally adopted the Convention on the Law of the Sea in April. The Conference was held in December in Jamaica for signing the Final Act and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea was opened for signature. Japan signed the Convention in February 1983.