Chapter 1. Developments in the World
Section 1. Characteristics of the Period
1. A year of changes
The year 1971 was one in which the most extensive changes occurred in postwar diplomatic history. The East-West confrontation, the basic framework of international politics that has been maintained for over a quarter of a century after the war, was transfigured at least outwardly, and concrete steps were taken toward the construction of a new international order. Changes occurred not only in the arena of international politics but also in the international economy. The world economic order which has been consistently maintained in the postwar years was more than a little disrupted. Naturally, Japan could not escape the effects of these changes in both the political and economic arenas.
2. Moves toward multi-polarization
One change in the international political arena was the pronounced trend toward the multi-polarization of international relations. After concluding the Cultural Revolution, the People's Republic of China strove to strengthen its domestic structure and, at the same time, intensified its diplomatic activities, such as efforts to adjust its relations in succession with Canada, Italy and other countries, thereby gradually increasing its influence in the international political arena. The importance of that country in international politics was recognized from, a new standpoint as U.S. President Richard Nixon announced on July 15, 1971, his plan to visit Peking. As a result of the vote on the Chinese representation issue taken by the U.N. General Assembly on October 25, that country's participation in the United Nation's was decided. President Nixon's visit to China was realized late in February 1972. The U.S.-China Joint Communique resulting from that meeting clarified that while recognizing the different positions of the two nations, they were advancing from their past relationship tinged by "confrontation" into a relationship of coexistence and of confrontation and dialogue among the three powers of the United States, the People's Republic of China and the Soviet Union.
Together with such changes involving China, the rise of Japan's international position became more clearly evident. The international monetary problem which had continued to smolder over the past few years was one of the important problems facing the world. Japan played a significant role in the temporary solution of this problem through the multilateral realignment of the major world currencies at the end of 1971, thereby proving that it has a great influence on the world economy. This country's growing national strength centering on economic power is becoming the focus of greater interest and attention in the world. With this fact as background, it can be said that Japan has been increasing its influence in the international political arena.
In Europe, the development and expansion of the European Communities was remarkable, coupled with the growth of the economic power of West European countries. Especially, the long-pending problem of admitting Britain and other countries to the EC was solved, and it is expected that the EC, which is to expand from six countries to 10 countries in the course, will grow in the future into a large economic community comparable to the United States and the Soviet Union. At the same time, the European countries are adjusting their positions so that they can gradually take joint action politically, and Europe's relative importance in world politics is increasing.
Thus, it was noted that aside from the United States and the Soviet Union, the positions of Japan, the People's Republic of China, the European countries and various other regions have been enhanced. Of course, it goes without saying that the international position of these countries and regions is different from that of the superpowers of the United States and the Soviet Union. But the world of the past centering around the United States and the Soviet Union has changed greatly, and it can be said that an age of multi-polarization, in which many countries, together with the United States and the Soviet Union, will have many options and exert diverse influences, is arriving.
3. Search for a relaxation of tensions
Relations among countries in 1971 became fluid as international relations became multi-polarized as mentioned above. In the meantime, there was an intermingling of moves to promote the relaxation of tensions and of those to maintain or intensify tensions. There were also moves by smaller countries that sought to find self-reliance by disengaging themselves from the conflicting interests of the big powers.
U.S. President Nixon's visit to China, in particular, was intended to open a dialogue in the relationship of confrontation that had continued for many years between the United States and China with the hope of preventing an intensification of tensions in Asia. President Nixon's plan to visit the Soviet Union can also be regarded as being intended to confirm, together with other purposes, the relationship of coexistence between the United States and the Soviet Union. However, there still remain several insurmountable gulfs between the two countries with respect to political ideas, social systems and national objectives. Relations between the two countries saw an increase in the factors of tension, such as the buildup of Soviet nuclear war potential and the advance of the Soviet Navy into the Indian and the Pacific Ocean.
Relations between China and the Soviet Union have been characterized by two aspects-avoiding an aggravation of State relations while confronting each other over ideology and Party relations. It seems, however, that their confrontation intensified around the time of the Indo-Pakistan War, and it has become more difficult to expect any major progress even in State relations.
In Europe, more energetic efforts, continued from the preceding year, were made toward a relaxation of tensions between the East and the West, and great progress was made toward the solution of the Berlin problem. Besides this, a number of noteworthy moves were taken in connection with the problem of holding an all-European security conference and also in connection with the plan for a balanced and mutual reduction of military forces.
These moves by the major powers affected other areas in various ways as a matter of course. And it was in Asia, in particular, that the effects had their strongest impact.
In the Korean Peninsula, while both North Korea and South Korea were in a situation where they found it difficult to respond immediately to moves toward the relaxation of tensions in Asia, efforts were made toward starting a dialogue, such as the talks between the respective Red Cross societies with the object of searching for missing family members.
The Vietnam War as a whole continued in a state of lull, although there were temporary intensifications of the fighting, such as the incursion of South Vietnamese troops into Laos in February 1971 and the Communist offensive on the Plain of Jarres in November. However, the military situation has intensified since the latter half of March 1972. Although efforts were made toward a relaxation of tensions, such as peace proposals offered by both sides, the improvement of relations between the United States and China has failed to contribute greatly to the immediate promotion of peace-making, and the Paris talks were once again suspended in March 1972.
Relations between India and Pakistan, which had been tense for some time, developed into armed conflict toward the end of 1971, and ended with the birth of the People's Republic of Bangladesh. Although the conflict was not directly touched off by the multi-polarization of international relations, it is difficult to deny the fact that the influence of the United States, China and the Soviet Union was strongly reflected throughout the progress of the conflict.
In Southeast Asia, the five ASEAN member countries-the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore and Indonesia-declared their "neutralization" in November 1971 and called on other countries to respect their position. Such a move can be said to reflect their desire to seek and secure their own position in the multi-polarized world in which the influences of such major countries as the United States, China and the Soviet Union interact.
It is still not clear how the multi-polarization and the trend toward the relaxation of tensions are affecting the Near and Middle East, Africa, Central and South America. In the Near and Middle East, confrontation and tension still continue between the Arab nations and Israel over a solution to the Middle East conflict of 1967 and the efforts of the United States and the Soviet Union and other countries to achieve peace have so far not succeeded. In Africa, rivalry between Africans over racial problems still continues. In this situation, the People's Republic of China has positively carried out its African diplomacy under a flexible policy based on its five peace principles and has established diplomatic relations with such countries as Ethiopia and Nigeria in the past one year. In Central and South America, although it had been expected that leftist revolutionary movements in various countries would advance in the wake of the establishment of a socialist regime in Chile in the 1970 elections, they simply continued to ebb and flow. However, it is noteworthy that the upsurge of nationalism in this region is remarkable and that the trend toward seeking economic self-reliance by disengaging from American influence is growing strong.
4. Changes in the international economy
The U.S. economy had been in a state of what is called stagflation since several years before, with prices increasing amid a depression, and confidence in the dollar falling. The balance of international payments of the United States worsened greatly in 1970 and, in August 1971, the United States Government eventually announced a new economic policy which included the suspension of the conversion of the dollar into gold and the imposition of an import surcharge. These measures immediately and seriously affected the international monetary setup and the currencies of key countries were ultimately floated. After some twists and turns, a currency realignment on a global scale was effected at a conference of the Group of Ten finance ministers toward the end of 1971, in which the currencies of key countries including the yen were revalued upward or downward.
As a result of the announcement of America's new economic policy, the postwar world economic order centering around the IMF and GATT, which had been consistently maintained until then, was compelled to undergo adjustment.
As in the monetary field, important moves were seen as well in the field of international trade. The free and nondiscriminatory world trade setup, which had been on trial as a result of the rise of protectionism and regionalism, was visited by a serious crisis again because the United States' new economic policy announced in August 1971 established an import surcharge system for a wide range of goods. Although the surcharge system was abolished toward the end of 1971 as part of the currency realignment mentioned above, it is difficult to say that the free trade setup has recovered completely as a result. It is feared that the tendency toward protectionism in the United States will remain.
In Europe, meantime, the European Communities moved ahead with its process of integration, and its influence is extending worldwide because of the admission of Britain and other countries. Whether this will strengthen the trend toward regionalism or prove to be a factor conductive to the strengthening of the open world economic order needs watching.