Section 10. Situation in Europe
1. East-West relations in Europe
In September 1971, the Quadripartite Agreement to set up a broad framework of control with respect to the Berlin problem was signed by the United States, Britain, France and the Soviet Union. Later, in December, detailed agreements between the Federal Republic of Germany and the GDR and also between West Berlin and the GDR were signed, marking great progress in easing tensions in Europe. Since the Final Protocol of the Agreement on Berlin is to be signed simultaneously with the ratification of the German-Soviet Treaty and the German-Polish Treaty, they will contribute greatly toward easing tensions in Europe if the Bundestag in Bonn ratifies them. Major issues in future East-West relations in Europe will probably be (1) the holding of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, (2) the problem of mutual and balanced reduction of forces and (3) the participation of both German states in the United Nations and the problem of recognizing the GDR.
(1) Signing of Four-Power Agreement on Berlin
The ambassadors of the United States, Britain, France and the Soviet Union signed, at a meeting in the house of the Allied Control Council in West Berlin on September 3, the Quadripartite Agreement reached at the 33rd meeting on August 23. The Brandt administration, which was established in the autumn of 1969, carried out its active "Ostopolitik" and, as its result, signed the German-Soviet Treaty in August 1970 and the German-Polish Treaty in December. They were regarded as having established a new relationship of coexistence based on respect for the status quo and the nonuse of force in East-West relations in Europe. Because the subsequent talks among the four powers for a settlement of the Berlin issue, which the Federal Republic of Germany made a precondition for its ratification of the two treaties, made little progress, the signing of the Berlin Agreement can be said to have marked great progress in East-West relations in Europe.
(2) Signing of detailed agreements on Berlin
The Quadripartite Agreement on Berlin signed on September 3 provided for conducting negotiations (A) between the Federal Republic of Germany and the GDR concerning traffic and (B) between West Berlin and the GDR concerning visits (by citizens of Berlin to East Berlin and East Germany). Negotiations on the detailed arrangements were opened soon after the signing of the Quadripartite Agreement. Although the negotiations on the two matters reportedly ran into difficulty, rapid progress was made since around the time of General Secretary Brezhnev's visit to East Berlin in late October on his way home from a visit to France. The detailed agreements between the two German authorities and between West Berlin and the GDR were finally signed (December 17 and December 20).
(3) Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE)
The possibility of holding CSCE increased as a result of progress in the Berlin issue, which had been made a preconditioning by the West for a preliminary conference of CSCE.
It seems that the East European countries coordinated their views on the proposed conference at a meeting of East European leaders (Warsaw Pact Political Consultative Committee) held in Prague on January 25 and 26, 1972. It is expected that they will assume a positive attitude in order to realize the proposed conference at an early date. However, it is still undecided what will be discussed concretely, including whether the problem of mutual reduction of forces in Europe will be put on the agenda of the conference. There reportedly is a difference of expectations among the East European countries on the conference. Meantime, some West European countries became more cautious toward the Soviet Union because of its attitude toward the Indo-Pakistan War, and there will be considerable difficulty before the proposed conference can be held.
2. Soviet Union
(1) Internal politics
(A) After the 24th Congress of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU), the present regime began wrestling with the enforcement of various decisions taken at the Congress, which gave strong priority to the economy. It is believed that the policy of giving priority to the economy stems from the belief that success in the economic field will form a basis for stability of the socialist system of not only the Soviet Union, but also of other East European countries. It is also believed that the Brezhnev regime's basic policy line in domestic administration will remain unchanged for some time to come.
The Soviet economy is being pushed forward to achieve such objectives as elevated productive efficiency, greater technological progress, and sustained high growth in all economic sectors, the solidification of the material and technical foundation of agriculture and further improvement of the national welfare. It seems that lack of new investments and the inefficient operation of equipment, which has traditionally characterized the Soviet economy, still exist. Although production of automatic machinery and tools and passenger cars conspicuously increased in the field of industrial production, there was no prominent change in the production of consumer materials despite the emphasis put on the expansion of production at the party congress. However, it seems that considerable efforts have been made to improve the national level of consumption, as is evidenced by a recent series of price cuts for radio, television and other electrical appliances and also by the decision of the CPSU Central Committee to expand the production of goods for the masses and emphasize quality improvement. It is expected that the Soviet Union will follow a policy of making efforts to improve the people's livelihood, while continuing to attach importance to heavy industry. It is likely that even greater efforts will be made to improve the national consumption level.
(B) At the party congress, candidate members V. V. Grishin, D. A. Kunayev and V. V. Shcherbitsky were elected members of the Politburo of the Central Committee, and Secretary F. D. Kulakov was also elected a member of the bureau to serve concurrently as a secretary. In July, G. I. Voronov, chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, was dismissed as a member of the Political Bureau and Secretary M. S. Solomentsev succeeded him. This personnel reshuffle strongly reflected the influence of Secretary Brezhnev. As a result of the selection of the new Central Committee members and candidate members, the relative importance of full-time party officers greatly increased while that of officers from government agencies greatly decreased. This probably proves the present regime's policy of increasing party leadership.
Since the party congress, the Brezhnev regime regarded the achievement of the decisions taken at the congress, particularly economic targets, as the greatest task of its domestic administration. It, therefore, has stressed the importance of this undertaking and has taken a positive posture toward trying to improve the people's welfare and cultural living standards. Making use of various occasions, the government has continuously stressed the need to strengthen social order and the leadership of leaders and key figures in the mass communications media and also has emphasized their great responsibility. At the same time, it still has emphasized the need to exercise caution against anti-socialist propaganda by the West and also the need to raise socialistic morality.
(C) It appears that anti-establishment elements continued their activities tenaciously despite various forms of control by the authorities, and the present regime still persists in its attitude of increasing its control over anti-establishment elements. The trial of the Bukovsky case can be said to be one such example. The situation in the literary world was generally calm, and the convention of the Soviet Writers' Union in June 1971 ended without any serious trouble. It seems that the authorities concerned wished to maintain a neutral attitude on the principle of refraining from criticizing writers excessively, while paying enough attention to the activities of progressive writers. That Twardovsky who was discharged as editor of Novy Mir in February 1970 was awarded the National Prize in November 1971 appears to have reflected such an attitude taken by the authorities concerned. However, the authorities concerned have taken a stern attitude toward A. Solzenitsyn ever since they criticized the West for using the Nobel Prize for political purposes when he received the Nobel Prize. The Literary Newspaper in January 1971 strongly criticized the publication in the West of his new work "August 1914".
(2) Diplomacy
(A) The Soviet Union carried out positive diplomatic activities in 1971. After the party congress in April 1971, Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau and French Foreign Minister Maurice Schumann visited the Soviet Union in May, followed by Chancellor Willy Brandt of the Federal Republic of Germany in September. The Soviet Union concluded a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation between the Soviet Union and the United Arab Republic (May) and a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation between the Soviet Union and India (August). Its three top leaders -Brezhnev, Kosygin and Podgorny-carried out active visit diplomacy, especially after progress in Sino-American relations became conspicuous in the summer.
(B) Behind such intensified diplomatic activities reportedly lies the Soviet Union's aim to perpetuate the status quo in Europe and ease tensions in Europe by holding the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe at an early date. The diplomatic offensive by the People's Republic of China, which became particularly remarkable recently, and its enhanced international position is said to be also a factor in the intensification of Soviet diplomatic activities.
It seems that the Soviet Union's concern for the time being is the holding of a pan-European security conference, as revealed at the meeting of the Warsaw Treaty Organization's Political Consultative Committee in Prague in January 1972. It is also believed that the Soviet Union will try to promote closer relations with other East European countries throughout the Warsaw Treaty Organization and the COME-CON setup.
(C) The importance of its relations with the United States still remains unchanged in Soviet diplomacy, and the two countries continued throughout 1971 various negotiations in the military field, including the SALT talks, and the cooperative aspect in their bilateral relations became conspicuous, including the activation of moves to negotiate bilateral economic and technical cooperation.
Simultaneously with the intensification of its diplomacy toward Western Europe, the Soviet Union also carried out an active diplomatic offensive in its relations with the Near and Middle East and Asia, As already mentioned, it signed the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation with Egypt (May) and the Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation with India (August), while Premier Kosygin visited Algeria and Morocco (October) and President Podgorny visited Hanoi (October), When the Indo-Pakistani War broke out in December, the Soviet Union supported India and assumed a posture of supporting the independence of Bangladesh from the standpoint of supporting national liberation struggles. In January 1971, the Soviet Union recognized Bangladesh, and it can be said that the Soviet Union's influence in the Indian subcontinent has greatly increased.
(D) General Secretary Brezhnev's address to the 15th All-Union Congress attracted attention as a manifestation of the Soviet Union's current diplomatic policy to cope with changes in the international situation after the party congress on March 20, 1972. Since the speech was made after President Nixon's visit to the People's Republic of China and before his visit to the Soviet Union in May, and also in view of the difficulty being faced by the Bundestag over the ratification of the Russo-German and German-Polish treaties which formed the basis of diplomacy to ease tensions in the West, it seems that the Soviet Union tried to clarify its external policy at that time. The Brezhnev speech expressed concretely the Soviet Union's stand on its relations with the EC, the Federal Republic of Germany, the United States, the People's Republic of China, Japan and also its concept for a collective security system for Asia.
3. Eastern Europe
(1) General situation
In the East European countries, there were some developments worthy of attention in the domestic affairs of individual countries and also in the current of international politics (especially the Soviet Union's policy toward Western Europe and its policy of easing tensions between the East and West) and also in the Soviet Union's policy toward the East European countries, namely, cooperation and unity with the socialist countries of Europe.
The "post-Tito" problem which surfaced in Yugoslavia, the Polish United Worker's Party convention which did its best to firmly establish the Gierek setup and the achievement of normalization in Czechoslovakia by holding general elections in a stable manner can be mentioned as major domestic events in the East European countries.
Moves deserving note in the international political arena included Romania which carried out an independent diplomacy, Albania which played a very great role in admitting the People's Republic of China to the U.N., Yugoslavia which invited General Secretary Brezhnev, Hungary which acted on behalf of the Soviet Union, and the German Democratic Republic which played a very great role in reaching agreement on the Berlin issue, which can be called a basis for putting an end to the postwar setup in Europe.
(2) German Democratic Republic
The year 1971 was perhaps the most important year for the German Democratic Republic since its establishment in 1949. The year saw such events as the retirement of First Secretary Walter Ulbricht (May), the party convention (June), Quadripartite Agreement (the agreement on setting a broad framework of control over Berlin) (September) the People's Chamber elections (November), and the conclusion of the detailed agreements on Berlin between the German Democratic Republic and the Federal Republic of Germany (December). The retirement of Secretary Ulbricht, who ruled the GDR for 22 years, probably symbolized that that country's theory of a "socialistic human community" (a theory of community that the socialistic society at the present stage, which will ultimately develop into a communist society, has a unique social structure of its own. It differs from the concept of a "socialistic community" advocated by the Soviet Union and other East European countries which stresses solidarity among the socialist countries) had been compelled to recede and the GDR had come to act in concert with other East European countries. The agreement reached in principle between the East and West on the Berlin issue was taken as indicating that the German Democratic Republic had been faithfully following the Soviet Union's Europe policy.
In the domestic field, the Government announced plans to increase the supply of consumer goods and improve their quality, as embodied in its new five-year plan, and meet the wishes of the people by increasing housing construction and taking other measures. It also had a direct dialogue with a wide segment of the people during the preparatory period and the general elections in November. These were regarded as direct and indirect effects of the December incident in Poland, and a trend similar to Polish First Secretary Edward Gierek's way of doing things, which is to hold a dialogue with the people, has developed. As in other East European countries, control of ideology and thought was tightened in every facet of society. In this move one can detect that one factor was the need to consider relations with the Federal Republic of Germany. This factor was not seen in other countries. It can be said that the GDR tried to maintain its independence as much as possible in its relations with the Federal Republic, in a situation where it could maintain relative stability in Eastern Europe because of its economic power, as long as the party and the people of the Democratic Republic supported its firm, ideology and consistent policy toward West Germany. Probably for this purpose, the German Democratic Republic attempted to gain admission to the U.N. and other international organizations at an early date and took liberalization measures in January 1972 in its relations with the East European countries of Poland and Czechoslovakia, whereby East German citizens were allowed to enter these countries merely by presenting identity cards. It also admitted West Berliners across the wall in Berlin during the Easter season for the first time in six years. All this is regarded as consistent with the Soviet Union's intention of providing indirect assistance for the Brandt regime, whose chances of obtaining ratification of the Russo-German and German-Polish treaties, which form the basis of its ostpolitik, were precarious.
(3) Yugoslavia
The greatest event concerning Yugoslavia's national setup in 1971 was the amendment of its constitution (promulgated and put into force on June 30). The constitutional reform, with the creation of a Federal Presidium (a collective presidential system) and the decentralization of power (enlarged rights of self-government of member Republics) as the two key points, was, of course, intended for the "post-Tito" period. However, in the course of debate on the constitutional reform, a conflict of interests, especially a conflict of economic interests including the ethnical antagonism between the Republics of Croatia and Serbia, and the struggle for Party leadership, became evident. Late in November it developed into a political strike at Zagreb University in the Republic of Croatia, It was followed by the arrest of students in the wake of the strike, and President Tito's censure of Croatian party leaders which culminated in the resignation of Mika Tripalo (a member of the Federal Presidium and the Executive Bureau of the Communist League of Yugoslavia) and other important leaders. The party's annual conference was held at the end of January 1972 and the situation was saved at last thanks to President Tito's authority and prestige. However, it still seems uncertain how the "post-Tito" problem will develop. In its relations with the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia welcomed Secretary Brezhnev in September and Russo-Yugoslavian relations improved a little. However, it is possible that the Soviet Union, which closely watches the situation in Yugoslavia, for the time being, may take some special measures toward Yugoslavia as part of its policy toward the Balkans, depending on future developments of the situation in Yugoslavia.
(4) Other East European countries
(A) The Polish Communist Party held its convention in December 1971, and during the preparatory period of the convention, it removed from important party and government posts elements belonging to the Gomulka and Moczar factions, who were believed opposed to the present leadership. It thus succeeded in making the people share responsibility and obligations by reflecting their opinions in politics, and the party convention ended without trouble. It is believed that the Gierek regime has been firmly established both in the party and the government through the general elections in March 1972.
(B) In Czechoslovakia, such mass-mobilization events as the party convention (May), the 50th anniversary of the founding of the party (October) and general elections (November) took place one after another without any serious incident. It can be said that the Husak leadership's "normalization" policy line has become firmly established. However, as far as measures against the intellectuals were concerned, mass arrests were made starting around November, and this shows that "normalization" has not made smooth progress in this field and it still remains a long-term problem.
(C) In Romania, a campaign to strengthen ideology was carried out on a large scale in and after July 1971 from the point of view that it was necessary to raise the level of the people's awareness in order to cope with changes in the social structure caused by the modernization of industry. First, Secretary Ceausescu's position at home has become increasingly unshakable. In foreign relations, Secretary Ceausescu visited China (June), an event which signified the culmination of its "independent diplomacy." However, Romania apparently became more prudent in its independent diplomacy in order not to irritate the Soviet Union more than necessary as external pressure on Romania increased, including the boycott of Romania at the meeting between Russian and East European leaders in the Crimea. 'Romania made positive efforts to achieve its independence from COMECON in its fundamental belief that there can be no political independence without economic independence. Secretary Ceausescu visited eight African countries for many days from mid-March 1972, and this was also regarded as part of Romania's independent diplomacy.
(D) In Hungary, a plural candidate system was introduced in the general elections in April, and much of the central government's authority was delegated to local governments in a reform of the local self-government system. The position of First Secretary Kadar, who continues the posture of observing the broad framework of a planned socialist economy and giving the people as much freedom as possible within that framework, is very stable. On the basis of its domestic stability, Hungary in the field of diplomacy had enough latitude to speak on behalf of the Soviet Union when it judged it more advantageous for itself to act in concert with the Soviet Union, It carried out diplomatic activities based on peaceful coexistence with countries with different social systems, while regarding unity with other Warsaw Treaty members as a basic consideration of its diplomacy. That it allowed Cardinal Jozsef Mindszenty, who had been seeking refuge in the American Embassy in Budapest since the Hungarian upheaval, to leave Hungary in September 1971 can be regarded as one such example.
(E) In Bulgaria, the party held its convention in April and general elections took place in June. In July, the new National Assembly elected Party First Secretary Todor Zhivkov the first chairman of the State Council (head of state). In the diplomatic field, Secretary Zhivkov, in his address to the party convention, eulogized the Soviet Union as "the sun and the air for Bulgaria." In view of the fact that General Secretary Brezhnev was welcomed enthusiastically by the whole nation when he visited Bulgaria in April and September, Bulgaria seems to be a supreme example of a country with which the Soviet Union had no trouble.
(F) Albania acted as a spokesman for the People's Republic of China in the international community so much so that people said "one should listen to Radio Tirana if one wants to learn the real intentions of the People's Republic of China." Its role culminated in the adoption by the United Nations of the Albanian resolution concerning China's participation in that body. It has consistently followed an uncompromisingly pro-Chinese diplomatic policy line since 1961, and it stressed, at the party convention in November 1971, "the strengthening of the policy line friendly to China and also the intensification of the struggle against imperialism and revisionism." It is believed, however, that Albania's relative value will inevitably decline now that the People's Republic of China has returned to the international community, and Albania seems to be inclined to carry out a policy of maintaining broader relations with as many countries as possible. Its silence on the Nixon visit to China showed its embarrassment and displeasure, and its future relations with the People's Republic of China, relative to its relations with the Soviet Union, should be carefully followed.
4. Western Europe
(1) General situation
As regards the West European countries, Britain's Northern Ireland problem became serious, with acts of terrorism against British troops becoming brutal in 1971 and through the first half of 1972, Meantime, Italy had to take ballots for the largest number of times in its postwar history in the presidential election, leaving behind a deep split between the conservative and reformist parties. A tendency of stagflation also developed in various countries. It can be said, however, that the domestic situation in each country was generally calm. It can also be said that developments in East-West relations and moves toward the integration of Europe, which were discussed in Section 1, were of significance throughout the year.
(2) Britain
In Britain, strikes swept the country early in 1971, and prices rose in the wake of wage increases. Although government measures succeeded to a considerable extent, there were such dark aspects on the domestic scene as unemployment, which reached the highest level in the postwar years, and increasingly brutal acts of terrorism against British troops in Northern Ireland. In its external relations, moves were made to improve Anglo-French relations, and Britain's policy toward Europe made progress, as evidenced by the conclusion of the negotiations for its participation in the EC.
(3) Federal Republic of Germany
In Germany, the Brandt Government, in its second year in power, survived state elections, including one involving West Berlin, without much difficulty, and the stability of the coalition government of the Social-Democrats and the Free Democrats increased partly because of the success of its ostpolitik. In the economic field, however, consumer prices and wages continued to rise amid a recession, and it is said that the people will most likely begin criticizing the Government if the tendency of stagflation continues.
(4) France
The domestic situation in France was comparatively calm throughout the year. It can be said that the Pompidou Government has improved its stability partly because of its well-calculated realistic measures.
The French economy has steadily recovered because of the Government's powerful economic reconstruction policies carried out since 1969. Despite the external factor of international currency unrest, the French economy in 1971 fared comparatively well and remained stable throughout the year with respect to production and exports.
(5) Italy
The year 1971 was a year of political instability and economic stagnation for Italy. Especially, Italy had to take ballots 23 times in 16 days in the presidential election at the end of 1971, the largest number ever in its postwar history, thereby leaving behind a deep split between the conservative and reformist parties.
In the economic field, its real growth rate dropped greatly, and it seems to be difficult to improve the situation partly because of the fear of cost inflation.
(6) Relations among West European countries
Despite some conflict over the monetary problem, moves to strengthen and expand solidarity among various countries through the EC and NATO became fairly conspicuous. The EC made particularly great progress during 1971. Negotiations for admission of Britain into the EC had been conducted since July 1970 with a view to reaching agreement in June 1971. At the sixth Council of Ministers meeting in Brussels (May 11-13), agreement was reached on such problems as Britain's financial share, followed by agreement reached in principle between the leaders of Britain and France on European policy as a whole at their talks (May 20 and 21). Thus the final obstacle to Britain's participation in the EC was removed. Later, Britain approved its participation in the EC (at the end of October) and, on January 22, 1972, the members of the EC-France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg-signed with Britain, Ireland, Denmark and Norway the treaty to admit these four countries into the EC. The newly admitted countries are required to take domestic procedures to ratify the treaty and the expanded the EC is scheduled to make an official start on January 1, 1973. Such progress in the integration of Europe is expected to exert a great influence on future international politics.